🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Jornal Económico on the Madeira elections:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 elections)

50.1% PSD/CDS* (+4.9)
18.6% PS (-17.2)
10.1% JPP (+4.6)
  4.1% CHEGA (+3.7)
  3.3% IL (+2.8 )
  1.9% BE (+0.2)
  1.9% PAN (+0.4)
  1.5% CDU (-0.3)
  8.5% Others/Invalid (+0.9)

Poll released on 12 Aug 2022. Polled 414 voters in Madeira islands.

The Madeira regional election is the next big electoral event in the country, schedule for September/October 2023.

*Also, PSD and CDS have announced that they will contest next year's regional election in a joint coalition.

[Mike88]

Controversy breaks as Finance Minister Fernando Medina hires a former TV director as his advisor for public policies:

If Medina was planning to "revamp" his image, well done, his image is now even more in the crapper.
(P.S.: Pedro Nuno Santos is probably laughing at all of this)

Costa just threw Medina under the bus: PM Costa says that government members are free to hire who they like, and that it will not be him who will give explanations regarding this case.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1558042285409026048

Costa on Sérgio Figueiredo: "Government members are free to hire"

The prime minister declined to comment the hiring of Sérgio Figueiredo to the cabinet of Finance Minister Fernando Medina. “I do not comment on how each member makes up his cabinet. As we know, members of the Government are free to make appointments for their offices, and I do not comment”, said António Costa, on the sidelines of a visit to a daycare center in Amadora.

“It is what has always been in the law, that members of the Government have the right to an office where they hire people they trust, to perform and support them in the exercise of their functions”, he reinforced.

Questioned several times on the subject by the journalists present, the head of the Government maintained his position. “Each one must try to do what he has to do. It's up to me to manage my office. If there are doubts, the competent authorities will deal with them”.
(...)

[Mike88]

Windfall tax: Costa has doubts about taxing extraordinary profits but is open to study it.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1558737960115130368

PS resists pressure and only accepts taxing profits if it is at European level

As companies across the board are presenting record profits, the discussion of a windfall tax is being made also here. Leftwing parties support the idea, while rightwing parties refuse more taxes. Last April, the current economy minister, António Costa Silva, suggested that tax but there was so many criticisms that PM Costa ended that idea. Now, PM Costa continues to have big doubts about the tax, but says the government is "studying it" to see if it justifies. Costa, however, warned that taxes are already very high for businesses and that the Portuguese situation is different, and could only accept it if it's at an European level. Costa is also suffering pressures from even within his party: The party's chairman, Carlos César, asked for the creation of a windfall tax right now.

Pundits argue that Costa's tone shows that he will likely not go ahead with any windfall tax. Many argue that the PM, by saying he's "studying" the issue, is trying to sweep the discussion under the carpet. Economists also add that a windfall tax could create legal issues as there is already a special tax, inherited from the Troika years, for energy companies with high profits, which would create a complicated case of taxes taxing taxes.

[Mike88]

PSD leader Luís Montenegro proposes billion euro social emergency plan in their summer rally in the Algarve:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1558940697943760898

Festa do Pontal: Montenegro anticipates Costa and announces social emergency program: “The orange machine is back”

PSD leader Luís Montenegro was present, this evening, in the party's summer rally in the Algarve city of Quarteira and announced a 1 billion euros social emergency plan to be implemented between September and December. Montenegro announced that in the first day of the Parliament session after the summer holidays, in September, the PSD will propose a series of policies to be debated in the floor:

- A monthly 40 euros food voucher for all pensioners with pensions bellow 1,097 euros;
- A monthly food voucher of also 40 euros for all workers with wages bellow 1,100 euros;
- Income tax cuts for middle class families;
- Monthly 10 euros support for all children with family allowance;
- Creation of financial support for small businesses and social aid associations with high energy bills;

PM Costa has also promissed announce a series of policies, during September, to fight the rising cost of living and energy prices. Montenegro said, in his speech, that he will therefore propose to use the 1.3 billion surplus in public finances, between January and June this year, to fight inflation and rising costs. The rest of Montenegro's speech was quite boring, to say the least, and the rally itself was also marked by the presence of former PM Pedro Passos Coelho.

