Non-incumbents guaranteed to be Governor by February 2023

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lt Governor Josh Green of Hawaii (currently up 36 points in the race to succeed *ge) comes to mind.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Maura Healey.

[President Johnson]

I'd say only the three named above are pretty much guaranteed. Other than that, Derek Schmidt and Rebecca Kleefisch have good chances. Not guaranteed though.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd say only the three named above are pretty much guaranteed. Other than that, Derek Schmidt and Rebecca Kleefisch have good chances. Not guaranteed though.

Also, Joe Lombardo.

[Utah Neolib]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sarah Sanders
Maura Healey
Tom Perez
Beto O'Rourke
Tina Kotek

Can we stop it with this Lean R KS there hasn't been one single poll on KS

Sebelius was reelected

[Utah Neolib]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All very good pts but polls are showing that Rs are overperformed with Latino voters and how in the World is Latinos gonna vote R and they voted right next door for Gavin Newsom in the recall, Latinos aren't republican they're on food stamps a 1/3 Rd of them just like Blk people that's 20M out of 50M and many are on section 8 vouchers Latinos aren't republican and SISOLAK and CCM and Newsom aren't bleeding Latino support

.also, it's only April it's not November yet

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

[Utah Neolib]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Are they locks in the primary?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly those picks are partisan picks and not substantiated by state by state polls only Approvals

These pollsters want to make Biden look bad by polling certain states but won't poll MA and MD Gov polls to make Biden look better and it's only April

[beesley]

Once again the forum fails to understand the meaning of 'Safe' or 'Guaranteed'. Kleefisch/Schmidt/Lombardo are not guaranteed to be Governor. Whereas Sanders, Healey, and Green are almost certainly going to be Governor.

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Also, what’s the deal with Herbster? I know he has Trump’s endorsement but his polling is far from insurmountable.

[Utah Neolib]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Also, what’s the deal with Herbster? I know he has Trump’s endorsement but his polling is far from insurmountable.

He seems like a natural successor to Ricketts - and his polling is decent enough.

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Also, what’s the deal with Herbster? I know he has Trump’s endorsement but his polling is far from insurmountable.

He seems like a natural successor to Ricketts - and his polling is decent enough.

Ricketts is backing Pillen.

[Utah Neolib]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Also, what’s the deal with Herbster? I know he has Trump’s endorsement but his polling is far from insurmountable.

He seems like a natural successor to Ricketts - and his polling is decent enough.

Ricketts is backing Pillen.

I’m betting Trump’s endorsement works there.

[Tekken_Guy]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Also, what’s the deal with Herbster? I know he has Trump’s endorsement but his polling is far from insurmountable.

He seems like a natural successor to Ricketts - and his polling is decent enough.

Ricketts is backing Pillen.

I’m betting Trump’s endorsement works there.

Are Kleefisch, Lombardo, Lake, and Craig locks to win their primaries, or are they beatable?

[Utah Neolib]

AR: Sarah Sanders
HI: Josh Green
KS: Derek Schmidt
MA: Maura Healey
NW: Charles Herbster
NV: Joe Lombardo
OR: Tina Kotek
WI: Rebecca Kleefish (my least certain pick)

You don’t think Sisolak or Evers have chances at winning?

Also, what about Dean Heller?

They obviously have chances but in my opinion these are the most likely to flip. Dean Heller completely collapsed in the polls the past few months and Lombardo has a solid Clark County base as well as being liked by rurals and suburban people. Overall he just has a really good winning coalition.

What about Kari Lake or James Craig?

Neither of them are guaranteed in my book as both are worse than average candidates. Craig will probably win, though I don’t think Lake will.

Also, what’s the deal with Herbster? I know he has Trump’s endorsement but his polling is far from insurmountable.

He seems like a natural successor to Ricketts - and his polling is decent enough.

Ricketts is backing Pillen.

I’m betting Trump’s endorsement works there.

Are Kleefisch, Lombardo, Lake, and Craig locks to win their primaries, or are they beatable?

Kleeifsh yes, Lombardo yes, Lake unfortunately yes, Craig probably.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Katie Hobbs
Huckabee Sanders
Abrams
Perez
Healey
Connelly
Kotek
Shapiro

[Figueira]

Again, people are way overestimating the chances of incumbents losing. A couple will inevitably lose, but it's way to early to say which with any certainty.

I can't speak for Green or Sanders, but Healey, I would agree is close to guaranteed. I wouldn't call it 100% though.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Again, people are way overestimating the chances of incumbents losing. A couple will inevitably lose, but it's way to early to say which with any certainty.

I can't speak for Green or Sanders, but Healey, I would agree is close to guaranteed. I wouldn't call it 100% though.

Sanders is basically unopposed in the primary. All three are basically guaranteed (thanks to Hawaii's lack of a runoff Green could lose like 30% off his polling average and still win) thanks to the partisan lean. There are others who would be 100% wins if they win their primary, but the above three are the only ones with a clear field and a non-competitive election.