2022 French legislatives

[Oryxslayer]

Ifop's model. Their MOEs are doing a lot of work here since it's all but guaranteed the others hit the top end of Ifop's estimate given the first round in the overseas departments.

[DL]

Does it really matter that much in practical terms whether Macron has just over or just below 289 seats given that 99.9999% of his policies are things LR would agree with and vote for?

[JimJamUK]

How many second rounds are Generation.s and Ecology Generation competing in, and are they likely to win any seats?

[Oryxslayer]

How many second rounds are Generation.s and Ecology Generation competing in, and are they likely to win any seats?

Generation.S was nominated by NUPES in 12 seats. They advanced in 10. I would say they are likely to win 4 seats at minimum.

Generation Ecology was nominated by NUPES in 9 seats. They advanced in 6. I would say they are likely to win 1 seat at minimum.

Does it really matter that much in practical terms whether Macron has just over or just below 289 seats given that 99.9999% of his policies are things LR would agree with and vote for?

I mean it's often forgotten today but LR is it's own political coalition. Whereas Macron's alliance reaches from the center and liberal left to the traditional conservative right, The LR alliance goes goes from overlapping with Ensemble to overlapping with Le Pen's alliance and even more with Zemmour's - the latter mainly in the south. Pécresse and Ciotti for example are in the same party.

That all said, it would be very funny if the main lasting effect of Melenchon's coalition is forcing LREM and LR into the merger rumored to have been explored in the leadup to round 1.

[Babeuf]

If they’re close enough on their own (say 280 seats or so) they could also govern without a formal coalition and pick and choose between trying to get LR or PS votes to get them over the hump depending on the policy.

[jaichind]

Ifop's model. Their MOEs are doing a lot of work here since it's all but guaranteed the others hit the top end of Ifop's estimate given the first round in the overseas departments.

This poll did have some breakdowns

https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/119275-Rapport.pdf

It has

               NUP          ENS            LR             RN
NUP          96              3                               1
ENS            3             95               1             1
LR-UDI        6            46              43             6
REC            4             13               9            74
RN              5              4               2             89

But critically it does now show how RN voters would vote when faced with a NUP vs ENS runoff.  Likewise, it does not show how ENS voters would vote in a NUP vs LR runoff.  Going by their seat count for NUP which I find high, I suspect these votes would break better for NUP than one would expect.

[Oryxslayer]

[Zaybay]

Ifop's model. Their MOEs are doing a lot of work here since it's all but guaranteed the others hit the top end of Ifop's estimate given the first round in the overseas departments.

This poll did have some breakdowns

https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/119275-Rapport.pdf

It has

               NUP          ENS            LR             RN
NUP          96              3                               1
ENS            3             95               1             1
LR-UDI        6            46              43             6
REC            4             13               9            74
RN              5              4               2             89

But critically it does now show how RN voters would vote when faced with a NUP vs ENS runoff.  Likewise, it does not show how ENS voters would vote in a NUP vs LR runoff.  Going by their seat count for NUP which I find high, I suspect these votes would break better for NUP than one would expect.

From a different pollster:
https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1537475956172103682?t=wRUVdkfkLEEoCYq3f...

[jaichind]

From a different pollster:
https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1537475956172103682?t=wRUVdkfkLEEoCYq3f...

Wow.  If this is true then I can definitely see how NUP can outperform in terms of seat count and drive ENS out of majority territory.  If true this also means that a good part of the RN vote is the anti-system vote and not a right-wing vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At long, long last, here is is!



I hope you can see why it took so long to make, as there are so many weird idiosyncratic scenarios and every time another one came out I had to remake the legend to account for it. I also gave up on distinguishing between NUPES candidates and non-NUPES left-wingers, as I really didn't know how to depict that clearly (I might make another map later to show the respective success of NUPES candidates and dissidents at some point later). Similarly, I counted Ensemble dissidents as still part of Ensemble (as Vojetta shows, it's not like they aren't amenable to come back to the fold). Also, NDA is counted as far-right, because lbr he's been Le Pen-lite for years now. And of course, a lot of the designations for DTOM candidates are highly questionable given the mess that is politics over there, but I did my best.

