🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

PS upset and uncomfortable with Costa's tone in the recent Visão magazine interview:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1604935987745923081

Tired and "needing a vacation"? "Uncomfortable" socialists with António Costa's tone

From his pose in the magazine cover, to the tone and substance of the interview, several PS members and MPs are upset, uncomfortable and disappointed with António Costa. If the rightwing opposition accused Costa of being full of himself and arrogant, the surprise was that many PS members are saying the exact same thing. Off the record, many party members are worried with Costa's tone and style fearing this will hurt even more the government and the party in public opinion. Many fear the PM is tired, fed up and closed in his own "bubble". More vocal, within the PS are Ana Gomes, Sérgio Sousa Pinto and Alexandra Leitão. Ana Gomes even mocked Costa labeling him as the "Marquis of Pimba", which means corny and vulgar. And, Costa's former Economy minister and close friend, Pedro Siza Vieira, accused Costa of hubris and felt embarrassed while reading the interview. The party also fears Costa is following the same footsteps of Sócrates and Cavaco Silva's majorities, which became very unpopular at a certain point because of the "absolute power tics" given by these governments.

[Mike88]

Controversial "windfall tax" approved with the votes of PS and other leftwing parties. PSD abstained:

The "windfall tax", which had several back and forwards, U-turns, and so on, was approved this afternoon in Parliament. It was approved with the votes of PS, BE, PAN and Livre. CHEGA and IL voted against while PSD and PCP opted to abstain. The results were the following:

118 Approve (PS, BE, PAN, Livre)
  19 Disapprove (CHEGA, IL)
  81 Abstention (PSD, PCP)
  12 Absent (9 PS, 2 PSD, 1 CHEGA)

Both left and rightwing parties, in Opposition, criticized the proposed tax: The left accused the government of "shooting dry gunpowder" with this proposal, while the right accused the government of being a "vampire" for wanting to "suck the profits" of businesses. The low revenue expected, 50-100 million euros per year, was also criticized, plus the vague rules of how this extra revenue will be used. The new tax will tax by 33% companies that had profits 20% above the average of the last 4 years. It will be imposed on energy and food distribution companies. The government, on their part, said that companies owe a solidarity effort to the country and they need to contribute, pressing that the tax is just temporary.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper regarding Euthanasia:

Q1: Overall, do you support the idea of Euthanasia, in which medically assisted death is permitted in cases of an incurable illness?

72.5% Yes
19.0% No
  8.5% Undecided

Q2: The PSD proposed a referendum on Euthanasia. Do you agree with the idea of a referendum on the issue?

55.5% Yes
34.4% No
10.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 12 and 14 December 2022. Polled 663 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %:

37% PS (nc)
29% PSD (+1)
  9% CHEGA (-2)
  7% BE (+3)
  5% CDU (+1)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (-1)
  0% CDS (nc)
  0% Livre (nc)
  5% Others (nc)
  3% Blank/Invalid (-3)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 10)

7.0 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (nc)
5.4 António Costa (+0.1)
4.5 Luís Montenegro (+0.1)
4.4 Catarina Martins (+0.5)
3.9 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
3.8 Inês Sousa Real (+0.5)
3.7 Rui Tavares (+0.1)
3.6 Paulo Raimundo (new)
3.0 André Ventura (nc)

Government's approval:

52% Bad/Very bad (+3)
41% Good/Very good (-1)
  6% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 3 and 15 December 2022. Polled 809 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

And another one:

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

35.9% PS (+0.8 )
30.4% PSD (nc)
  9.1% CHEGA (+0.9)
  5.2% IL (-0.9)
  4.3% CDU (-0.8 )
  3.4% BE (-0.4)
  2.2% Livre (+0.2)
  0.7% CDS (-0.6)
  0.6% PAN (-0.6)
  8.2% Others/Invalid (+1.4)

Government approval ratings:

41% Bad/Very bad (+9)
40% Average (-7)
17% Good/Very good (-2)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Prime Minister António Costa's approval rating:

54% Disapprove (+7)
41% Approve (-3)
  5% Undecided (-4)

President Marcelo's approval rating:

63% Approve (-1)
32% Disapprove (+1)
  5% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 9 and 15 December 2022. Polled 828 voters. MoE of 3.48%.