[Mike88]

Parish in Viana do Castelo set to vote in a referendum in order to split the parish in two next Monday, 15 August:

The referendum is today. Polls opened at 8am and will close at 7pm. Results are expected shortly after that hour. This is the first referendum regarding the separation of parishes.

The ballot given to voters: "Do you agree with the separation of the Unity of Parishes of Barroselas e Carvoeiro?" Yes or No.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1559125382804033539

Update: At midday, only 7% of registered voters cast a ballot.

[Mike88]

Parish in Viana do Castelo set to vote in a referendum in order to split the parish in two next Monday, 15 August:

The referendum is today. Polls opened at 8am and will close at 7pm. Results are expected shortly after that hour. This is the first referendum regarding the separation of parishes.

The ballot given to voters: "Do you agree with the separation of the Unity of Parishes of Barroselas e Carvoeiro?" Yes or No.

Yes side wins by a landslide but just 22% of voters cast a ballot:

88.9% Yes (924 votes)
11.1% No (115)

 0.9% Blank/Invalid (9)

22.4% Turnout (1,048)

Because the referendum failed to reach a 50% quorum, the decision to split the parish will be decided by the Parish Assembly, which will with almost certainty approve the split.

[Mike88]

Controversy breaks as Finance Minister Fernando Medina hires a former TV director as his advisor for public policies:

If Medina was planning to "revamp" his image, well done, his image is now even more in the crapper.
(P.S.: Pedro Nuno Santos is probably laughing at all of this)

Costa just threw Medina under the bus: PM Costa says that government members are free to hire who they like, and that it will not be him who will give explanations regarding this case.

And he's out: Sérgio Figueiredo "resigns" from his new post at the Finance Ministry, and trashes everybody.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1559679820476420096

Sérgio Figueiredo refuses Medina's invitation to be Finance's consultant

After a week of controversy and with also a very mad mood within the PS, Sérgio Figueiredo, has "resigned", or rather, refused Medina's invitation to be an advisor to the Finance minister. In an article for Jornal de Negócios, Figueiredo trashes the "aggressiveness", the "affront" and "insults" towards him by "shameless moralists". He says he has had enough and "bows to the character murders" and adds that, as of now, he's just "the ex-future advisor to the Minister of Finance".

Well... that's one way to come out of this whole controversy with dignity...

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

36.7% PS (-2.2)
27.6% PSD (+2.7)
  9.5% CHEGA (+1.2)
  8.5% IL (-0.1)
  4.4% BE (-0.9)
  4.2% CDU (+0.3)
  2.5% CDS (+0.7)
  1.2% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Livre (-0.6)
  4.2% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Government approval rating:

42% Bad/Very bad (+8)
37% Average (-10)
19% Good/Very good (+1)
  2% Undecided (+1)

Prime Minister António Costa's approval rating:

51% Disapprove (+5)
41% Approve (-6)
  8% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 28 July and 10 August 2022. Polled 828 voters. MoE of 3.48%.

[Mike88]

More internal infighting in CHEGA: Party's deputy leader resigns after Ventura sacked him from the party's study office.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1561725082019446784

The resignation request had already been submitted in July, but a change in the studies office precipitated the departure of the name that was once a candidate for vice-president of Parliament.

Internal infighting is back in CHEGA. This time, the party's deputy leader and MP from Leiria district, Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro, resigned from his deputy post after Ventura sacked him from the leadership of the party's study office. He had already asked, last July, to leave the deputy post and after Ventura decided to sack him, Mithá Ribeiro "slammed the door with a bang" posting on social media the email he sent to Ventura tendering his resignation. According to the report, Ventura wants to centralize more and more power, within the party, in himself and this is creating internal clashes between Ventura and people who were very close to him. This resignation is just another one in a long list of resignations in CHEGA. Also, could this create a split in the party's caucus with the party losing one seat? We'll see.

