🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

The new Euthanasia bill will, once again, be delayed because of a complaint from CHEGA:

Parliament rejected CHEGA's complaint and sent the bill to President Marcelo. Marcelo, almost immediately, sent the bill to the Constitutional Court:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1610700267762204683

“Certainty and legal security are essential in the central domain of rights, freedoms and guarantees”, justifies the President of the Republic.

After Parliament overwhelmingly rejected CHEGA's complaint regarding the definitive draft of the new Euthanasia legalization bill, it was sent to President Marcelo. A few hours later, President Marcelo announced he was sending the bill to the Constitutional Court. Talking to reporters, the President said that the bill need to guarantee its legal security and if it responds to the worries, also expressed by the Court, the last time when another Euthanasia bill was rejected. The President added that it's crucial that the law is clear and rights and freedoms are not violated.

In reaction, rightwing parties and associations applauded the President's decision, pressing that the new bill continues to be unconstitutional. Leftwing parties respect the President's decision but argue that the new bill is clear and that it doesn't violate the Constitution.

[Mike88]

Another day, another controversy in government: Newly appointed Agriculture secretary, Carla Alves, has bank accounts seized by the police.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1610928726144946176

New Secretary of State for Agriculture has accounts seized

According to Correio da Manhã newspaper, newly appointed Agriculture secretary, Carla Alves, has a series of bank accounts seized by the police because of a corruption investigation surrounding her husband, Américo Pereira, a former PS mayor from Vinhais, Bragança district. According to the police, she and her husband lied in their tax returns as they were earning and amounting, in bank accounts, some times almost 3 times more than what they had actually declared. The DA office wants to bring to trial her husband and the couples bank accounts have been seized since March 2022, with the police wanting them to give back 700,000 to the State. She was also accused of accumulating public and private offices at the same time, which is illegal.

This government... ugh... seriously. What's the point anymore?

[crals]

Smart of Pedro Nuno Santos to jump from this sinking ship. It's clear that Costa is over and we are getting an early election sooner or later.

[Farmlands]

Smart of Pedro Nuno Santos to jump from this sinking ship. It's clear that Costa is over and we are getting an early election sooner or later.

It certainly has a bit of a Boris Johnson feel to it. I'm still a proponent that constant elections are a worse alternative than a simpler PM and cabinet change though, I don't think it"s good for countries to go down a path to becoming like Israel.

[Mike88]

Smart of Pedro Nuno Santos to jump from this sinking ship. It's clear that Costa is over and we are getting an early election sooner or later.

It certainly has a bit of a Boris Johnson feel to it. I'm still a proponent that constant elections are a worse alternative than a simpler PM and cabinet change though, I don't think it"s good for countries to go down a path to becoming like Israel.

Yeah, this seems to be sinking faster than the Titanic. But, IMO, elections are still off the table, at least during 2023. The PSD is not a strong alternative, yet, and Montenegro has been quite irrelevant and weak. So, without a strong alternative, Marcelo will never accept new elections. Plus, a PM change is also literally impossible as Marcelo was quite clear about that: People didn't vote for a party (PS), they voted for a person (Costa). So, any change in leadership will force, with almost certainty, snap elections.

Unfortunately, Portugal is right now facing this scenario: A trainwreck and incompetent Government with an irrelevant and useless Opposition.

[Mike88]

Another day, another controversy in government: Newly appointed Agriculture secretary, Carla Alves, has bank accounts seized by the police.

Adding to this, and after a "ridiculous", to the say the least, press conference by Carla Alves husband, the Secretary of Agriculture will remain in silence and will not talk or issue any statement to reporters. During the morning, the Agriculture ministry told the media that Ms Alves would give some kind of statement, but reporters on the ministry headquarters found out that no staff of the ministry knew what was going on.

The Agriculture minister, however, sent out a statement saying that Ms Alves is not involved in any corruption investigation and that her position in government is not in doubt.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Pedro Nuno Santos quitting everything is... a big deal and fairly shocking. However I agree with all the local posters here that it's probably a good strategic decision (and surely he'll be relieved not having to deal with Costa apparently setting him up to fail anymore). Being a major minister was hardly helping his chances to win in the future.

