2022 French legislatives

[patzer]

Gonna go against the grain of predictions here- I think it's possible that Ensemble and NUPES end up a similar amount of votes each in round 2 and therefore a similar number of seats each, given that poll suggesting RN transfers leaning towards NUPES.

Of course that poll could have been wrong, but something along the lines of ENS 240, NUP 230, RN 50, LR 40 would not surprise me.

[jaichind]

Gonna go against the grain of predictions here- I think it's possible that Ensemble and NUPES end up a similar amount of votes each in round 2 and therefore a similar number of seats each, given that poll suggesting RN transfers leaning towards NUPES.

Of course that poll could have been wrong, but something along the lines of ENS 240, NUP 230, RN 50, LR 40 would not surprise me.

The main problem with this reasoning is that there are a lot more ENS-RN runoffs than NUP-RN runoffs.  So even if the level of the "support" between ENS and NUP is similar ENS will have a lot more seats since RN will clearly have a much lower strike rate than all to other party blocs.  By the reverse logic, LR will most likely have the best strike rate given the fact that they will benefit from the most number of vote transfers (ENS and RN will vote for LR over each other and NUP).

[jaichind]

My final quick seat-by-seat eyeball guesses knowing nothing about the history of the candidates or seats.

ENS          269
pro-ENS        4
NUP          166
pro-NUP      12
Other Left     5
LR              60
UDI              3
pro-LR          6
RN              36
pro-RN          2
Others         13

[Andrea]

Jean-Victor Castor won in Guyane 1.

Davy Rimane (NUPES) ousts incumbent  Lénaïck Adam (LREM) in Guyane 2.

[Logical]

My dumb vibes based prediction

ENS+ 250
NUP   195
LR+     70
RN       37
DVG    10
OTH    15

[Oryxslayer]

Tightish race in Guadalupe 3 - the one with the RN candidate.

Marcellin Nadeau is the apparent winner in Martinique 2.

Jean-Philippe Nilor is the winner in Martinique 4 vs the founder of the Martinique independence movement.

[Andrea]

Christian Baptiste is winning over Justine Bénin, state secretary for the sea.

Olivier Serva is cruising towards re-election in Guadaleupe 1.

[Hash]

Not looking particularly good for Justine Bénin, the newly appointed secretary of state for the sea, in Guadeloupe-2. If defeated, she'd need to leave cabinet.

[Oryxslayer]

Jiovanny William apparent winner in Martinique 1. This means all Martinique Independence candidates were defeated by Péyi-A candidates.

Oliver Serva is the apparent winner in Guadalupe 1.

Justine Benin is the apparent loser, and by perhaps a 20-point margin, to Christian Baptiste in Guadalupe 2.

Max Mathiasin, MoDem dissident, is the apparent winner over RN in Guadalupe 3 by about a 6 point margin.

Johnny Hajjar (Martinique Progressive Party) wins Martinique 3.

[Oryxslayer]

Frantz Gumbs, the Ensemble candidate who almost got a majority in round 1, is projected to win Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy in a landslide of epic proportions, so he can be declared the winner.

And that's everything until the Polynesian territories and departments close in several hours. 

[Oryxslayer]

Bar charts:



https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538349057592156161?s=20&t=HahIswS1u...

[Biden 2024]

Guiana and Guadeloupe look pretty fantastic for NUPES so far.

[Andrea]

LREM got Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin constituency over the dissident LR candidate.

Tavini won all three seats in Polynesie!

[Zanas]

For now, every increased turnout in the overseas was to oppose LREM, so let's see if it's the same in metropole

[Logical]

NUPES backed separatists appear to have won all 3 seats in French Polynesia. An upset as ENS backed autonomists were expected to win 2 out of the 3 seats.

[Andrea]

The winner in Polynésie française 1 is only 21 year old.

[jaichind]

The winner in Polynésie française 1 is only 21 year old.

It seems he overcame a 40.9 vs 20.1 first-round deficit to win.  Amazing.

[Zanas]

Both Nouvelle-Calédonie seats stay loyalist-ENS

[warandwar]

The winner in Polynésie française 1 is only 21 year old.

Incredible win. Many of these colonial elections don't look especially parochial.

