Futures of losing house candidates

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well?  And feel free to post any news about uncalled races in the approriate thread.

[Jake]

Don Sherwood (PA-10) has already announced he is done with politics. I don't expect that to change.

Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (TX-22) is a possible candidate for the seat in 2008, when a Republican should be favored.

Curt Weldon (PA-07) has no chance of returning to Congress. He's almost certainly done, though I wouldn't be surprised if he became involved in a foreign policy think tank.

Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08) could very well run again in 2008. Murphy's margin was small enough that Fitzpatrick could win.

Melissa Hart (PA-04) could also return to office in 2008. She was touted as a possible Senate or Gubernatorial candidate before her defeat. That may still be possible.

[bullmoose88]

Curt Weldon (PA-07) has no chance of returning to Congress. He's almost certainly done, though I wouldn't be surprised if he became involved in a foreign policy think tank.

If he's not in jail.

[MarkWarner08]

Larry Kissell, Mary Jo Kilroy and Dan Seals should and could win 2008. Patsy Madrid, Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell should not run again.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Madrid, Kissell and Kilroy's races have not been called yet. 

[MarkWarner08]

Madrid, Kissell and Kilroy's races have not been called yet. 

Madrid faces an insurmountable deficit. Kissell would have to win "65% of the remainING ballots or 977 votes to win by one vote" according to BlueNC. Kilroy is unlikely to win because of the  problems with the electronic voting machines. Ditto for Christine Jennings who should have beaten the Six Million Dollar Man.

[RBH]

Dan Maffei, Victoria Wulsin, Charlie Stuart, and Nancy Skinner should run in 2008.

Jim Noland, who ran against Ike Skelton in 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006, will probably run against Ike Skelton in 2008. Noland keeps losing by 2 to 1 margins though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For the western NY districts that went narrowly GOP, I think Massa and Maffei would be good candidate for 2008. As for Davis, he didn't seem to campaign.

[bullmoose88]

For the western NY districts that went narrowly GOP, I think Massa and Maffei would be good candidate for 2008. As for Davis, he didn't seem to campaign.

Dunno about Maffei...From what Folks have said here in NY 25...he looked like a stuffed suit who pulled out all the stops and still couldn't win...Walsh seems to have a good handle on the district.

And I'm currently in the more democratic area of the district...there was no snow here on tuesday, the weather was just overcast.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For the western NY districts that went narrowly GOP, I think Massa and Maffei would be good candidate for 2008. As for Davis, he didn't seem to campaign.

Dunno about Maffei...From what Folks have said here in NY 25...he looked like a stuffed suit who pulled out all the stops and still couldn't win...Walsh seems to have a good handle on the district.

And I'm currently in the more democratic area of the district...there was no snow here on tuesday, the weather was just overcast.

I don't know much about Maffei, but a 49-51 loss against someone "safe" who was unopposed 2 years ago doesn't sound too bad to me.

Syracuse?

[RBH]

heck, there has to be some elected Democrat in NY-26

[bullmoose88]

For the western NY districts that went narrowly GOP, I think Massa and Maffei would be good candidate for 2008. As for Davis, he didn't seem to campaign.

Dunno about Maffei...From what Folks have said here in NY 25...he looked like a stuffed suit who pulled out all the stops and still couldn't win...Walsh seems to have a good handle on the district.

And I'm currently in the more democratic area of the district...there was no snow here on tuesday, the weather was just overcast.

I don't know much about Maffei, but a 49-51 loss against someone "safe" who was unopposed 2 years ago doesn't sound too bad to me.

Syracuse?

Yes sir.

If Maffei couldn't beat Walsh in a bad year for Republicans, especially in the NE (when Clinton and Spitzer cleaned up), I don't see when he could beat him.

I will say this, Maffei's campaign wasn't really inspiring and only seemed to turn towards that direction in the last week. Given more time it could have happened.

But the possibility remains we may have reached a minimum on the number of seats for the GOP (under current) lines in Upstate NY...its not really a republican area...more 50-50 or 53-47 republican at best, but that means its gonna be really hard to eliminate every elephant up here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes sir.

If Maffei couldn't beat Walsh in a bad year for Republicans, especially in the NE (when Clinton and Spitzer cleaned up), I don't see when he could beat him.

I will say this, Maffei's campaign wasn't really inspiring and only seemed to turn towards that direction in the last week. Given more time it could have happened.

But the possibility remains we may have reached a minimum on the number of seats for the GOP (under current) lines in Upstate NY...its not really a republican area...more 50-50 or 53-47 republican at best, but that means its gonna be really hard to eliminate every elephant up here.

Losing isn't always that bad. McNerney lost horribly to Pombo 2 years ago in CA-11. As for NY-25, it actually voted for Kerry, so a Presidential year might help the Democrats there.

[TheresNoMoney]

Patsy Madrid should definitely run again in 2008, as well as Larry Kissell and Mary Jo Kilroy.

[bullmoose88]

Yes sir.

If Maffei couldn't beat Walsh in a bad year for Republicans, especially in the NE (when Clinton and Spitzer cleaned up), I don't see when he could beat him.

I will say this, Maffei's campaign wasn't really inspiring and only seemed to turn towards that direction in the last week. Given more time it could have happened.