[Mike88]

The new Euthanasia bill will, once again, be delayed because of a complaint from CHEGA:

After Parliament approved the final and definitive text of the law and was ready to sent it to President Marcelo, CHEGA announced it would present a complaint against the final text of the bill, thus delaying the whole process again. CHEGA says that 3 important changes were added in the final text and next week there could be a debate regarding this complaint. This means that President Marcelo will only receive the bill in the first days of 2023.

Parties who voted in favour of Euthanasia are accusing CHEGA of "parliamentary terrorism", for using dilatory procedures in order to derail the whole process.

[Mike88]

NHS crisis: Government taskforce proposes the closure of several maternity units and to concentrate services.

NHS CEO admits that several maternity units could close already in the beginning of 2023:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1606199352434647040

The executive director of the NHS announced that there will be a concentration of services in general emergencies, due to the lack of human resources.

Fernando Araújo, NHS CEO, said in an interview to RTP1 that several maternity units in hospitals could be closed down in the beginning of 2023. Mr. Araújo is concentrating services during this holiday season and a series of services in hospitals will be suspended and concentrated in others, this because of the lack of staff and doctors in the NHS. He also said that, depending on the results of this concentration of services, decisions regarding the closure of services will be taken in early 2023, which include, like it is written in the title, the closure of several maternity units. Leftwing parties, BE and PCP, are already trashing this announcement, with BE saying that the PS government is planning the "begging of the end of the NHS", while PCP says that the goal should not be closing down services but expanding and improving them.

The closure of several maternity units was proposed, during the summer, by a government taskforce but it was received with criticisms by local governments.

[Mike88]

The controversy that is haunting the Government's Christmas:

Incumbent Treasury secretary Alexandra Reis was given half a million euros in compensations for resigning from a TAP airlines post and then going to another State company job in mid 2022:

The story broke on Christmas eve in Correio da Manhã newspaper: the incumbent Treasury secretary, Alexandra Reis, only one month in office, was given 500,000 euros in compensations for her resignation from a top post in TAP airlines. Ms Reis had conflicts with the current CEO of TAP airlines and left TAP by her own feet, but still received thousands of euros in reparations from TAP, which is bankrupt and with an ongoing bailout. Ms Reis was then nominated as chairwoman of NAV, the state airspace control company, and last November was appointed by PM Costa as Treasury secretary.

Although nothing illegal seems to be on the table, for now at least, the scandal is more about the big sum of money given to Ms Reis from a company in financial ruin, that received a bailout of billions from taxpayers money. Parties, left to right, are shocked by the amount of money given to Ms Reis, especially taking into account TAP's current situation. President Marcelo also commented this case saying it would have been "nice" if Ms Reis had abdicated of her half a million compensation, adding that for many Portuguese this situation will create "a lot of impression".

The government hasn't officially reacted to this story, but Finance minister, Fernando Medina, Ms Reis current "boss", and Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos, Ms Reis former "boss", have demanded explanations from TAP airlines and evidences that this compensation is legal. We'll see the next episodes of this story.

[Mike88]

The controversy that is haunting the Government's Christmas:

Incumbent Treasury secretary Alexandra Reis was given half a million euros in compensations for resigning from a TAP airlines post and then going to another State company job in mid 2022:

A few updates on this story:

- The Treasury secretary, Alexandra Reis, sent a press release to Lusa Agency saying she will not abdicate the 500,000 euros, that this was a fair value and that if it wasn't she would not accept it, and that it was TAP airlines who ended her contract;

- Of course, this contradicts the reasons TAP airlines gave to market regulators about Ms Reis exit from the company, as TAP said that Reis resigned and wanted to "pursue other career paths". So, someone is not telling the truth;

- In the middle of this, President Marcelo is already questioning Ms Reis continuity in the government, adding that Medina should have full awareness of the capacities of his treasury secretary;

[Mike88]

The controversy that is haunting the Government's Christmas:

Incumbent Treasury secretary Alexandra Reis was given half a million euros in compensations for resigning from a TAP airlines post and then going to another State company job in mid 2022:

A few updates on this story:
(...)

And another one bites the dust: Treasury Secretary Alexandra Reis is fired from the government.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1607885016477868037

Alexandra Reis leaves the Government.