Plus, a PM change is also literally impossible as Marcelo was quite clear about that: People didn't vote for a party (PS), they voted for a person (Costa). So, any change in leadership will force, with almost certainty, snap elections.

Can the PS even knife Costa and does it want to? That sounds implausible to me, at least until the EU elections are round the corner.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos quitting everything is... a big deal and fairly shocking. However I agree with all the local posters here that it's probably a good strategic decision (and surely he'll be relieved not having to deal with Costa apparently setting him up to fail anymore). Being a major minister was hardly helping his chances to win in the future.

Plus, a PM change is also literally impossible as Marcelo was quite clear about that: People didn't vote for a party (PS), they voted for a person (Costa). So, any change in leadership will force, with almost certainty, snap elections.

Can the PS even knife Costa and does it want to? That sounds implausible to me, at least until the EU elections are round the corner.

PNS's fate was settled back in July, with the whole airport fiasco thing. But, back then, he wanted desperately to remain in cabinet, while Costa was ready to fire him. Now, with the government in free fall, he used this "TAPgate" scandal to jump of the ship, as remaining in cabinet now would probably hurt his future prospects. However, I'm not sure if this state of things in the government and in the PS remains, what kind of future prospect PNS could have as PS leader, or anyone else.

The PS will never knife Costa specially, like you pointed out, with EU elections just around the corner. Plus, Costa still has a lot of power and dominates the party. After that, who knows. I always had difficulty in buying Costa's words that he didn't want an EU post in 2024 anymore. We'll see.

[Mike88]

As expected, IL's motion of censorship was rejected:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1611079372001234951

The Assembly of the Republic this afternoon rejected the motion of censure submitted by the Liberal Initiative.

Results:

126 Against (119 PS, 6 PCP, 1 Livre)
  19 In Favour (11 CHEGA, 8 IL)
  79 Abstention (73 PSD, 5 BE, 1 PAN)
    6 Absent (4 PSD, 1 PS, 1 CHEGA)

As expected, the Liberal's motion of censorship was rejected by the votes of the PS, alongside PCP and Livre. PSD, BE and PAN decided to abstain while only CHEGA and IL voted in favour. During the debate, IL accused the PS majority government of only creating instability and that the country needs a new government, and now. They added that the economic data is weak and accused the government of being incompetent. On his part, Costa accused IL of being a "source of instability" and asked what should a government be evaluated, by its merits or composition? The PSD accused the PS of only creating a "mess", with the PS responding that this motion is useless as there is "no alternative". Costa also accused the rightwing of not even agreeing in a simple motion, let alone govern. BE asked the PM about the ongoing scandal of the Secretary of Agriculture, asking if the Secretary should resign. Costa responded with irony by saying "Why would I fire someone, just because her husband is accused?". After being pressured by Catarina Martins, Costa said that he has a habit of "trusting people". PCP asked the government about actual policies to help people, while CHEGA asked Costa what kind of image is he wanting to give of Portugal. During the debate, Costa also announced an "evaluation circuit" between the PM and the President to avoid possible embarrassing revelations from newly appointed governments members.

At the same time the debate was happening, President Marcelo gave a press conference in which he, in short, "opened the door" to the resignation of the new Secretary of Agriculture and "torpedoed" Costa's idea of an "evaluation circuit".

[Conservatopia]

Smart of Pedro Nuno Santos to jump from this sinking ship. It's clear that Costa is over and we are getting an early election sooner or later.

It certainly has a bit of a Boris Johnson feel to it. I'm still a proponent that constant elections are a worse alternative than a simpler PM and cabinet change though, I don't think it"s good for countries to go down a path to becoming like Israel.

Don't want to Britpost but this has a Britain circa Nov '21 - Apr '22 feel to it. During that time things were a mess but Boris (like Costa) was fairly secure.

It all turned to poo very quickly aftet that though. Things could go south all at once for Costa in the coming months if he is perceived as the root of the malaise.

[Mike88]

Another day, another controversy in government: Newly appointed Agriculture secretary, Carla Alves, has bank accounts seized by the police.

