Which GOP Congressman who survived the "wave" will lose in '08?

[MarkWarner08]

I'm assuming that Robin Hayes, Deborah Pryce and Dave Reichert will survive recounts.

Here's the list of 25 Republican open seat candidates or incumbents who survived close races in 2006:

Dave Reichert, Bill Sali, John Doolittle, Jon Porter, Dean Heller, Heather Wilson, Rick Renzi, Marilyn Musgrave, Michelle Bachmann,  Mike Ferguson, Tim Walberg, Steve Chabot, Jean Schimdt, Deborah Pryce, Ric Keller Barbara Cubin, Vern Buchanan, Peter Roskan, Mark Kirk, Mark Souder, Thelma Drake, Robin Hayes, Jim Gerlach, James Walsh and, of course, former NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds.

How many will lose in 2008? Depends on candidate recruitment, national climate and who each party nominates for President.  2008 could cement the Democratic House majority for a generation, or it could be the year the majority is wiped away.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's New England and New York

Vulnerable - Multiple of these could lose

CT-02 Simmons if he somehow pulls ahead in the count for this election
CT-04 Shays - Always vulnerable
NY-25 Walsh - Had no opponent in 2004, was considered safe and just barely won anyways
NY-26 Reynolds - Bad weather, lazy opponent helped him
NY-29 Kohl - Bad weather may have helped him, Massa is a good opponent

Probably not vulnerable

NY-03 King
NY-13 Vosella

Safe

NY-23 McHugh

[Mr. Morden]

2008 could cement the Democratic House majority for a generation, or it could be the year the majority is wiped away.

Keep in mind that we haven't seen a huge net change in House seats in a presidential election year since the Reagan landslide of '84.  The big changes seem to come in midterm elections.

[Deano963]

Dave Reichert, Bill Sali, John Doolittle, Jon Porter, Dean Heller, Heather Wilson, Rick Renzi, Marilyn Musgrave, Michelle Bachmann,  Mike Ferguson, Tim Walberg, Steve Chabot, Jean Schimdt, Deborah Pryce, Ric Keller Barbara Cubin, Vern Buchanan, Peter Roskan, Mark Kirk, Mark Souder, Thelma Drake, Robin Hayes, Jim Gerlach, James Walsh and, of course, former NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds.

Wa-08 is still counting the many absentee and provisional ballots I should point out.

Deb Pryce will almost assuredly lose in '08 if Mary Jo Kilroy runs again or another Democrat who is as strong a candidate as Kilroy takes on Pryce. The only thing that saved Pryce was the abysmal turnout rate of Franklin County - 44% - well below the statewide turnout rate of 53%. If Franklin had had even a slightly higher turnout rate(2%-3%), Kilroy would have won. Turnout in '08 will be much higher due to the fact that it is a Presidential election year, so Pryce won't have that to save her again.

As far as Marilyn Musgrave and Tim Walberg go, I would like to think that those two theocrats would be vulnerable to a challenge from strong moderate Democrats, just b/c I can't fathom the idea of those two crazies serving in Congress.

Give Idahoans another two years of Bill Sali and see if they reelect him. I'm betting they won't, but they probably throw him out in favor of another more sane Republican in the primary, not a Democrat is my guess.

I actually think that Jean Schmidt's problems are all her own and not due to just the fact that she is an Ohio Republican. A strong moderate Democrat (I'm looking at you Paul) could take her out even though the district is overwhelmingly Republican due to Schmidt's uber-high negatives.

[Nym90]

Walberg in MI-7 will almost certainly be targeted. He only won by 5 percent even though the Dems spent absolutely zero money and had a weak candidate. It's a Republican leaning district but not dramatically so.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Since 1984, only 1994 and 2006 had a double digit change. The next 2 largest changes were in 1992 and 2002, redistricting years.

[Conan]

I'm assuming that Robin Hayes, Deborah Pryce and Dave Reichert will survive recounts.

Here's the list of 25 Republican open seat candidates or incumbents who survived close races in 2006:

Dave Reichert, Bill Sali, John Doolittle, Jon Porter, Dean Heller, Heather Wilson, Rick Renzi, Marilyn Musgrave, Michelle Bachmann,  Mike Ferguson, Tim Walberg, Steve Chabot, Jean Schimdt, Deborah Pryce, Ric Keller Barbara Cubin, Vern Buchanan, Peter Roskan, Mark Kirk, Mark Souder, Thelma Drake, Robin Hayes, Jim Gerlach, James Walsh and, of course, former NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds.

How many will lose in 2008? Depends on candidate recruitment, national climate and who each party nominates for President.  2008 could cement the Democratic House majority for a generation, or it could be the year the majority is wiped away.

