🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

PS leadership ballot: First day of voting has begun.

Polls are now open in 12 districts across the country, with Lisbon being the biggest district open during today, around 7,200 registered voters. Poll openings vary from district to district, with some opening at noon, others at 3pm, while others will open after 6pm. During today, polling stations will be open until 10 and 11pm.

By midnight, the party is expected to reveal the turnout rate during the day. But, ballots will also be counted, so campaigns will know who's ahead by tonight. There will be no official declaration of today's results, but there could be rumours. During these two days, around 60,000 PS members are registered to vote.

Tomorrow, the remaining districts will open their polls, with Porto and Braga, 11,000 and 7,800 registered voters respectively, being the two biggest at stake. By the late evening tomorrow, around midnight, the new PS leader will be revealed.

[Mike88]

Candidates and other high profile PS members voting:

PM Costa casting his ballot in Lisbon city:
https://twitter.com/24sapo/status/1735749690073694684

Pedro Nuno Santos casting his ballot in São João da Madeira, Aveiro district:
https://twitter.com/tviultimas/status/1735784823304724777

Daniel Adrião waiting in line to cast his vote in Lisbon city:
https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1735757142282641858

José Luís Carneiro will cast his ballot tomorrow in Baião, Porto district.

[Mike88]

No info on turnout, but images from polling stations showed long lines.

Also, the media is now leaking the first returns of the ballot. As of now, with 7 districts reporting, PNS leads 60-40% over Carneiro.

Bragança: 59% PNS; 39% Carneiro
Castelo Branco: 60% PNS; 40% Carneiro
Évora: 64% PNS; 36% Carneiro
Guarda: 60% PND; 39% Carneiro
Leiria: 61% PNS; 38% Carneiro
Viana do Castelo: 66.5% PNS; 33.5% Carneiro
Vila Real: 52% Carneiro; 47% PNS

In Oeste district, Northern Lisbon district, Carneiro was the winner.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Are these results better than expected for PNS?

[Mike88]

Are these results better than expected for PNS?

Well, they are a bit as expected, but, compared to what was expected when he launched his campaign, they are worse. The leaked results from today, seem to show the trend of the last few weeks: Carneiro was able to close the gap and avoid a "coronation" of Pedro Nuno Santos, but far away from actually winning.

But, caution with these results. The districts that voted today amount to just 37% of all PS members registered to vote. Tomorrow, the remaining 63% will be up for grabs.

[Mike88]

Update:

- Turnout during the first day of voting stood at 76%, around 16,000 voters;

- PNS won 10 out of the 12 districts that voted yesterday. The national picture as of this morning:

64.1% Pedro Nuno Santos
34.8% José Luís Carneiro
  1.1% Daniel Adrião

These results are from 282 precincts out of 681. 399 will be open during this Saturday. PNS also leads in terms of delegates to the congress, 284 versus the 107 of Carneiro;

- Polls in the second day of voting are already open, especially in the two major districts of Porto and Braga. The last polls close at 10pm and the results will be announced by around 11pm or midnight;

[Mike88]

José Luís Carneiro has cast his vote in Baião, Porto district:

Carneiro and his wife speaking to reporters after casting their ballots.

To reporters, Carneiro criticized the leaks of the results from the first day of voting, saying they are a form of "political conditioning" and he would not comment on the numbers. He finalized by adding that he hopes that the leadership ballot will be "as democratic as possible".

[crals]

And Pedro Nuno Santos it is. Tbh I think Carneiro would have been a better option for both PS and the country, but it was a very steep hill to climb.

[Mike88]

And Pedro Nuno Santos it is. Tbh I think Carneiro would have been a better option for both PS and the country, but it was a very steep hill to climb.

Nothing surprising, but PNS' victory isn't that impressive, taking into account the history of past PS leadership ballots. Carneiro was able to gain a lot of ground in the last 4 weeks, as when PNS announced his candidacy, a 80-20% or so result was expected. In the end, this is going to be something like 60-40%.

[Mike88]

Carneiro is delivering his concession speech:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1736154537457492184

José Luís Carneiro: “I conveyed to Pedro Nuno my availability to work for the PS and for the country”

He highlighted that his campaign achieved the best result ever for a runner-up candidate in a PS ballot, and that it's now up to Pedro Nuno Santos to ensure unity and plurality in the party, saying he's willing to continue to work for the PS and the country. He also thanked PM Costa for his work as PS leader for almost 10 years.

[Mike88]

PM Costa has also congratulated Pedro Nuno Santos, wishing him "personal and political happiness."

José Luís Carneiro has left the PS national headquarters and will not hear in person PNS' victory speech.

[Mike88]

The lack of transparency and clarity of the PS in their elections is something just... exasperating.

The results just announced by the party:

61.2% Pedro Nuno Santos (24,080 votes)
37.8% José Luís Carneiro (14,868)
  1.0% Daniel Adrião (382)

Pedro Nuno Santos elected 909 delegates, Carneiro 407 and Adrião just 5.

