2022 French legislatives

[Lechasseur]

Union Populaire at this point frankly

Like what a joke

[Zinneke]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

[LAKISYLVANIA]

BYE BYE CAZENEUVE!

Down with the PS crocodiles

[jaichind]

Harris poll has

LREM   338-378
RN        65-95
LR        35-65
FI         25-45
PS+     20-40
EELV     1-5

I assume RN will get a lot of seats due to a second-round alliance with RI?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Kuddo's for the French Left to unite. You're now my favorite alliance with the best platform for any party globally (or at least one of the best platforms).

https://twitter.com/faureolivier/status/1521441490790227969

It's a historic day and a historic agreement! Faure (PS) mentions 3 may 1936.

[S019]

BYE BYE CAZENEUVE!

Down with the PS crocodiles

The departure of senior PS figures is not good news and it undermines the ability to build a functional, pro-European center-left in the future, which is one of the many reasons that I opposed this pact. I'd still support PS, but I hate Melenchon and cheering on the replacement of the center left by Melenchon is just disgusting.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

BYE BYE CAZENEUVE!

Down with the PS crocodiles

The departure of senior PS figures is not good news and it undermines the ability to build a functional, pro-European center-left in the future, which is one of the many reasons that I opposed this pact. I'd still support PS, but I hate Melenchon and cheering on the replacement of the center left by Melenchon is just disgusting.

It's good news because the ones who sabotage the left now are left.

Also being a senior figure of a party that gets like 1.5% in presidential election, is something i truly really care about.

[Oryxslayer]

Harris poll has

LREM   338-378
RN        65-95
LR        35-65
FI         25-45
PS+     20-40
EELV     1-5

I assume RN will get a lot of seats due to a second-round alliance with RI?

Less that and more the case that, as I hope I have shown, the Far Right now has around 100 seats with massive pluralities/majorities based on round one. Normalization, voter concentration, and perceived abandonment by the metropole all mean that RN would have to work overtime to lose these seats.

Said Harris poll can be found here. They did not test the appropriate Left Front Unity list, likely because of the fluidity during response sampling.







Note the near 33-33-33 split, which is essentially the same as round 1. The formation of a full left unity list also pushes some Macron -> Minor Left back to LREM.

[Oryxslayer]

Also for some reason, I guess cliental, Harris polled the PACA region - aka Provence. The numbers here are near-identical to round one. There are 42 seats here, and if the numbers resemble round 1 like suggested, then RN+ will win around half the seats.

[parochial boy]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

Time to get the old classics out!

[Zinneke]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

Time to get the old classics out!

https://www.legorafi.fr/2022/04/10/emmanuel-macron-jappelle-solennellement-manuel-valls-a-arreter-son-harcelement-par-sms/

https://twitter.com/le_gorafi/status/861917283551203328

https://twitter.com/le_gorafi/status/1249761985115426827

[MaxQue]

So right now it's PCF-EELV-LFI. With NPA and possibly PS joining in? Genuinely impressive. Great news.

NPA or PS, as the NPA will leave if the PS is in.

[Former President tack50]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

On his defence, there's probably no one better to represent the "French abroad in Spain+Portugal" constituency. A political failure in both countries, perfect for the job!

[Oryxslayer]

The Socialist Party has reached a tentative agreement with the LFI Unity List. PS will have an internal party vote tomorrow to accept or reject it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

[Coldstream]

Hopefully this leads to a unified left primary in 2027 which is won by someone untainted by the failures and baggage of Melenchon & PS.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

When we can expect to see candidate's lists?

[parochial boy]

When we can expect to see candidate's lists?

Single member constituencies, so not lists. But...

https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1521883162950918146

This is a map of the constituncies agreed with the PS, PCF, EELV and others.

Lots of the choices are sensible - eg lots of green ones in Bordeaux, Lyon, or around Grenoble which all have Green mayors therefore better local networks. But none in say, Toulouse, which has a right wing mayor bit was very strong for Mélenchon. Similarly, lots of PCF where they have incumbents in the 93 or Puy-de-Dôme; or areas of traditional strength.

Based on Tony's map on the presidential election thread, I tend to think they should have given more to EELV in the Savoies - strong territory for a pro-European and ecologist left. But well, a few changes might come but this seems to be the decision

[Oryxslayer]

When we can expect to see candidate's lists?

Single member constituencies, so not lists. But...

https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1521883162950918146

This is a map of the constituncies agreed with the PS, PCF, EELV and others.