Here's how they break down:

Left vs ENS: 285
ENS vs Far-right: 108
Left vs Far-right: 65
Left vs Right: 31
Right vs Far-Right: 31
ENS vs Right: 23
Left vs Left: 8
Left vs Other: 6
ENS vs Other: 3
Right vs Other: 2
ENS vs ENS: 1
Right vs Right: 1
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Far-right: 5
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Right: 2
Triangulaire Left/Left/ENS: 1
Left Elected: 4
ENS Elected: 1

So that's 564 duels, 8 triangulaires, and 5 elected outright (note that this last figure would be 14 if not for the turnout requirements).

Overall, that means Ensemble qualified in 429 constituencies (74%), the left in 407 (71%), the far-right in 209 (36%), the right in 90 (16%), and miscellaneous others (mostly local regionalists) in 11 (2%).

Finally, here's the breakdown by macro-region (as once again there were major differences between IdF, DTOMs, and the rest).

Non-IdF continental (438 seats, incl. 431 duels, 6 triangulaires, 1 elected)
Left vs ENS: 193
ENS vs Far-right: 105
Left vs Far-right: 60
Right vs Far-Right: 30
Left vs Right: 23
ENS vs Right: 16
Left vs Left: 3
ENS vs Other: 1
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Far-right: 5
Triangulaire Left/Left/ENS: 1
ENS Elected: 1

Ile-de-France (97 seats, incl. 91 duels, 2 triangulaires, 4 elected)
Left vs ENS: 73
Left vs Far-right: 5
Left vs Right: 4
Left vs Left: 3
ENS vs Right: 3
ENS vs Far-right: 2
Right vs Far-Right: 1
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Right: 2
Left Elected: 4

DTOMs (27 seats, all duels)
Left vs ENS: 9
Left vs Other: 6
Left vs Right: 4
ENS vs Right: 3
Left vs Left: 2
ENS vs Far-right: 1
ENS vs ENS: 1
Right vs Right: 1

French Abroad (11 seats, all duels)
Left vs ENS: 10
ENS vs Right: 1

Corsica (4 seats, all duels)
ENS vs Other: 2
Right vs Other: 2

[jaichind]

At long, long last, here is is!

 

Thanks.  Did you get to do a seat-by-seat projection?  I wanted to compare what you came up with to my very dumb eyeball approach.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At long, long last, here is is!

 

Thanks.  Did you get to do a seat-by-seat projection?  I wanted to compare what you came up with to my very dumb eyeball approach.

No, I'm not even going to hazard a guess. With so many unknowns, that's all the projections are.

[jaichind]

Elabe projection seems to have LR and RN doing reasonably well

[Oryxslayer]

Elabe projection seems to have LR and RN doing reasonably well

This one looks very similar to my own one - will post tomorrow in case new info changes things - though I have mine at lower MOEs.

[Oryxslayer]

And Cluster 17. Perhaps the highest numbers for the non-major pillars, I don't think the parliamentary right even have the candidates qualified and in position to win their projected seats.

[jaichind]

And Cluster 17. Perhaps the highest numbers for the non-major pillars, I don't think the parliamentary right even have the candidates qualified and in position to win their projected seats.

I think they do if you include UDI and various pro-LR independents.  But yes, at the upper end of their projection for LR+ of 75 would mean an almost clean sweep of LR+ candidates.  Amazing projection.

[RodPresident]

Will this legislature last full term if Ensemble fails to get absolute majority?

[Oryxslayer]

Will this legislature last full term if Ensemble fails to get absolute majority?

Given that such an election would be a referendum on the perpetually-unpopular office of the President, it's probably likely to last a full term. Arguably this is one of the factors behind the third cohabitiation. Barring a total surprise, Ensemble's lower bound is still close enough to the majority line to govern at least initially alone in a minority. Or alternatively there could be politiking with LR/UDI - up to and including the potential merger - given the first round results suggest a hard floor of about 45 which easily gives the majority. Or alternatively there is PS/EELV who each are probably getting 20ish seats, but that is less probable.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538192658975363073?s=20&t=Ox1v98PQV...

[Philly D.]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538192658975363073?s=20&t=Ox1v98PQV...

This doesn't look auspicious for Ensemble and suggests the NUPES vote is motivated.

The heat wave in France is also bad for Ensemble; it will depress senior turnout. The closest parallel is the Quebec 2008 provincial election. Then, it was assumed that Jean Charest and the PLQ would waltz from a minority government into a majority similar to that of 2003 (76 of 125 seats.) They "only" won 66 seats; the ADQ salvaged 7 seats rather than the 3-4 expected and PQ surpassed all expectations with 51 rather than 40-45 (and PQ+QS votes together would have won outright.) The turnout went below 60% from above 70% in 2007. In the outer regions it only dipped slightly, while it plummeted in the Montreal-Quebec corridor. There, there was a precocious cold snap with temperatures as low as -30C during the day. In the outer regions, the cold snap was not anywhere as strongly felt, and the PLQ actually took five seats straight from the PQ!

