Should Kaliningrad be returned to Germany?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, absolutely.

[TheReckoning]

Only if Alsace-Lorraine, Prussia, and Sudetenland are returned as well.

[Helsinkian]

Once Russia is defeated, it should be offered to Germany. If Germany doesn't want it, then Poland and Lithuania can partition it.

[Pericles]

Hardly any Germans live there. Yes they were expelled, but this is Russian land now. It would be a violation of their self-determination to give them to a country they are so different from.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Only if Alsace-Lorraine, Prussia, and Sudetenland are returned as well.

Fr*nch spy has been detected on German soil. Tactical sauerkraut has been deployed to neutralize this threat.

[Logical]

Germany doesn't want it. I think the best solution would be independence as the fourth Baltic state.

[The Mikado]

This is absurd, as absurd as Kaliningrad is as is.

Kaliningrad Oblast is a piece of land the size of Connecticut with a million people on it, basically all of whom are Russian. Taking it over will undoubtedly involve expelling a TON of people.

Japan retaking the southern Kurils that they still claim would be two orders of magintude easier, as the population of the Japanese claimed Southern Kurils is only 9,000-12,000 depending on whom you ask. You can imagine Japan offering everyone on the Southern Kurils $50,000 or so to relocate and a lot of people being enthusiastic to take that offer. Lot trickier when the population of the territory is a million.

[BlueSwan]

Hardly any Germans live there. Yes they were expelled, but this is Russian land now. It would be a violation of their self-determination to give them to a country they are so different from.

True, but f**k that. We are talking about Russia here. If Ukraine is supposedly a threat to Russia then Kaliningrad most certainly is a threat to its western neighbours. The west continously brings knives to gunfights. Russia threatening to take Crimea and Donbass back in 2014 could probably have been refuted with western threats of taking Kaliningrad in response.

[President Johnson]

Well, I guess Germany doesn't want it and few Germans live there. In addition, I'm not a fan of moving borders just because they once were somewhere else. We're rightfully call Putin out for doing this, so...

However, NATO and the Europeans in particular should counter Russia's ridiculous wishlist about removing American troops from the continent with counter demands, including a withdrawl of Russian nukes from Kaliningrad.

[Torrain]

Given the depopulation of ethnic Germans after annexation, and replacement with Russians, it’s hard to make the case for annexation in the current system.

Given Kalingrad provides Russia with a strategically useful bit of coastline in the middle of Europe, and allows it to sabre-rattle with the Baltic states it borders, I can’t see any militarily minded Russian leader giving it up.

The conditions to allow its return to Germany, or another of its neighbouring states would thus have to be pretty extreme. If Moscow’s authority collapsed, and we saw a partial break-up of Russian Federation (Oblasts or regions on the edge of the territory declaring independence - see Chechnya, or the post-Soviet states in the early 90s), or the country slid into bankruptcy and full-tilt economic decline, I guess they might jettison Kalingrad as an expensive trinket that was nice to have, but was now impossible to justify the cost of running/controlling.

National pride takes a kicking when you’ve been on the breadline for a while - and in such radical situations, I’d imagine many of the residents would either relish the chance to be part of a more stable nation, or flee back to one of the less-impacted regions of mainland Russia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, of course not. That sounds like something Putin would do.

[CumbrianLefty]

IIRC the Russians "unofficially" offered it to Germany after the collapse of the USSR.

For the reasons mentioned above, however, these tentative inquiries went no further.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hardly any Germans live there. Yes they were expelled, but this is Russian land now. It would be a violation of their self-determination to give them to a country they are so different from.

True, but f**k that. We are talking about Russia here. If Ukraine is supposedly a threat to Russia then Kaliningrad most certainly is a threat to its western neighbours. The west continously brings knives to gunfights. Russia threatening to take Crimea and Donbass back in 2014 could probably have been refuted with western threats of taking Kaliningrad in response.

Ukraine is a threat to the Russian government because of improvements in its own governance and its move towards the EU. Putin probably felt he could not afford to have a prosperous democracy full of ethnic Russians/Russian speakers on his border, due to what happened to east Germany.

Poland has a problem with PiS, but even there, Kaliningrad isn’t exactly held up as a model of governance. It cannot be a threat in the way Ukraine is.

[bagelman]

It's not a terrible idea, but it won't happen as it's not practical. If the expulsion of large numbers of ethnic Russians is required, doing so while respecting their human rights is very expensive. It's not morally abhorrent to suggest as Russia is the largest country in the world and has plenty of space for them, but simply forcing them out just isn't something OK to do in the modern world.