The party says that 40,000 members cast a ballot, but a SIC reporter says it was 43,000.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos victory speech:

Pedro Nuno Santos started by thanking the Socialists that voted and followed his campaign, saying that they showed that the PS is and will remain as the "largest political party in Portugal". He praised the party's founder Mário Soares, which was the most applauded moment of the whole speech. He praised the stability of the PS in terms of leaders, comparing the 9 PS leaders with the 19 PSD leaders since 1974, saying that's proof of the stability a PS government can give to the country. PNS then praised Costa's near 9-year tenure as PM, which was also very applauded, saying that he's pround of what he did, from the GDP growth, the job growth, the pensions increases, and so on, adding that he wants to built a Portugal for everyone. He counts with Costa and Carneiro to help him in the campaign for the snap general elections. The tone of the speech was nervous, confusing and his posture was weird, at best.

[Mike88]

The media is trashing Pedro Nuno Santos' speech, labeling it as "weak" and "too bad to be true".

[Mike88]

Results map by district:


Image link.

[Mike88]

Costa and Pedro Nuno Santos met this morning at the PS headquarters to begin the "transition":

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1736374538747736553

António Costa went to Rato to pass the testimony to Pedro Nuno. Socialists are already meeting at headquarters

António Costa and Pedro Nuno Santos met this morning at the PS National Headquarters in order to kick start the transition in the PS leadership. PNS is expected to take office as party leader next 7 January 2024, the last day of the PS national congress. After an hour and a half long meeting, both men made a few statements to the press: Costa said that he will not be a "shadow" to anyone and pressed that the PS is much more united than the PSD. He added that the party is focused on unity in order to ensure "continuity" after March 10th, and said that PNS has much more experience than the PSD leader, Luís Montenegro; Pedro Nuno Santos said he had a "good talk" with Costa and hopes to use his "intelligence and political sagacity" in the campaign. He says that he's not the candidate the rightwing wanted and that the goal now is to mobilize the country, and make real decisions for country, "Not postpone dreams, moving Portugal forward", he concluded.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Congratulations to Pedro Nuno Santos. I assume there is no logic behind the vote geography (although Carneiro winning Madeira in a landslide is funny, incredible attachment to always choosing the more conservative option). Also, why was Lisbon district split in two for reporting the results? That's bizarre.

[Mike88]

Congratulations to Pedro Nuno Santos. I assume there is no logic behind the vote geography (although Carneiro winning Madeira in a landslide is funny, incredible attachment to always choosing the more conservative option). Also, why was Lisbon district split in two for reporting the results? That's bizarre.

There's no logic behind the vote geography and Madeira is actually the only exception. For example, Carneiro had the support of the Bragança party branch but he lost that district, however, he won the neighboring district of Vila Real, whose local branches sided with PNS. The PS-Madeira actually supported Carneiro, even though this support split a bit the local party.

I have no idea why parties divide Lisbon district between north and south. The PSD also has this split, not sure, however, if CHEGA, IL and BE have it also. PCP is irrelevant because they don't do internal elections. Maybe it's because the northern part of Lisbon district is more rural, and the southern part is massively urbanized, in order to have a better party base organization. But, I'm not sure.

[Mike88]

With the PS leadership election now set and done, time to update the title and add the Azores 4 February snap elections.

A few updates:

- With PNS now already in the campaign trail, the attacks between PS and PSD escalated. Pedro Nuno Santos accuses Montenegro of having no "political experience" and of sounding more and more like CHEGA. Montenegro responded that PNS' experience is just "political registration", accusing him of being incompetent while in Government in several dossiers, TAP, transports, nationalizations, etc;

- Montenegro also had a "feud" with Ventura after the latter one predicted that CHEGA will have more votes than the PSD. Montenegro reacted by saying that Ventura seems to "believe in Santa Claus", a remark that Ventura didn't liked at all;

- With the election of Pedro Nuno Santos as PS leader, talk of a 2.0 version of the 2015 Geringonça deal is on the table. But what would be the conditions for that kind of deal to be reached? PCP is not very willing to repeat the 2015 Geringonça deal, and prefers occasional agreements with the PS. On the other hand, BE is willing to seat on the table with the PS but the conditions, and details, to reach an agreement could be tricky;

- This Tuesday, an unprecedented event happened: 3 former Prime Ministers were called to testify in Court, on the same day, in the trial of former Economy minister Manuel Pinho, charged with corruption. Manuel Pinho is accused by the Prosecutor of being an "undercover agent" of disgraced banker Ricardo Salgado in Sócrates' PS government, by receiving bribes. Durão Barroso, José Sócrates and Pedro Passos Coelho spoke before a judge and didn't corroborate the accusations saying they were unaware of them. Also, a weird situation regarding these testimonies was that former PM Passos Coelho was notified to testify in Court by... a Whatsapp message;

- Passos Coelho who is also the topic of political discussion because of his remarks regarding Costa. Speaking to reporters in front of the Court where he would testify, Passos said that Costa resigned because of his "indecency and bad image", adding that he hopes that the PSD is "ready to return to power", but, that his possible return to the political scene depends on the time. The media says that these strong and harsh statements "embarrass" Montenegro and gives voters a bad picture of the PSD situation and platform for the campaign;

[MRCVzla]

PSD and CDS-PP will run together in both Legislative and European elections, reviving the "Aliança Democrática" brand, seems the most safely way to CDS get back to Parliament with enough MPs rather than struggle around the 1-2%.
https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1737902264923095310

In a joint statement, the PSD and the CDS-PP announced this Thursday the formation of a pre-electoral coalition, the Democratic Alliance, with a view to the "horizon of the current political cycle", covering the 2024 legislative and European elections.