[Mike88]

This resignation is just another one in a long list of resignations in CHEGA. Also, could this create a split in the party's caucus with the party losing one seat? We'll see.

Ventura keeps confidence in Mithá Ribeiro as a MP and will remain in Parliament:

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, announced, in a press conference that he will keep political confidence in Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro, CHEGA's Leiria MP who resigned as the party's deputy leader after Ventura sacked him from another party's post, and confirmed that he will remain as a MP. Ventura added that Mithá Ribeiro thought he would be thrown out from the party, but the leader assured him not but refused to give more details on their phone talk. This talk was only by phone as Mithá Ribeiro refused to meet in person with Ventura, because, according to the CHEGA MP, the conditions weren't right.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

CHEGA spend one month without higher-up sackings/resignations/defections challenge (IMPOSSIBLE). But I repeat myself...

[Mike88]

CHEGA spend one month without higher-up sackings/resignations/defections challenge (IMPOSSIBLE). But I repeat myself...

Ventura wanting to centralize even more power in him is just mind boggling. The party is already 100% him, like a cult, and thinking he could have even more power could be a recipe for disaster. Mithá Ribeiro was sacked because he shared a criticism to CHEGA's opposition strategy on social media, and, in CHEGA, members are basically forbidden to criticize anything, otherwise, they know the outcome. But, yet, the party holds almost 10% share in the polls. None of these tensions seem to be hitting the party, so far.

[Mike88]

Other updates:

Government opens regulated market for gas consumers as prices could soar almost 150% by October:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1563031298020904961

Energy: Government opens the door to escape from the liberalized gas market.

Facing announcements from energy companies like EDP and Galp that gas prices could soar 150% by October, in EDP's case, the government announced that they will allow consumers to return to the regulated market where prices are half of those in the liberalized gas market. The law forbid consumers who left the regulatory market to return to it, but facing this massive price rise, the government decided to change the law. 1.5 million families could benefit from this decision. However, the decision was met by the media and the opposition as "too little, too late". Parties accuse the government of not doing enough to support families during the current inflation crisis and demand more measures like VAT cuts, which is supported by all opposition parties left to right, and in the case of PCP and BE, a windfall tax for energy companies. President Marcelo is also unsure about the government's strategy saying he "wants to understand the logic of intervention" of the government, citting examples from Spain, Italy and France where governments were much more ambitious in their policies.

The government also proposed the rise of the price of water in municipalities most affected by lack of water, but this is facing backlash:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1562546096312057857

Government recommends increasing water tariffs in municipalities most affected by drought. The tariff increase should target consumers of more than 15 cubic meters of water in the 43 municipalities with less water, although Duarte Cordeiro "would recommend the measure to any municipality in the country".

The massive drought across the country is water shortages mainly in the interior parts of the country, and because of this situation, the government is advising local governments in 43 municipalities most affected by the drought to increase the price of water. The government wants to raise awareness about misuse of water and also wants to penalize it. The environment minister, Duarte Cordeiro, adds that any municipality is free to increase the price of water and he recommends it. However, this price increase is being rejected by local governments. Local governments, from left to right, say it doesn't make any sense to increase water prices in rural and interior municipalities where there's low population and wealth is not that big, while seaside municipalities, where the majority of the population lives, don't suffer any increases.

The last few days were also quite bad for the government because of several gaffes made by government officials:

Last week, the secretary of internal affairs, Patrícia Gaspar, gave an interview to SIC Notícias regarding the wildfires crisis and explaining the government's actions. During the interview, and after being pressed by the reporter on the extent of land burned, Ms Gaspar said that the government had an algorithm that showed that with the current drought and type of forest, 30% more land should have burned. The press reacted by mocking the explanation accusing the government of trying to praise themselves, saying this shows a complete lack of ideas and strategy. The opposition also trashed Ms Gaspar, demanding an apology and wanting also to understand how this algorithm works. Ms Gaspar, then gave a new interview to RTP where she apologized for her tone and that she wasn't clear.