The best alternative is making it a neutral independent country, disallowed from making military alliances with Russia and watched closely.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It ought to become its own sovereign country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Over the long term its future is likely uncertain because the present population is - through a range of different methods* - essentially paid to live there and it is questionable whether this will prove sustainable beyond a certain point, but I do not think that trying to force the issue (in any direction) would be a good idea at present. At all.

But it's maybe worth thinking about that odd place, simply because its population has become used to certain things that people in the rest of Russia have not had access to due to proximity to the comparatively prosperous Baltic economies and an unusually high level of employment with Western firms (see below) and they have suddenly lost them. The place is now shut off again in the way that it was during the Cold War. This may end up having consequences at some point - but domestic ones.

_{*Not just from the Russian state either: German industrial investment, encouraged in order to foster political stability and to make any awkward questions purely hypothetical, has played a big role there as well.}

[Santander]

Yes, and Constantinople should be returned to the Greeks.

[Tintrlvr]

Over the long term its future is likely uncertain because the present population is - through a range of different methods* - essentially paid to live there and it is questionable whether this will prove sustainable beyond a certain point, but I do not think that trying to force the issue (in any direction) would be a good idea at present. At all.

But it's maybe worth thinking about that odd place, simply because its population has become used to certain things that people in the rest of Russia have not had access to due to proximity to the comparatively prosperous Baltic economies and an unusually high level of employment with Western firms (see below) and they have suddenly lost them. The place is now shut off again in the way that it was during the Cold War. This may end up having consequences at some point - but domestic ones.

_{*Not just from the Russian state either: German industrial investment, encouraged in order to foster political stability and to make any awkward questions purely hypothetical, has played a big role there as well.}

I have been very curious how recent events are viewed in Kaliningrad; much more curious than I am how they are viewed in Moscow or St. Petersburg, which get reported on a lot more.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In case you didn't know, Moscow offered Germany negotiations about East Prussia in the course of the Two-Plus-Four talks, but Kohl decline with thanks.

The Two-Plus-Four Agreement stipulates that the Oder-Neisse line be the boundary line between Poland and Germany, thus expelling Königsberg.

[Sir Mohamed]

In case you didn't know, Moscow offered Germany negotiations about East Prussia in the course of the Two-Plus-Four talks, but Kohl decline with thanks.

The Two-Plus-Four Agreement stipulates that the Oder-Neisse line be the boundary line between Poland and Germany, thus expelling Königsberg.

Interesting. Was there no move by Germany to take back some territory from Poland? I think it would have been a better deal for Kaliningrad to become part of Poland while the city of Danzig is returned to Germany.

[CumbrianLefty]

Over the long term its future is likely uncertain because the present population is - through a range of different methods* - essentially paid to live there and it is questionable whether this will prove sustainable beyond a certain point, but I do not think that trying to force the issue (in any direction) would be a good idea at present. At all.

But it's maybe worth thinking about that odd place, simply because its population has become used to certain things that people in the rest of Russia have not had access to due to proximity to the comparatively prosperous Baltic economies and an unusually high level of employment with Western firms (see below) and they have suddenly lost them. The place is now shut off again in the way that it was during the Cold War. This may end up having consequences at some point - but domestic ones.

_{*Not just from the Russian state either: German industrial investment, encouraged in order to foster political stability and to make any awkward questions purely hypothetical, has played a big role there as well.}

I have been very curious how recent events are viewed in Kaliningrad; much more curious than I am how they are viewed in Moscow or St. Petersburg, which get reported on a lot more.

There have certainly been a few fair sized anti-war protests there.

[Storr]

No, it should be given its independence at the 4th Baltic state. It will be a nation of (mostly) ethnic Russians who speak Russian, but it will not be a part of Russia. It would be like a Russian Austria, I suppose? Ideally, it would become a place where any Russian can flee to escape the authoritarian Putin regime.

I don't know what the name for the country should or even would be. Neither Kaliningrad or East Prussia work. I'm sure there's some historic name that could be used. The river that flows through the middle of the region and Kaliningrad itself is the Pregola/Pregoyla. Maybe that could work?

[Frodo]

I would be happy enough with Kaliningrad being demilitarized.  Other than that, I am not exactly clamoring for it to be divvied up among neighboring NATO members. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know what the name for the country should or even would be. Neither Kaliningrad or East Prussia work. I'm sure there's some historic name that could be used. The river that flows through the middle of the region and Kaliningrad itself is the Pregola/Pregoyla. Maybe that could work?

The historical name, before the incorporation into various German polities, was just Prussia ('Prusa' in the extinct Old Prussian language). Which is not very helpful as far as your suggestion is concerned, and, anyway, half of that area is in Poland now. I suppose Sambia or Samland (the name for the central peninsula) might do.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Maybe after the Western proxy army in Ukraine finishes beating Russia's ass they can liberate Belarus and then conquer Kaliningrad and return it to NATO hands.