[Mike88]

In France, turnout at 12pm, is actually up 0.6% compared with the first round, 19%. It's also an increase of 1.2% compared with the second round in 2017.

However, it's still early and we'll have to wait for the afternoon update to see if the trend is clear.

[Oryxslayer]

The winner in Polynésie française 1 is only 21 year old.

Incredible win. Many of these colonial elections don't look especially parochial.

I mean, setting aside biases for a moment, most of these candidates didn't have a particular national alliance pre-election. They just said they would sit in NUPES cause they are left and NUPES is Left - if NUPES splits then they'll find a new faction to align with since their parties are too small for a viable voice. All 8 in Martinique said they would align with NUPES after round 1 for instance.

A lot of these winners are autonomists, sovereigntist, independists, or a reaction to those movements. Which should perhaps be expected after a pandemic sapped all tourism money, exposing faultlines that have been there for decades. The metropole politicians have never really cared about the islands besides a few pet issues that crop up, it just took there being an incumbent for these sections of voters to have someone to direct their feelings against at the ballot box. And the nationalists promise that such feelings can go away in the future - so why wouldn't you vote for them.

[warandwar]

The winner in Polynésie française 1 is only 21 year old.

Incredible win. Many of these colonial elections don't look especially parochial.

I mean, setting aside biases for a moment, most of these candidates didn't have a particular national alliance pre-election. They just said they would sit in NUPES cause they are left and NUPES is Left - if NUPES splits then they'll find a new faction to align with since their parties are too small for a viable voice. All 8 in Martinique said they would align with NUPES after round 1 for instance.

A lot of these winners are autonomists, sovereigntist, independists, or a reaction to those movements. Which should perhaps be expected after a pandemic sapped all tourism money, exposing faultlines that have been there for decades. The metropole politicians have never really cared about the islands besides a few pet issues that crop up, it just took there being an incumbent for these sections of voters to have someone to direct their feelings against at the ballot box. And the nationalists promise that such feelings can go away in the future - so why wouldn't you vote for them.

Independence movements in the colonies ebb and flow. Plenty of reasons to not support them, or continue to support incumbents - especially when districts are gerrymandered for such purposes (the polynesian wins are pretty remarkable here). But clearly some regional trends here, outside of NUPES, that go beyond "local interests" and the like.

[jaichind]

It seems like in places like Guadeloupe and Martinique NUP ran multiple candidates and then just accept the winner into the NUP.  Is this like Japan where the LDP sometimes back several LDP candidates for a seat and retroactively nominates the winner under the rule of "if you win you are LDP"?  Is this where it is 'if you win you are NUP"?

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like in places like Guadeloupe and Martinique NUP ran multiple candidates and then just accept the winner into the NUP.  Is this like Japan where the LDP sometimes back several LDP candidates for a seat and retroactively nominates the winner under the rule of "if you win you are LDP"?  Is this where it is 'if you win you are NUP"?

Outside of Polynesia, NUPES barely endorsed. Here are the AmericaElects round 1 charts for Martinique and Guadeloupe, which are useful in this moment. If you look closely, you will see that NUPES barely had any endorsements before round 1 which would have allowed the candidates to wrap themselves in the national brand - same with Ensemble for that matter. But now post-election everyone is stating they will join the pact. It's just practical politics. You need to be part of a group of meaningful size to have any voice, so these politicians need to join a national block. They were elected against the incumbent regime so Ensemble is out, and most are left wing so the Right is out. Many in the past have caucused with the PS+ block for the same reasons. This is different from say Reunion where NUPES officially endorsed a slate of candidates that mostly advanced, some of which were from local parties.

In effect, NUPES isn't creating winners, but winners are choosing it afterwards cause it is the practical option. If NUPES collapses tomorrow, there will probably be some considerations over which of the potentially four left groups they would want to join.

[Oryxslayer]

Additionally, the results in Wallis and Futuna have not been mentioned yet. Both candidates stated their intention to caucus with Ensemble, similar to how the how the 8 Martinique candidates looked to NUPES, but I would categorize them both as localists. Mikaele Seo, the candidate of the local majority, won by 16 votes.