Another gaffe was made by the Minister of the Presidency, and the de facto Deputy PM, Mariana Vieira da Silva. Also regarding the wildfires, the minister, after meeting with local government officials of the Serra da Estrela region, she said that Serra da Estrela Natural Park will become "better than it was" prior to the wildfire that destroyed 30% of the park. The press and pundits also reacted with surprise and also mocked, and criticized, this gaffe.

The other gaffe, was made by minister Marta Temido, Health, regarding the current NHS emergency room and staff shortage crisis:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1562879290626125825

Problems on the NHS? Blame it on decisions in the 80s, says Marta Temido. Minister says that the lack of doctors is not the result of a choice “from today, yesterday or last year”.

In the government's press conference after the weekly cabinet meeting, Health minister Marta Temido was pressed, again, with the ongoing NHS crisis with lack of staff and emergency rooms closed, and the minister surprised reporters by blaming decisions made in the 1980s that led to the current NHS problems. She said that 40 years ago, medicine courses were much more limited, but that the government is working very hard to prevent more problems. The opposition is trashing the minister's explanation, accusing her of disrespecting the people and of running away from her own responsibilities.

Regarding CHEGA, there are new details of the ongoing internal feud, and they are "juicy":

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1562937632686239745

Aggression may be at the origin of Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro's resignation

The CHEGA current "soap opera" regarding the resignation of deputy leader Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro had new chapters today. Previously it was reported that Mr Mithá Ribeiro had a fallout with Ventura after Ventura sacked him from an internal party post, but according to Diário de Notícias, this was not the reason. In reality, Mr Mithá Ribeiro and another CHEGA MP, Bruno Nunes, got into a fight before a party caucus meeting and Ventura didn't defend Mithá Ribeiro or take any stance at all. This infuriated Mithá Ribeiro and was, according to the newspaper, the last straw. And despite Ventura saying he has full confidence in Mithá Ribeiro and that he will remain as a MP, that's not 100% certain at this point. It turns out that Mithá Ribeiro will not give up his seat, but is negotiating with Ventura the terms he could remain in CHEGA. He's expected to announce a decision tomorrow, Saturday, in Leiria.

[Mike88]

Ups... he did it again: Figueira da Foz mayor, Santana Lopes, storms out from a TV debate after a photo of him with a red bandana in the 90's is shown.

https://twitter.com/politicanatuga/status/1563543654324895744

The debate was regarding the ongoing controversy surrounding the Finnish PM's videos, and Santana Lopes, which had a past of his own regarding "parties", didn't liked that CNN showed a photo of him in a club in the 90's, accusing CNN of lying to him, and stormed out of the debate.

Santana went viral in 2007, when he also stormed out of an interview, regarding the PSD's internal situation, after his interview was interrupted to broadcast José Mourinho's arrival at Lisbon airport.

[Mike88]

It turns out that Mithá Ribeiro will not give up his seat, but is negotiating with Ventura the terms he could remain in CHEGA. He's expected to announce a decision tomorrow, Saturday, in Leiria.

Everything is still up in the air: Mithá Ribeiro gave a press conference in which he announced he will remain in CHEGA, for now, but doesn't rule out leaving the caucus.

In the press conference, Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro, CHEGA MP for Leiria, wants conditions in order to remain in the party's caucus and asked Ventura to start negotiations with him before the end of the summer recess, 15 September. He added that there no conditions to work in the current environment inside the caucus and doesn't rule out leaving the party and become an Independent MP. All is dependent on the final result of the talks between him and Ventura.

[Mike88]

Major development: Health minister Marta Temido resigns.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1564409349526667265

RTP and Público newspaper are reporting that Health minister Marta Temido has just tender her resignation and that PM Costa has accepted.

