Respect and Compassion
Jr. Member
Posts: 313
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« on: April 04, 2022, 09:34:10 AM » |
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I'm not at 20 posts yet so I can't include the link, but maybe a mod can edit it in later. It's an article from The Hill from March 29, 2022. It starts with
" Poll: Trump leads Biden, Harris in 2024 match-ups
Former President Trump is leading President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up, according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill on Monday."
This pollster overestimated Biden's national performance by a bit, off the top of my head. I may have to look up their last 2020 national poll later.
What we can hope for is that Trump is capped at 47% over Biden *but* that feels a bit like wishcasting to me. There is certainly a large percentage of the electorate who would never vote for Trump, but I don't think anyone can confidently peg what that percentage is. Perhaps Trump actually can manage to get over 50% nationwide, and he doesn't even need to do that in order to win the electoral college. If you shift every state based on the 2020 results a bit in his favor with the same percentage, he would need less than 48% nationwide to win the electoral college. And he could win with around 47% nationwide if the results are distributed a bit more in favor of the battleground states. And...he could win with the same 46.86% nationwide if third party votes were siphoned from Biden's performance.
One might attribute this shift in the polls to Trump being out of the spotlight, but he's been more in the spotlight than any former President, and coverage of him has still been more unfavorable than any other American political figure (e.g. Jan 6 Committee, leaks of what he's been up to in private). I'm not confident that his poll numbers would drop significantly once he starts campaigning again, because they should at least have dropped for him to be somewhat worse off than he was in 2020 in terms of favorability, but despite events like Jan 6 his favorability has gone up.
Anyway, this is a snapshot in time but we cannot afford to underestimate the opposition. I'm certainly not certain that he's going to win in 2024.
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