After a few days of controversy surrounding a "WTF" compensation from TAP airlines and the deals behind it, Alexandra Reis was fired by Finance minister Fernando Medina from government. According to a press release from the minister, he said he took this decision in order to preserve the "political authority" of the ministry in a "particular sensitive moment for millions of Portuguese." This decision was made after PM Costa said he was going to talk with both Medina and Pedro Nuno Santos and decide the next steps to take.

Ms Reis lasted 25 days in government.

[Mike88]

The resignation of Treasury Secretary Alexandra Reis, the 8th dismissal in Costa's 3rd government in 8 months, is still dominating the headlines. A summary of the latest info:

- The media is reporting that Ms Reis first asked 1,5 million euros in compensations from TAP airlines, but the final sum was lowered to 500,000 euros after lawyers intervened. One of the law firms involved in this deal between Ms Reis and TAP was the one owned by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's brother, Pedro Rebelo de Sousa;

- It is also revealed that Ms Reis used, in her swearing in ceremony on 2 December, shoes worth 645 euros from French designer Christian Louboutin;

- Both Pedro Nuno Santos and Fernando Medina are being attacked by the media and pundits for their "loud" silence in this matter. Several pundits are accusing both men of knowing what really happened between Ms Reis and TAP and of hidding that info from PM Costa. Plus, several commentators add that the ministers request of more info from TAP regarding this case was just "ridiculous";

- Pundits and commentators are also surprised that the government has learn nothing from the recent "mini crises" of the last few months, saying that nominees for ministers and/or secretaries continue to not be vetted, which create, almost monthly, crises in the government;

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And another one:

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

35.9% PS (+0.8 )
30.4% PSD (nc)
  9.1% CHEGA (+0.9)
  5.2% IL (-0.9)
  4.3% CDU (-0.8 )
  3.4% BE (-0.4)
  2.2% Livre (+0.2)
  0.7% CDS (-0.6)
  0.6% PAN (-0.6)
  8.2% Others/Invalid (+1.4)

Government approval ratings:

41% Bad/Very bad (+9)
40% Average (-7)
17% Good/Very good (-2)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Prime Minister António Costa's approval rating:

54% Disapprove (+7)
41% Approve (-3)
  5% Undecided (-4)

President Marcelo's approval rating:

63% Approve (-1)
32% Disapprove (+1)
  5% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 9 and 15 December 2022. Polled 828 voters. MoE of 3.48%.

Well, that does not look good for PS. At all.

[Mike88]

Well, that does not look good for PS. At all.

The only thing that is saving the PS, so far at least, is the total irrelevant opposition of the PSD. Other than that, the PS and the government are just in total meltdown going from crisis to crisis, controversy to controversy that is eroding their popularity and authority. Even in the inflation crisis measures, the contrast between Portugal and Spain, for example, is like between water and oil. Of course, Portugal is in a much more fragile state than Spain, because of the amount of debt and the frail welfare state, and the PS wants to pursue a strategy of fiscal consolidation in order to avoid the mistakes of fiscal mismanagement from the past Guterres/Sócrates ages. But, in the end, if you ignore the rest of things, the economy, wages, public services, NHS, infrastructures, etc, fiscal consolidation could become useless.

[Mike88]

And another one goes, and a big one: Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos resigns.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1608256621892730880

Government: Pedro Nuno Santos does not resist the new controversy and leaves the Government

After the resignation of the Treasury Secretary yesterday, today was Pedro Nuno Santos turn, Infrastructure minister, to tender his resignation to PM Costa, which was accepted by the Prime Minister. Pressure over Pedro Nuno Santos escalated during the day as evidence was piling up that he, or his office, may had misled both the PM and the Finance minister regarding Alexandra Reis 500,000 euros compensation from TAP airlines. A report, from Negócios newspaper, says that indeed only the Infrastructure ministy was informed of the negotiations between TAP and Ms Reis. Pedro Nuno Santos office didn't inform anyone else.

This is now the 9th resignation of Costa's 3rd cabinet in less than 8 months and the second resignation in 24 hours. Both secretaries of Pedro Nuno Santos ministry are also expected to resign, adding to 11 resignations in less than 8 months.

More updates when available.