This resignation comes after a long summer of NHS crisis and a story, that broke this evening, that a pregnant woman died after Lisbon's biggest hospital didn't had a vacancy for her and she died from a heart attack when she was being transferred to another hospital. This is the first ministerial resignation in Costa's five month long 3rd cabinet.

More updates when available.

[VPH]

I find it funny that CHEGA activists seem to just now discover that it's a personal vehicle for André Ventura and his ambitions (which apparently didn't have a home in the PSD) not an open and democratic big tent.

[Mike88]

I find it funny that CHEGA activists seem to just now discover that it's a personal vehicle for André Ventura and his ambitions (which apparently didn't have a home in the PSD) not an open and democratic big tent.

The issue with CHEGA is that, unlike other far-right parties across Europe, it's a party with no real ideology or structure and 100% dependent on the image of Ventura. Everybody knows that Ventura is like "a sheep in wolf's clothing" as he acts as a radical conservative nationalist, but no one changes positions on policies like gay marriage, abortion, immigration, etc, from day to night, and that's what Ventura did. Now, when anyone tries to propose something or give some kind of content or something, they clash with Ventura as he feels threatened. CHEGA is right now a "ticking time bomb", it could blow up anytime.

Major development: Health minister Marta Temido resigns.

This news is dominating headlines, and the minister had also an accident as she arrived to her office this morning, as she fell in the sidewalk as she left her car:

https://twitter.com/BilbiaOfissial/status/1564560963159953408

According to Expresso newspaper, Temido's substitution could drag on a bit, as PM Costa wants her to oversee the creation of a CEO of the NHS, and other proposed government reforms, to be presented in cabinet during the month of September.

[Mike88]

PM Costa just spoke to the media and said that this time he could not changed Temido's mind:

Speaking to reports in front of the PM's official residence, Costa said that he didn't have time yet to think about a new pick for Health minister and acknowledged that this time he couldn't change Marta Temido's mind about resigning, hinting this was not the first time Temido asked to leave the government. Costa also admitted that the story about the death of a pregnant woman in a Lisbon hospital, last night, might have been the "last straw" for the minister.

He added that he was surprised by the timing of the resignation but wants Temido to hold on a bit longer until the approval of some NHS reforms during the next few weeks, and only after that he will announce the name of her successor.

The media/pundits are claiming that Costa's explanations are just bizarre.

[Mike88]

With the Marta Temido resignation still dominating headlines, CHEGA's ongoing soap opera had another chapter: Ventura and Mithá Ribeiro make emends and appear in a video ensuring that the party is united.

It turns out that Mithá Ribeiro will not give up his seat, but is negotiating with Ventura the terms he could remain in CHEGA. He's expected to announce a decision tomorrow, Saturday, in Leiria.

Everything is still up in the air: Mithá Ribeiro gave a press conference in which he announced he will remain in CHEGA, for now, but doesn't rule out leaving the caucus.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1564966612347895808

Mithá remains a deputy for Chega and says that Ventura is a “great leader”. Together, in video, they talk about a party “more united than ever”

After Saturday's press conference where CHEGA MP Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro accused Ventura of damaging the party with his style and strategy and of considering leaving the party's caucus, just 72 hours were enough for all that to go away. Ventura and Mithá Ribeiro appeared, today, in a video in which both ensure that the party is "united as never before" and with Mithá Ribeiro praising Ventura as "great leader". Ventura has also called a motion of confidence for the middle of September to test his leadership within the party.

The next chapter of the CHEGA soap opera continues just after the break.

[Mike88]

Costa set to announce relief package of around 2 billion euros next Monday, but advises calm as "strength comes from calm":

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1565375642035789827

Government: Costa sends measures to face inflation to Monday because “strength comes from calm”

The media is today reporting, according to sources within the government, that Costa is preparing to announce the awaited inflation relief package next Monday, worth 2 billion euros in measures and social supports. Costa promissed, last July, that he would announce measures to ease the rising cost of living in September, while he's accused of delaying social support measures and indeed Portugal has been lagging behind other EU countries in terms of social supports. President Marcelo has warned that the supports need to help people in need and pointed to examples across Europe from Spain to Germany. PM Costa was pressed by reports, in Maputo Mozambique, about what are the policies to be announced, but the PM didn't give hints and said he only responded to the questions because he knows people are anxious but that "strength comes from calm".