Of course, the electoral systems are different. But ENS is much stronger with seniors and depends more on them than the PLQ ever did. And the hottest areas seem to be those with more NUPES-ENS swing races...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1538192658975363073?s=20&t=Ox1v98PQV...

This doesn't look auspicious for Ensemble and suggests the NUPES vote is motivated.

I wouldn't read much into these personally, especially since there's 2 Ensemble, 0 NUPES-endorsed, and 1 unopposed (cause opponent withdrew) candidate in this set of 10 seats. I'm not projecting the overseas seats cause they are weird and parochial - we are all very certain Union Loyaliste will sweep New Caledonia, but thats not cause Macron backed them. More interesting would be the expat seats.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction basically comes down to this: who has the bigger universe of voters in a runoff situation? This includes both those that showed up to vote in round 1, and those who did not in some circumstances where the electorate may change between rounds. This is not a series of nationwide absolutes. Two similar runoffs in the north, south or a city could produce varying outcomes – to list three common examples. There are six common runoff situations, and each deserves a brief analysis.

An additional note also the NUPES alliance. Around 60% of NUPES runoffs have LFI candidates, and the remaining 40% are mostly held by the three other ‘large’ members of the pact. I believe there will be some variation in the approachability of the various parties. In some runoffs versus RN, and in specific places LR/UDI+, the lack of a LFI label will benefit in terms of transfers. In other areas a LFI label may consolidate the opposition more around Ensemble than if the candidate was from say the EELV. In other areas the uncompromising LFI candidate would be better. In the majority of circumstance though, this variation should matter little, but it deserves mention cause every seat is different.
 
Ensemble vs NUPES: The most common result has perhaps the most variance. Ensemble has many more potential runoff voters when examined in a broad universalist perspective. This itself is not absolute: the new data on marginal RN transfers has been incorporated, and usually there is some minor leftist party. Opposing them though is Ensemble, with the help of LR/UDI+ voters, who should be the most reliable in these low turnout contests. The Cluster 17 projection likely overestimating the Right, and LR/UDI+ outperforming their round 1 polling gives solid evidence to bet on this group in situations of uncertainty.

Even these though are far from absolute. Areas where RN voters are likely to be “LR but the first priority is our identity” are more likely to see abstention or a net Ensemble transfer when compared to northern areas that are feeling the economic crunch. How does one weight for secondary leftists: do we say they go NUPES cause of ideological closeness, or do we say they don’t cause these voters saw a viable NUPES candidate on their ballot and conscientiously said no to that option. In many seats that Ensemble needs they have to leapfrog NUPES from round 1, and while there is LR/UDI+ voters often there to allow this change, a slight change in turnout can flip results. This isn’t even mentioning R! voters who have the same divide as RN but to the nth degree, and localist parties who voters loyalties we can only guess at. In short, there are a lot of moving parts.
 
Ensemble vs RN: There are three categories of these seats. Northern seats that Le Pen won in round 2, Southern seats that Le Pen won, and seats that Le Pen did not win. The third category is most prominent and Ensemble is all but guaranteed to have the transfers to win in those situations. In many situations, upon analysis of last weeks results, we can even include a number of seats that Le Pen marginally won in round 2 in that third category.

Looking at the first two groups, there is a divergence. In the first, the Ensemble label is not beneficial.  We already have a data that suggests that transfers are incomplete and mixed. If RN had a large lead in round 1 in the northern seats, I often was unable to find the transfers to overcome this advantage. In the south, the distinctions between the RN and Ensemble are clearer. LR+ transfers are in my eyes less reliable, but NUPES transfers are more so.

Ensemble vs Parliamentary Right: There are only about 20 of these, so they are easier to analyze. We also have data from 2017. In many places where RN was strong in round 1 but did not advance, their voters went for LR/UDI+. Outside of Alpes-Maritime these situations have vanished with the growth of RN, so the past can only help so much. There are the seats where the Right won large pluralities in round 1 and are all but locks for round 2. There are the seats where the Right advanced but lacks transfers. Finally, there are the seats where the two parties are politically indistinguishable from the perspective of the Left, and therefore will likely lead to low-turnout runoffs.