But the possibility remains we may have reached a minimum on the number of seats for the GOP (under current) lines in Upstate NY...its not really a republican area...more 50-50 or 53-47 republican at best, but that means its gonna be really hard to eliminate every elephant up here.

Losing isn't always that bad. McNerney lost horribly to Pombo 2 years ago in CA-11. As for NY-25, it actually voted for Kerry, so a Presidential year might help the Democrats there.

It will probably go democrat presidentially again...unless a guliani or maybe mccain type run...but they seem to like Jim Walsh (voted against NAFTA etc) for some reason.

I will say this, it surprises me that he does so well here in Ononadoga County...with Syracuse as the big city (snicker)...the rest of the area doesn't look terribly affluent...

[Keystone Phil]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Madrid, Kissell and Kilroy's races have not been called yet. 

Madrid faces an insurmountable deficit. Kissell would have to win "65% of the remainING ballots or 977 votes to win by one vote" according to BlueNC. Kilroy is unlikely to win because of the  problems with the electronic voting machines. Ditto for Christine Jennings who should have beaten the Six Million Dollar Man.

Madrid needs 1,334 more votes, how many more are left to count?  I do not understand why a Kilroy win is unlikly, the race has already gone from 53%-47% to 51%-49%.

[bullmoose88]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

I honestly don't know about Fitz...an article in phillyburbs.com (courier's website) kinda indicated that he was thinking about sticking to private life if he lost. The guy has kids to raise, send to college etc.

Though if he doesn't come back...we're gonna need someone like Jim Greenwood to come and take down Murphy who will have the advantage of incumbency which is usually a big deal here.

If not Jim, my list is small...Tommy Tomlinson? Maybe, Diloramo? eh not enthusiastic...they're gonna need someone who can carry central and upper bucks (who look down on lower bucks) while keeping Murphy's advantage in Lower Bucks to a minimum.

[Nation]

For the western NY districts that went narrowly GOP, I think Massa and Maffei would be good candidate for 2008. As for Davis, he didn't seem to campaign.

I'm not a fan of either  Davis or Reynolds, but Davis basically said the equivalent to a slap in the face of all his campaign workers and helpers -- that it was "a relief" to not have to go to Washington, in addition to the fact that he barely ran a campaign. He didn't seem like he even wanted to win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

I honestly don't know about Fitz...an article in phillyburbs.com (courier's website) kinda indicated that he was thinking about sticking to private life if he lost. The guy has kids to raise, send to college etc.

Though if he doesn't come back...we're gonna need someone like Jim Greenwood to come and take down Murphy who will have the advantage of incumbency which is usually a big deal here.

If not Jim, my list is small...Tommy Tomlinson? Maybe, Diloramo? eh not enthusiastic...they're gonna need someone who can carry central and upper bucks (who look down on lower bucks) while keeping Murphy's advantage in Lower Bucks to a minimum.

Realisticly, do you think Jim Greenwood will enter just 4 years after retiring?  Especially after a year like this.  I think Fritzpatrick will run and lose again, but by a wider margin, but I do not know a ton about the district.

[bullmoose88]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

I honestly don't know about Fitz...an article in phillyburbs.com (courier's website) kinda indicated that he was thinking about sticking to private life if he lost. The guy has kids to raise, send to college etc.

Though if he doesn't come back...we're gonna need someone like Jim Greenwood to come and take down Murphy who will have the advantage of incumbency which is usually a big deal here.

If not Jim, my list is small...Tommy Tomlinson? Maybe, Diloramo? eh not enthusiastic...they're gonna need someone who can carry central and upper bucks (who look down on lower bucks) while keeping Murphy's advantage in Lower Bucks to a minimum.

Realisticly, do you think Jim Greenwood will enter just 4 years after retiring?  Especially after a year like this.  I think Fritzpatrick will run and lose again, but by a wider margin, but I do not know a ton about the district.

Well, I think the way PA 08 is, they're gonna give a new guy a shot to hold his seat...unless national issues are so controlling...like in 06 (Fitz was/is pretty darn popular...Bush cost him.)

I dunno...they would have to coax Greenwood big time.

Though I just thought of another name. Mark Schweiker...another famous R from my township...but he'd need to remind people now who he is...if he even wanted it.

[jimrtex]

Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (TX-22) is a possible candidate for the seat in 2008, when a Republican should be favored.

She was elected to Congress in the special election (with more votes than Ol' Nick had in the general election).

[Jake]

I noticed that. Do you think most voters simply didn't connect that they had the chance to vote for her again?

[Smash255]

mejias who lost to King in NY-3, looks to have a bright future ahead of him.  His late entry obviously hurt him, as well as being outspent by about $1 million.  King will no longer have the huge warchest.  He entered this race with $800,000 from his previous elections, he spent everything, has nothing to holfd over, spent clolse to $2 million.   The district is more Dem in Presidential elections, so that, less of a $$ difference, Mejias having more name recognition, Kibng's weakened position, could all turn things the other direction in 08.  Another possibility is a race for Nassau county Executive in 09.  he has a bright future.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Gutknecht's done. He's a boring, empty suit politician and hardly the type of guy who people will miss, even though they reelected him by big margins over weak underfunded opponents. No comeback for him in 2008. GOP primary should be interesting, I kind of have a hunch State Sen. Julie Rosen is going to be it.