There are, of course, doubts of what policies the government could implement, but economists are suggesting a few: VAT cuts, or other taxes, of certain products like gas and electricity or give financial supports to families; In terms of food, the government could be planning an increase of the food aid subsidy and regarding rents, well, it's complicated. Rents are set to increase 5.4% next year but according to the media, the government is very undecided on what to do or if it should stop the big rise in rents.

Only on Monday will we know the answers.

[Mike88]

I can't stop laughing...

https://twitter.com/Politica24PT/status/1565440923613511685

[Mike88]

PSD leader Luís Montenegro proposes billion euro social emergency plan in their summer rally in the Algarve:

PSD makes changes in their plan and now also proposes VAT cuts on gas, fuel and electricity to 6%:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1565682243561037827

PSD proposes to lower energy VAT to 6%

Three days before the government announces their big financial package to fight inflation, the PSD gave details about their own plan and added a few new policies. The PSD plan, now worth around 1,5 billion euros, proposes food aid support for pensioners and workers with wages until 1,100 euros and income tax cuts for middle class families, already announced by the PSD leader, Luís Montenegro, two weeks ago. The party is now also proposing VAT cuts on gas, fuel and electricity to 6%. In this point, the party accuses Costa of misleading the country about VAT cuts as it is now revealed that the EU has allowed countries to cut VAT on energy since April. Diário de Notícias newspaper revealed this today, although Costa has been saying that he could not cut VAT without the EU Commission permission.

At the same time, newspapers continue to reveal some parts of the government's plan: Negócios newspaper says that a special bonus for pensioners will be announced, while Público newspaper prints that Costa has definitely dropped any idea of a windfall tax for companies with big profits.

[Mike88]

NHS crisis: Government taskforce proposes the closure of several maternity units and to concentrate services.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1566055915425370113

Lack of experts. NHS considers closing maternity hospitals

Since the ongoing crisis in NHS maternity emergency rooms started, the Health ministry formed a taskforce to analyse the situation and propose solutions. The final draft is almost finished, and the taskforce is proposing the closure of several maternity units and to concentrate services. The head of the taskforce, Dr. Diogo Ayres de Campos, says that there is no other solution than to close down services as there is a big lack of specialists and staff in several hospitals and that the only solution, then, is to concentrate services because otherwise the problems will continue and get worse. They also propose the creation of a 3 tier hospital system. The final draft of the proposal will be presented on 14 September, and by then, it's expected to be announced the name of Marta Temido's successor. He or she then will have to decide if they agree with the taskforce conclusion or dismiss them.

[Mike88]

Montenegro accuses Costa of "killing off the next Health minister" and of being the best friend of the private sector:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1566417697285570561

Montenegro says Costa “is already killing” the next Minister of Health

In the closure of the PSD's summer university, party leader Luís Montenegro accused Costa of already "killing" Marta Temido's successor in the Health minister and also accused the PM of a late response to the current inflation crisis. Mr Montenegro trashed Costa's health policies labeling Costa as the "best friend of the private sector" for the big rise in private insurances and the low investments in the NHS. He went on to accuse the leftwing and the PS of managing worse the NHS than PSD governments, even with the Troika in the country. Montenegro went on to also accuse Costa of being too slow in responding to the rising cost of living, citting Costa when the PM said that inflation was temporary and that EU permission was needed to reduce taxes. He finalized by predicting a "propaganda showoff" from the government tomorrow, but that in the end Costa didn't want to help businesses and families earlier.

Also, today, it's expected the speech of PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa in the Avante festival. This year, the festival was surrounded in controversy because of the Communist's pro-Russia position and for several reactions in favour and against this year's festival.