NUPES vs RN: For simplicities sake, I will keep using the three generalized divisions used in the Ensemble vs RN section, because they still apply for different reasons. NUPES is much more likely to win Northern runoffs when compared to Ensemble. Partially this is because they mainly advanced against RN in favorable turf, partially because the distinctions between RN and their potential transfer sources are clearer here, and partially because the left has a better brand with the electorate. There are still some guaranteed losses, like the in the Douai-Lens region of Pas-de-Calais, but the situation is on average better for NUPES.

The same cannot be said of the other two regions. The situation in my eyes is worst for NUPES when voters of the Right and Ensemble can see little differences between the populists – aka LFI vs RN runoffs outside cities. While NUPES should win every runoff with RN in seats Macron won, including some conservative ones like Yonne 1, there are a few places where you have to squint and wonder if it will be closer than expected.

In the coastal non-urban conservative South, the situation is reversed that of the north. NUPES needs to be in a good position after round 1, have a more approachable candidate, or else there is a good chance of loss. LR voters here historically will opt for the Far Right, especially versus the radical left, and Ensemble voters here seem likelier to abstain or divide if not given a reason to get behind NUPES. The urban south is a different story – there RN stands no chance against the Left majority.
 
NUPES vs Parliamentary Right: NUPES loses these, though it isn’t exactly their fault. Almost all of these runoffs are in and around AURA, and/or almost all had large LR/UDI+ pluralities in round 1. Its not hard to see that conservative consolidation in conservative areas behind the dominant candidate defeats the token opposition – especially if its LFI. The two most interesting seats in this category are the ones in St. Dennis, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the end if LFI wins them both.

Parliamentary Right vs RN: The Right wins almost every one of these. Ensemble voters see a clear distinction, and they’ll outnumber the abstaining or divided NUPES transfers to lock in a LR/UDI+ victory. Many of these runoffs had strong Right positions to begin with, making the wall even more insurmountable. The only situation where they may be vulnerable is where RN starts with a large round 1 plurality and voters see little distinction between the two runoff options.



With that all said, here’s the prediction, for all 550 seats not in an overseas territory. I dare not wade into that mess, because I’m not estimating the overseas departments in part. These totals also include the few aligned candidates, like Pancher in Meuse 1 for the Right, and Vojetta in Iberia for Ensemble.

Ensemble: 270 to 300 seats. Ensemble has the dominant position but many factors can influence large numbers of seats. Majority in doubt, but a strong minority will likely be good enough.

NUPES: 150 to 175 seats. Lacks transfers in many cases, and are in some situations held back by what makes them most appealing. Biggest upside is in cities. Overall, the NUPES alliance can’t be considered a failure for not achieving its lofty ambition of winning a majority. All four major members should have enough seats to form their own groups if the faction splits. The Left is stronger overall. LFI achieves their own goal of seizing the dominant position.

RN: 35 to 50 seats. High variance because there are a large number of seats where full consolidations blocks the far right, but said consolidation is unlikely – but not impossible – to occur. Much less then what I initially thought they could win before NUPES, but still decent given precedent. Seat total almost evenly divided between the North and the South.

Parliamentary Right / LR/UDI+: 55 to 65 seats. I feel like the MOE can actually be lower, but I’m not sure where exactly to put the lower bound. The Parliamentary right experienced something similar to the various Left Parties in 2017 where a general collapse wiped away all their backbenchers and all but the most entrenched. Those who advanced had a solid foundation personally, or in terms of their seats base partisanship. The first round filtered almost out all who stood a chance a losing, leaving just the best positioned. Some still will lose, but the Right has a high ceiling and low floor.

Unaligned Left or NUPES dissenters: 4 to 7 seats.

Regionalists: 3 to 5 seats.

[Andrea]

Stéphane Lenormand  won St Pierre et Miquelon.
1329 to 1310 votes according to the live coverage on St Pierre et Miquelon 1ére.

[Oryxslayer]

Stéphane Lenormand  won St Pierre et Miquelon.
1329 to 1310 votes according to the live coverage on St Pierre et Miquelon 1ére.

It's in keeping with the island having recent close elections. Also Lenormond would have won the exact number of votes he + Michel had, and Gaston 4 less than he + Lebailley. This is something that I questioned might happen in the runoff situation,  after the round 1 results a few pages back.





Elie Califer is additionally declared victor in Guadeloupe 4, since the other runoff candidate withdrew.

[Hatman 🍁]

time to cut off their ferry service