Adding to this, and after a "ridiculous", to the say the least, press conference by Carla Alves husband, the Secretary of Agriculture will remain in silence and will not talk or issue any statement to reporters. During the morning, the Agriculture ministry told the media that Ms Alves would give some kind of statement, but reporters on the ministry headquarters found out that no staff of the ministry knew what was going on.
(...)

At the same time the debate was happening, President Marcelo gave a press conference in which he, in short, "opened the door" to the resignation of the new Secretary of Agriculture(...)

And... she's out: Newly appointed Secretary of Agriculture Carla Alves has resigned.

She is the 12th government member to resign in 10 months. She lasted only 26 hours in government.

[Mike88]

Smart of Pedro Nuno Santos to jump from this sinking ship. It's clear that Costa is over and we are getting an early election sooner or later.

It certainly has a bit of a Boris Johnson feel to it. I'm still a proponent that constant elections are a worse alternative than a simpler PM and cabinet change though, I don't think it"s good for countries to go down a path to becoming like Israel.

Don't want to Britpost but this has a Britain circa Nov '21 - Apr '22 feel to it. During that time things were a mess but Boris (like Costa) was fairly secure.

It all turned to poo very quickly aftet that though. Things could go south all at once for Costa in the coming months if he is perceived as the root of the malaise.

Yeah, that's a good point. So far Costa has been able to remain "secure", but the constant mistakes and arrogance tics don't bode well for him. And the cases are going fast, in 24 hours a government member has come and gone, and put the Agriculture minister also on the edge. And, on a side note, the number of euros in each case is going up: Miguel Alves got screwed because of 300,000 euros; Alexandra Reis because of 500,000 euros and Carla Alves for 700,000 euros.

[Mike88]

Agriculture minister now under fire as Público newspaper says she knew everything about Carla Alves case. Her office, however, denies everything:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1611259765367136256

Government: Secretary of State informed Minister of Agriculture about her husband's lawsuit

Público newspaper reports, this Friday morning, that the Agriculture minister, Maria do Céu Antunes, knew everything about Carla Alves and her husband's accounts seizures. The newspaper writes that Ms Alves informed Ms Antunes of her issues with the police and the justice system, but asked if she informed PM Costa of this, she refused to answer. At the same time, Ms Antunes office just sent out a press release saying she knew nothing about Ms Alves case. To SIC News, her office said that the case is totally "clarified" and that now she just wants to get back to work.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a bit like the Tories here though, isn't it.

PS still have a majority so aren't likely to be forced into an election any time soon.

[Mike88]

After "TAPgate" and "Alvesgate", another one: Newly appointed Environment secretary, Hugo Pires, sold his architecture firm to a company that imports toxic waste to Portugal.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1611294924825104386

Politics - Secretary of State Hugo Pires involved in possible conflict of interest

With the TAPgate still making news and the resignation, after just 26 hours in the post, of the Secretary for Agriculture, a new controversy/conflict of interest hits the government. Sol weekly newspaper reports this Friday that the newly appointed Environment and Energy secretary, Hugo Pires, sold his architecture firm to a company that imports waste, some of them toxic, to Portugal. This toxic waste company has several waste dumps across Portugal, one of them in Valongo, Porto district, that is creating a lot of anger in the local population due to the pollution and the smell. Mr Pires firm was sold to two sisters, in which one of them is a manager in this same waste company.

In reaction, the Environment ministry rejects any conflict of interest, saying he sold his firm before being appointed Secretary and that he has no connection what so ever with the company that bought his firm.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Its a bit like the Tories here though, isn't it.

PS still have a majority so aren't likely to be forced into an election any time soon.

A minister that lasts 26 hours in her post makes Grant Shapps' time at the Home Office look like a long tenure, even.

[Mike88]

Its a bit like the Tories here though, isn't it.

PS still have a majority so aren't likely to be forced into an election any time soon.

A minister that lasts 26 hours in her post makes Grant Shapps' time at the Home Office look like a long tenure, even.