Lots of the choices are sensible - eg lots of green ones in Bordeaux, Lyon, or around Grenoble which all have Green mayors therefore better local networks. But none in say, Toulouse, which has a right wing mayor bit was very strong for Mélenchon. Similarly, lots of PCF where they have incumbents in the 93 or Puy-de-Dôme; or areas of traditional strength.

Based on Tony's map on the presidential election thread, I tend to think they should have given more to EELV in the Savoies - strong territory for a pro-European and ecologist left. But well, a few changes might come but this seems to be the decision

I mean, that's one way to look at it. How I see it is Melenchon/LFI looking to lock up some of the likeliest opportunities for themselves in case this thing doesn't pan out, like Harris suggests. The urban Lyon, Marseilles, Toulouse, Nantes, and Grenoble seats - among others - presently held by LREM+ which Melenchon won by substantial margins - are mostly reserved for LFI. Same with a good chunk best target seats not held be the left in the Ile-de-France, such as 3/4 non-left-held S-S-D seats. EELV are getting a areas that should be safe for LREM+, and I'm not sure what the point of negotiating for seats in Aisne or Aude for example given that the Far Right is likely to be sweeping those areas.  

[MaxQue]

When we can expect to see candidate's lists?

Single member constituencies, so not lists. But...

https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1521883162950918146

This is a map of the constituncies agreed with the PS, PCF, EELV and others.

Lots of the choices are sensible - eg lots of green ones in Bordeaux, Lyon, or around Grenoble which all have Green mayors therefore better local networks. But none in say, Toulouse, which has a right wing mayor bit was very strong for Mélenchon. Similarly, lots of PCF where they have incumbents in the 93 or Puy-de-Dôme; or areas of traditional strength.

Based on Tony's map on the presidential election thread, I tend to think they should have given more to EELV in the Savoies - strong territory for a pro-European and ecologist left. But well, a few changes might come but this seems to be the decision

No green in Toulouse make sense, given how the local PS and Greens hate each other due to the last  municipal election. A bit like the LR tendency to solve fights between two local LR candidates by giving the constituency to a UDI or a DVD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on Tony's map on the presidential election thread, I tend to think they should have given more to EELV in the Savoies - strong territory for a pro-European and ecologist left. But well, a few changes might come but this seems to be the decision

Looks like my constituency will have a PCF candidate! Hilarious. Obviously there's no shot of winning there, though I'd be curious to see how well the NUPES^TM can do there. Last time FI got 10.73%, PS 4.32%, and two ecologists together got 3.47%. So in a decent setting, a united left candidate should be able to get over 20%. Probably still not enough for the runoff unless LR and RN really screw each other over.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

'NUPES'. Jesus, and I thought 'Belle Alliance populaire' was silly.

[parochial boy]

I mean, that's one way to look at it. How I see it is Melenchon/LFI looking to lock up some of the likeliest opportunities for themselves in case this thing doesn't pan out, like Harris suggests. The urban Lyon, Marseilles, Toulouse, Nantes, and Grenoble seats - among others - presently held by LREM+ which Melenchon won by substantial margins - are mostly reserved for LFI. Same with a good chunk best target seats not held be the left in the Ile-de-France, such as 3/4 non-left-held S-S-D seats. EELV are getting a areas that should be safe for LREM+, and I'm not sure what the point of negotiating for seats in Aisne or Aude for example given that the Far Right is likely to be sweeping those areas. 

Of their three Lyon constituencies, they've got the 2nd and 3rd which cover the 1st; 4th and 9th Arrondissements for the former and the 8th and most of the 7th - which were the parts of the city that Mélenchon won. Notably, neighbourhoods like the 1st, the Croix-Rousse (in the 4th) and La Guillotière in the 7th are the hipster/gentrification neighbourhoods. Overall a good fit for the Greens.

In IdF it wouldn't have made much sense to give them much in the 93 as Jadot underperformed his national result there. However they've got a lot in Paris intra-muros, which is more friendly territory. Including notably the likes of Paris-5 which covers the very green friendly and hipster 10th arrondissement; or Paris-9 where Sandrine Rousseau and where both LFI and EELV are strong

Their one in Nantes in Loire-Atlantique 6, which is the South of the city; which is quite sociall mixed, some gentrification, some more working class areas, but is one of the stronger parts of the city for the left even if not instinctively the most Green aligned. The PS obviously get Nantes central because of Johanna Rolland, like they get the best of Rennes thanks to Nathalise Appéré. They've also been given some pretty OK rural ones, like néo-ruraux central in the Drôme or the old Trégor Rouge in Côtes-d'Armor.