[Mike88]

Yep, this had been rumoured for some weeks now and CDS was basically "pleading" for a coalition with the PSD almost daily. This marks the "official end" of CDS as an independent party and its transformation into the "PEV of the PSD".

[Mike88]

Consulmark2 poll for Sol newspaper and Euronews:

Vote share %: (Scenario poll with PSD/CDS and IL running in coalition and separately)

37.6% PSD/CDS (+5.3)
24.1% PS (-1.9)
12.0% CHEGA (-5.2)
  9.1% BE (+4.7)
  4.9% IL (-1.8 )
  3.3% CDU (+1.2)
  2.8% Livre (+0.5)
  1.1% PAN (-0.3)
  5.0% Others/Invalid (-2.6)

42.0% PSD/CDS/IL (+3.0)
24.3% PS (-1.7)
12.8% CHEGA (-4.4)
  8.5% BE (+4.1)
  3.5% CDU (+1.4)
  3.2% Livre (+0.9)
  0.9% PAN (-0.5)
  4.9% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

27.5% PSD (-2.5)
26.5% PS (+0.5)
15.2% CHEGA (-2.0)
  7.7% BE (+3.3)
  5.8% IL (-0.9)
  2.8% CDU (+0.7)
  2.3% CDS (nc)
  2.3% Livre (nc)
  0.8% PAN (-0.6)
  9.1% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 December 2023. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.50%

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: Deadline to submit lists approaches and, as of now, 8 lists have been submitted.

With just 6 weeks until the Azores snap election, parties have until next Tuesday, 26 December, to submit lists to run for the 4 February election. Because of the weekend and Christmas holiday next Monday, basically all parties delivered to the Courts their lists this Friday. As of now, just 8 lists have been submitted:

- PS, Socialist Party
- PSD/CDS/PPM coalition
- CHEGA
- BE, Left Bloc
- IL, Liberal Initiative
- PAN, People-Animals-Nature
- CDU, Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP/PEV)
- JPP, Together for the People

The big surprise in this election, although it had been rumored for a few months, is the candidacy of Together for the People (JPP), the Madeira based regional party, in the Azorean election. Their main candidate is the dissident CHEGA MP in the current parliament, Carlos Furtado.

We'll see if more parties will submit lists until 4pm of 26 December.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: Deadline to submit lists approaches and, as of now, 8 lists have been submitted.
(...)
We'll see if more parties will submit lists until 4pm of 26 December.

The deadline passed and 10 parties/coalitions will be on the ballot in the Azorean February 4th election:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CH - CHEGA, far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
JPP - Together for the People, center
L - Livre, center-left
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - Coalition "Democratic Alliance", center-right
PS - Socialist Party, center-left

Note: Some parties will not run in all island constituencies.

[Mike88]

Some updates:

- This Wednesday, 27 December, the iconic former PCP MP Odete Santos died at the age of 82:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1740007624462999787

Odete Santos was a very popular MP, whose parliamentary speeches were very irreverent and with a lot a humor, which made her stand out. She was also an actress and an aclaimed declaimer. President Marcelo called her "one of the most charismatic MPs of the Assembly of the Republic" and tributes have come from both left and right. RIP

- A new poll from Intercampus to Correio da Manhã newspaper shows..., basically, no real changes in voting intentions and the prospects for the March election remain uncertain. The poll also shows that 40% of voters still aren't sure about their voting intention:

Vote share %: (after 13.2% of undecideds are excluded)

29.3% PS (+3.8 )
26.0% PSD (+2.4)
13.4% CHEGA (-1.2)
10.1% BE (-0.1)
  7.6% IL (-1.5)
  3.5% PAN (-1.2)
  3.3% Livre (+0.1)
  2.7% CDU (-0.8 )
  1.8% CDS (-0.2)
  2.3% Others/Invalid (-1.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 December 2023. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

- Both Pedro Nuno Santos and Luís Montenegro gave interviews to SIC TV in the last two days. And both had different postures: Montenegro showed a very "humble" posture, almost to an unhealthy degree according to pundits, saying that he knows that voters still don't have a very good impression of him, pressing, again, that deals with CHEGA are off the table; Pedro Nuno Santos gave a much more "energetic" posture saying he will not privatize TAP airlines, but, about a future Geringonga 2.0, Nuno Santos didn't want to elaborate too much, adding that his goal is to achieve the best result for the PS;