Just a small correction: It's not a minister, but a secretary. In Portugal, the secretary reports to the minister, and the minister reports to the PM. Normally, secretaries are picked by the ministers but they need to have the approval of the PM, otherwise, no deal. PMs could also pick secretaries for other ministers. Secretaries usually do the hard work, while the ministers get the praise, but lately, specially with the last few governments, secretaries have gain a lot of power within government.

Also, the President has the power to dismiss a PM and call a general election, even if the PM is against it. It's called "the atomic bomb" and it was only used once: in 2004, when President Sampaio "fired" PM Santana Lopes and called a general election. So, the President has that power, but, for the moment, it's unlikely, basically impossible, Marcelo will use it as the last election was just a year ago and, like I posted above, there's no strong alternative to the PS, yet.

President Marcelo, however, is already warning the government that his patience has limits and that he doesn't rule out other actions after the end of 2023.

[Mike88]

A few updates:

- PM Costa is "sustaining" the Agriculture minister and said that the case, of Carla Alves, is now "resolved". He also added that the government is "cohesive". At the same, some PS members are openly demanding the resignation of the Agriculture minister. Pundits and commentators also are pressing for her resignation;

- President Marcelo refused any idea of dissolution of Parliament, for now, saying he supports stability in institutions. However, he added that he's "giving the government time" to solve its problems and the country too, and regarding the "Alvesgate", he said that the Agriculture minister should evaluate her political conditions;

[Mike88]

Fury within the PS grows with the scandals "haunting" the government:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1611755792029327360

Annoyance in the PS with the a succession of cases and resignations

The PS caucus is furious with the ongoing scandals that are "haunting" Costa's majority government. In the last PS caucus meeting, last Thursday, tensions were "through the roof", according to Público newspaper. According to the newspaper, several PS MPs fiercely criticised the government for its "nonchalant way" of nominating government members. Adding to these criticisms, during the meeting several insults and "screaming matches" erupted between MPs and members of the PS leadership. Party MPs are also furious by the damage these scandals are doing to the party's image.

[Mike88]

PCP leader Paulo Raimundo "open" to form a coalition government with the PS in the future, and praises Pedro Nuno Santos:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1612351737972813824

PCP challenges PS to "patriotic and left-wing alternative"

In an interview to Diário de Notícias newspaper, PCP leader Paulo Raimundo admits his open to the idea of forming a coalition government with the PS in the future, questioning if the PS is open to this scenario in the future. He praised the "Geringonça" experience, saying it was more stable than the current PS majority government but also acknowledges the failures of it as the PS had complete controll on the policy strategy. He also praised Pedro Nuno Santos as someone "frontal and frank" and someone he can talk to and discuss things, even if they disagree. Raimundo was also "vague" regarding a PCP-BE electoral front, with the reporter highlighting that some PCP committee members warned Raimundo to "not invent", warning that were downplayed by Paulo Raimundo. Regarding their controversial position regarding the Russia invasion of Ukraine, Raimundo acknowledged that this is a "war" but was quite elusive in his answers.

[Mike88]

Voices grow in the PSD criticizing Montenegro for its weak Opposition strategy:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1612477940696223745

Montenegro pressured to start showing results

Montenegro's strategy as PSD and Opposition leader is starting to upset sectors within the PSD due to the lack of results and lack of strength in strategy. With the ongoing crisis in Government, several PSD members, off the record, are demanding that Montenegro start "showing results", meaning a more vocal party in Opposition and presenting alternatives to the PS. They also demand that the PSD start growing in the polls and surpass the PS, adding that the PSD is stuck in the 29-30% and that it's "incomprehensible" that with a rapid deterioration of the PS and the Government, the PSD isn't benefiting with it. Some also accuse Montenegro of just wanting to please internal PSD factions and of arriving always late to propose policies, like in the case of Euthanasia and the Constitutional Review. They point that 2023 has to be a "turning point" for the party and demand a "clear win" in the 2024 EU elections.

[crals]

It's funny how Montenegro attempted to oust Rio for being too tame against the PS and turned out to be even tamer. He's invisible and has no charisma, while PSD has no clear strategy or message for the country and is still divided between true right-wingers and PS-lite. Unless they get their act together we are going to continue to see the growth of the far-right and libertarians and an eventual right-of-center majority will be absolute chaos.