So overall, they have been given a lot of ones that make sense for their profile. A few choices that aren't so obvious but presumably have their reasons; and lots of no hopers because lots of seats just simply are no hopers. I don't get the feeling that they have been particularly parked in the most useless ones overall.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean, that's one way to look at it. How I see it is Melenchon/LFI looking to lock up some of the likeliest opportunities for themselves in case this thing doesn't pan out, like Harris suggests. The urban Lyon, Marseilles, Toulouse, Nantes, and Grenoble seats - among others - presently held by LREM+ which Melenchon won by substantial margins - are mostly reserved for LFI. Same with a good chunk best target seats not held be the left in the Ile-de-France, such as 3/4 non-left-held S-S-D seats. EELV are getting a areas that should be safe for LREM+, and I'm not sure what the point of negotiating for seats in Aisne or Aude for example given that the Far Right is likely to be sweeping those areas.  

Of their three Lyon constituencies, they've got the 2nd and 3rd which cover the 1st; 4th and 9th Arrondissements for the former and the 8th and most of the 7th - which were the parts of the city that Mélenchon won. Notably, neighbourhoods like the 1st, the Croix-Rousse (in the 4th) and La Guillotière in the 7th are the hipster/gentrification neighbourhoods. Overall a good fit for the Greens.

In IdF it wouldn't have made much sense to give them much in the 93 as Jadot underperformed his national result there. However they've got a lot in Paris intra-muros, which is more friendly territory. Including notably the likes of Paris-5 which covers the very green friendly and hipster 10th arrondissement; or Paris-9 where Sandrine Rousseau and where both LFI and EELV are strong

Their one in Nantes in Loire-Atlantique 6, which is the South of the city; a bit more working class / socially mixed but is one of the stronger parts of the city for the left even if not instinctively the most Green aligned. They've also been given some pretty OK rural ones, like néo-ruraux central in the Drôme or the old Trégor Rouge in Côtes-d'Armor.

So overall, they have been given a lot of ones that make sense for their profile. A few choices that aren't so obvious but presumably have their reasons; and lots of no hopers because lots of seats just simply are no hopers. I don't get the feeling that they have been particularly parked in the most useless ones overall.

All I'm saying is that of the 86 seats Melenchon won in Round 1 that are not part of an overseas department or territory, LFI is allotted 58 of them based on this map.

Of the 64 mainland seats that a combined left alliance should not be losing under any circumstances, LFI is taking 42.

Obviously some of this is cause of incumbents, both for LFI and the other parties. However, of the 60 Melenchon round 1 mainland seats that a left party did not win in 2017 - even if said incumbent defected later - 43 are for LFI.

In these areas, it shouldn't really matter if you have a base or not - if you are cross-endorsed by the rest of the Left then there should be the votes for anyone to defeat LREM+.

[Hash]

Their one in Nantes in Loire-Atlantique 6, which is the South of the city; which is quite sociall mixed, some gentrification, some more working class areas, but is one of the stronger parts of the city for the left even if not instinctively the most Green aligned. The PS obviously get Nantes central because of Johanna Rolland, like they get the best of Rennes thanks to Nathalise Appéré. They've also been given some pretty OK rural ones, like néo-ruraux central in the Drôme or the old Trégor Rouge in Côtes-d'Armor.

Nitpick: the apparent EELV seat in the Côtes-d'Armor is not the Trégor Rouge (that's the fourth constituency), but rather Marc Le Fur's seat, the third constituency (Lamballe, Loudéac, the Mené), which is also probably the most hopeless seat for the left in the department. Realistically, the first and fourth constituencies are winnable for the left, all the others are probably longshots.

Anyway, I imagine the real objective for EELV is to win at the very least enough seats to recreate a parliamentary group (so 15) and the number of winnable seats being thrown around is 30, which the upper limit of optimistic projections.

My main interest at the moment which I'm surprised no one else has discussed is how many dissident candidates (mostly PS) there will be and what their weight in their constituencies is. - I imagine there will be quite a few. For example, in Paris-15, Hidalgo ally and ephemeral PS deputy Lamia El Aaraje was passed over in favour of LFI's Danielle Simonnet, and she could run as a relatively strong dissident (she defeated Simonnet in a very low turnout by-election in 2021 which was later annulled).