2022 French legislatives

[Coldstream]

It’ll be interesting to see whether Le Pen can finally make a breakthrough at the legislative level, or whether the run off dooms her party like it did in 2017. I sneakily think that the two round system make allow the PS/LR to survive again because Macron voters would support people from those parties over RN/LFI candidates.

[Coldstream]

I’m not sure what the PS gain by allying with LFI, I have to imagine most of their remaining MP’s would rather see Macron in charge than Melenchon. Just seems to be a pointless suicide attempt, unless they are completely bankrupt.

The remaining sensibles in PS would be better off joining with Macron, trying to take over the LREM machinery by outnumbering the ex-LR types and then trying to beat Phillippe in the grand primary of the centre in 2027 to ensure there’s a centre left standard bearer in 2027. It probably wouldn’t work, but it’s a lot better an idea than becoming thralls to Melenchon.

[Coldstream]

Hopefully this leads to a unified left primary in 2027 which is won by someone untainted by the failures and baggage of Melenchon & PS.

[Coldstream]

Is it possible to get a breakdown of the 11 NUPES dissidents? Ie are they mostly ex-Socialist Party MP’s or something else?