Doolittle
Ferguson
Schmidt
Reynolds
Walsh
Gerlach
Some of the others we dont know if they even won yet, Schmidt included but shes gone by 08 either through primary, Wulsin this year, or Hackett.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Walberg in MI-7 will almost certainly be targeted. He only won by 5 percent even though the Dems spent absolutely zero money and had a weak candidate. It's a Republican leaning district but not dramatically so.

I hope you knock off that sorry son of a bitch.  (presuming we pick up another seat somewhere else to make up for it )

[Alcon]

Walberg in MI-7 will almost certainly be targeted. He only won by 5 percent even though the Dems spent absolutely zero money and had a weak candidate. It's a Republican leaning district but not dramatically so.

I hope you knock off that sorry son of a bitch.  (presuming we pick up another seat somewhere else to make up for it )

Don, we know you're slipping into the grip of...



The first step is admitting that Conrad Burns has a problem.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't know, but I predict at least a few of them will retire rather than have to endure another brutal reelection cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

To early to say, we don't know who is/isn't running against them.

[TheresNoMoney]

1) Robins Hayes (Larry Kissell just needs more money in his next campaign)

2) Dave Reichart (Darcy Burner is a good candidate and will be very dangerous if she runs again)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pryce most likely.

Walsh might if he's targeted. He'll be constantly targeted from now on, that's for sure.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy, come on, is there a popular state Senator around?

Reichert sooner or later will go down, if he survives until the next redistricting the Democrats will screw him big time.

I think Rick Renzi will be done once he's under indictment, or he'll be forced to resign and we take his open seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Democrats make a big thing of not liking Free Trade and all that, Hayes could be in a lot of trouble.

But it's too early to do more than guess.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy

My late, lamented cat would be a stronger candidate than her...

[TeePee4Prez]

Pryce most likely.

Walsh might if he's targeted. He'll be constantly targeted from now on, that's for sure.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy, come on, is there a popular state Senator around?

Reichert sooner or later will go down, if he survives until the next redistricting the Democrats will screw him big time.

For Gerlach, I'm thinking fiscally moderate-conservative, socially liberal State Sen. Connie Williams may pose a formidable challenge to him.  I'm not sure if she lives in the 6th, 7th, or even 13th for that matter, but I know her district is in that general area.  She is definitely in the Evan Bayh/Gary Hart mold and I'm sure the Mitty and AndrewBerger type Republicans would like her.

[bullmoose88]

Pryce most likely.

Walsh might if he's targeted. He'll be constantly targeted from now on, that's for sure.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy, come on, is there a popular state Senator around?

Pa 06 is actually designed as a strong republican seat...problem is, Gerlach just started to learn how to campaign. Barring a democratic landslide in 08...I think he's gonna be safe.

But Walsh, I think he's done in 08, barring a strong GOP performance in the NY presidential race...Maffei sucked as a candidate, surely the dems can find someone better.

[TeePee4Prez]

If the Democrats make a big thing of not liking Free Trade and all that, Hayes could be in a lot of trouble.

But it's too early to do more than guess.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy

My late, lamented cat would be a stronger candidate than her...

I agree.  Her one commercial telling us "What's going on down there(Washington)?" had an almost sexual innuendo even I was cracking up over.

[ottermax]

I really hoped that the Dems would have been able to gain my seat, but they failed to defeat Reichert yet again. His seat will be extremely competitive in the next election, it just depends on the candidates (at this point, even though they are still counting ballots, I'm guessing he has won).

1) Robins Hayes (Larry Kissell just needs more money in his next campaign)

2) Dave Reichart (Darcy Burner is a good candidate and will be very dangerous if she runs again)

In my opinion, Darcy Burner's campaign was a failure for the Democrats. From the people I heard, the negative ads pushed them away from voting for her. There were so many ads for this race, and it turned very bitter in the end. Many people also noted that she had no political experience, which hurt her campaign, and on the issue of taxes, she easily attacked because this district has a strong anti-tax feel. So, I would not recommend that Burner run again until she gets elected into the state legislature or some other public office.

Pryce most likely.

Walsh might if he's targeted. He'll be constantly targeted from now on, that's for sure.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy, come on, is there a popular state Senator around?

Reichert sooner or later will go down, if he survives until the next redistricting the Democrats will screw him big time.

I think Rick Renzi will be done once he's under indictment, or he'll be forced to resign and we take his open seat.

Our state is one of the great few that have bipartisan redistricting, so don't expect anytime soon for gerrymandered districts by the now overwhemlingly Democratic legislature.

[Beet]

What was Burner's position on taxes?

[ottermax]

I never actually found out. In her debate, she replied on the question by changing the topic. Based on the ads, she wanted to raise taxes.

[Keystone Phil]

Pryce most likely.

Walsh might if he's targeted. He'll be constantly targeted from now on, that's for sure.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy, come on, is there a popular state Senator around?

Reichert sooner or later will go down, if he survives until the next redistricting the Democrats will screw him big time.