It's hard to have faith in the political future when both government options are such a mess...

[Mike88]

It's funny how Montenegro attempted to oust Rio for being too tame against the PS and turned out to be even tamer. He's invisible and has no charisma, while PSD has no clear strategy or message for the country and is still divided between true right-wingers and PS-lite. Unless they get their act together we are going to continue to see the growth of the far-right and libertarians and an eventual right-of-center majority will be absolute chaos.

It's hard to have faith in the political future when both government options are such a mess...

100% agree. Rio may have been "soft" in Opposition, but at least everyone knew what he wanted and defended. Montenegro is just... ugh... I don't know, invisible, irrelevant, whatever. I still think his only chance of even dreaming in becoming PM is if Costa runs away to the EU next year and the PS enters in a full civil war. Other than that, he has no chance at all. A future PSD-IL coalition is almost inevitable in the future, IMO, the only problem is if it doesn't have a majority and is dependent on CHEGA.

Anyway, a few stories that are dominating the headlines:

- PS mayor of Espinho, Aveiro district, arrested by the police because of corruption charges:

The mayor of Espinho, Aveiro district and part of the Porto metro area, Miguel Reis (PS), was arrested   this morning by the police because of corruption charges. The police accuses him of active corruption, abuse of power, influence peddling and prevarication. A city hall employee has also been arrested. The base of these arrests seems to be the licensing of housing projects, in which a few local businessmen have also been arrested. Miguel Reis is mayor of Espinho since 2021, after winning back the city from the PSD by a narrow 40-38% margin.

- Former Tourism Secretary Rita Marques hired by a company she gave benefits while in office:

Former Tourism Secretary Rita Marques is involved in a controversy because of her new job. She was hired as manager of the World of Wine (WoW) tourism company, a Porto Wine theme company based in Vila Nova de Gaia, but an issue surged as she was the Government official who approved the company's requirements to began business and also approved tax benefits. The law says that no former public official can work in companies related to their previous public post during 3 years after leaving office, so, Ms Marques is being accused of clearly violating the law, as she left the Government in early December 2022. This case is upsetting many people within the PS, Ms Marques is a registered PS member, and many are "moving away" from her and also saying she violated the law and should be punished.

[Mike88]

- PS mayor of Espinho, Aveiro district, arrested by the police because of corruption charges:
(...)

The police and the DA office have announced that they will ask for the removal of parliamentary immunity of the deputy PSD caucus leader, Joaquim Pinto Moreira, as they also suspect he committed corruption and abuse of power crimes while he was mayor of Espinho,, between 2009 and 2021, regarding the same investigation that led to the arrest of the city's incumbent PS mayor.

Update: The PS is blaming the previous PSD governance in the city for all of these investigations and detentions, while the former PSD mayor is accusing the PS of "diverting attentions" from them and that only a cellphone and a computer were seized by the police from him. He adds that from what he's been informed, the investigation is about matters occurred during 2022.

So, in a nutshell, this is just like the meme of the two Spider-Man pointing to each other.

[VPH]

I read this interesting (older) history of CDS-PP this weekend: http://analisesocial.ics.ul.pt/documentos/1223396163T3dDP4zc0Vt79YR2.pdf
and it got me thinking. CDS-PP historically seems to have had three major groups, sometimes with a good bit of overlap. None of them are recoverable today.

-Actual centrists, some of whom flirted with PS at times. This group vanished long ago and is unrecoverable due to PSD's relative moderation.
-Market liberals like Lucas Pires (he did also have curious harder right links) who ended up being co-opted by Cavaco Silva and PSD's neoliberal turn. This group is now either on the right of PSD or supporting IL. CDS-PP isn't going to win them back.
-National populists like Manuel Monteiro. This group probably left CDS-PP to support CHEGA and Ventura is a more exciting option for them than Melo and CDS-PP.

Even with PSD's pathetic opposition performance, CDS-PP is polling literally at zero. I'm just wondering how long it is before they die off as a party. It's hard to imagine them finding support anywhere.