For Gerlach, I'm thinking fiscally moderate-conservative, socially liberal State Sen. Connie Williams may pose a formidable challenge to him.  I'm not sure if she lives in the 6th, 7th, or even 13th for that matter, but I know her district is in that general area.  She is definitely in the Evan Bayh/Gary Hart mold and I'm sure the Mitty and AndrewBerger type Republicans would like her.

You're never beating Gerlach. Period. The man has survived everything. He will always have close races but will not go down. As for the "popular State Senator" comment, Williams would be interesting (don't know if she is in the 6th either) but I don't think she is a Bayh Dem since she always reminded me of Schwartz and Murphy. I have heard that State Senator - Andy Dinniman -  from Chester, I believe, is rumored to possibly run.

[socaldem]

A number of Republicans are definitely vulnerable:

MI-07 Walberg

This seat is numero uno on my target list.  I'd absolutely LOVE to see either moderate State Rep. Dudley Spade or his brother ex-state rep. Doug Spade (who, I believe, is blind) run.  They absolutely own Lenowee county, a GOP-leaning county in the district.  With that base, either would easily win.  Dems also could run State Senator Mark Schauer and picked up the two state assembly seats in the Jackson County part of the district.


FL-13 I expect Christine Jennings to run again mainly because of the shenanigans that may have cost her the race.  I think she'd have a decent shot.

NC-08 Robin Hayes is going to be in big trouble now that the DCCC is going to start paying attention to the contest.

PA-06 & WA-08 are going to be perennial targets.

As others have pointed out Lois Murphy and Darcy Burner were actually rather bad candidates whose main virtue was their ability to raise loads of cash.  Neither had real political experience.  While Burner may have been a good fit for the district, she was an amateur.  L. Murphy was just did not have the profile for a non-Montgomery County district.  She was lucky to get so close in '02 and, of course, the PA wave carried her as far again.

I certainly think both could be vulnerable but they require good recruits.  I would have loved to see Laura Ruderman run in WA-08 this year.  She would have won.  We may have to wait a few years, though, as all of those newly elected Eastern King County Dems mature in the legislature.

NY-25  -Definitely a target.  I hope newly reelected state senator Valesky runs.

NM-01 -I don't think Wilson's beatable in the district.  That said, I'm guessing she'll be running for senate.  In an open seat, I think Dems will win particularly since the NM GOP is a disaster.

NJ-07 -That race was incredibly and somewhat unexpectedly close.  I'm not sure it was the best year for Dems in NJ.  Stender was a good candidate, but there are a few (senator Karcher) who would be better.

NV-03 -Tessa Hafen did really well.  If dems spent less money on Lois Murphy and more on Hafen and Stender, we would have been two more seats up in the House.  I'm not sure if she runs again so soon.  Better that she find a local office to hold and then run for the new seat added after redistricting.

[Keystone Phil]

If the Democrats make a big thing of not liking Free Trade and all that, Hayes could be in a lot of trouble.

But it's too early to do more than guess.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy

My late, lamented cat would be a stronger candidate than her...

I agree.  Her one commercial telling us "What's going on down there(Washington)?" had an almost sexual innuendo even I was cracking up over.

I think you were the only one seeing that but uh...I love how suddenly Murphy went from being the guarenteed Congresswoman-elect who would totally own Gerlach to one of the worst candidates out there. Put up anyone you'd like. Let PA 6 be a perennial target - it will be a perennial waste of time, energy and money.

[TeePee4Prez]

If the Democrats make a big thing of not liking Free Trade and all that, Hayes could be in a lot of trouble.

But it's too early to do more than guess.

We can get Gerlach with a stronger candidate than Lois Murphy

My late, lamented cat would be a stronger candidate than her...

I agree.  Her one commercial telling us "What's going on down there(Washington)?" had an almost sexual innuendo even I was cracking up over.

I think you were the only one seeing that but uh...I love how suddenly Murphy went from being the guarenteed Congresswoman-elect who would totally own Gerlach to one of the worst candidates out there. Put up anyone you'd like. Let PA 6 be a perennial target - it will be a perennial waste of time, energy and money.

Well, I think Connie Williams or Andrew Dinniman would be strong opponents.  Problem is we will be oh so close, yet far due to the nature of the district.  You have a liberal Main Line/Montco and a conservative rural rest of district.  Unlike PA 7 and PA 8, there aren't many swing voters in PA 6.  It's really a matter of turnout and Gerlach learned how to campaign and did well at painitng Lois an ultra liberal while she had nothing to come back with.  PA 6 is one we should have put away and didn't.  Still like I said, we got PA 4 (Hart) and PA 8 (Fitzpatrick) in our column and these losses will make it more difficult for the GOP overall statewide.   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP shouldn't have complete control over the next redistricting, which hopefully means we won't get a montrosity like the current map, and Gerlach can be taken out much easier.