[Mike88]

Parties are reacting to the major "shake up" in government:

- PSD leader, Luís Montenegro, said that the PS has betrayed the confidence of the Portuguese, adding that the government only creates instability, tricks and mishmash;

- CHEGA is asking President Marcelo to ponder if institutions are working properly, hintting to the possibility of a dissolution of Parliament;

- IL will present a motion of censorship against the government, arguing that there's a climate of "incompetence and irresponsibility" that cannot continue;

- PAN warns that doubts regarding the government's approach to TAP remain, and that the government should take responsibility;

No reaction yet from BE, PCP and Livre. From the government, some ministers have came out saying that the cabinet is united and "cohesive" and thanked PNS for his service to the country.

From the PS, there are few reactions: Ana Gomes hopes that PNS exit from cabinet will "invigorate" the PS, hintting that she's pushing Nuno Santos to fight for the PS leadership. On the other hand, several PS MPs and members are worried that Fernando Medina may be the next domino to fall.

[Mike88]

(...)
No reaction yet from BE, PCP and Livre.
(...)

Further reactions:

- PCP is demanding the reversion of TAP's privatization plan, adding that it's this plan that is creating this crisis and the layoff of several workers from TAP airlines;

- BE wants more explanations from Costa and Medina, pressing that PNS resignation doesn't resolve the issue. BE also accuses the government of only giving instability to the country;

- Livre says that Nuno Santos resignation is "hurtful" for the country and that this happened because the State hasn't learned how to manage public companies in the people's interest;

[Mike88]

More updates on the ongoing " TAPgate crisis" in government:

- Because of President Marcelo's trip to attend Lula da Silva's swearing in ceremony in Brasilia, the new cabinet members could only be known by next Tuesday;

- At the same time, pundits and commentators say that Costa could, and should, take this opportunity to promote a big reshuffle in government. Some sources, within the government, point that Costa is thinking about this but it's unclear the range of it. Possible names to succeed PNS are his predecessor in the post, current MEP Pedro Marques, and PS caucus leader Eurico Brilhante Dias;

- President Marcelo is rejecting any idea of snap general elections, saying the country cannot have elections every year and that the only hope we have is for the government to govern better. He added that elections would not give a stable solution and said he respects Pedro Nuno Santos decision, pressing that "no one is forced to stay in government";

- Within the PS, the mood is bad. Many in the party are praising Nuno Santos exit from the government as "dignified and exemplary". Nuno Santos will now return to his seat in Parliament, from Aveiro district, but in the party everybody knows that he has his eyes set on the party's leadership. Many are saying that the fight for the succession of Costa has already started, and some are even attacking, off the record of course, Finance minister Fernando Medina for his actions and positions against Pedro Nuno Santos;

[CumbrianLefty]

At the moment, it does look rather like those who said after the last election "the PS should celebrate getting their majority, as its all downhill from now on" were correct.

[Mike88]

At the moment, it does look rather like those who said after the last election "the PS should celebrate getting their majority, as its all downhill from now on" were correct.

I never expected this to rotten so fast. Sometimes this looks like a lame copy of the Tory party. Anyway, I'm curious to see the reshuffle some PS members are promising Costa will do. There is a big list of ministers that should be "booted out". We'll see.

[Mike88]

IL presents their motion of censorship and are pressing the PSD to support it:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1608725191475224576

"Irreformable Executive". The Liberal Initiative's censure motion is in Parliament

The Liberals have delivered to Parliament their motion of censorship text. In the motion, IL says that the government is "irreformable" after 11 resignations, 9 secretaries of state and 2 ministers, in less than 9 months. The party then argues that Costa is politically disoriented and without authority even within his own party, and add that never in democracy we've have seen a government in this state and that this is just a confirmation of the rapid "tendency of degradation of institutions". Next Tuesday, the motion will be discussed and a date for its vote will be schedule.

CHEGA has already announced that it will vote in favour of the motion, but the pressure is now on the PSD. The Social Democrats are distancing themselves from the motion saying that it should be the government to propose a motion of confidence in order to regain "authority and legitimacy". IL, however, says that any party who doesn't support the motion is just being "complicit" with the PS. A decision from the PSD will be announced during the next week.

The PSD has been having a very low profile stance during this whole crisis, which some pundits have been criticizing. PSD leader, Luís Montenegro, was in holiday in Mexico when the "wave" of resignation in cabinet started and was forced to return earlier to Portugal. President Marcelo also argued that there isn't a "strong alternative", something that was accepted by the PSD. The party's secretary-general, Hugo Soares, said that he agrees with the President, saying that the PSD isn't ready for elections yet, but added that the PSD is preparing itself and that the country now sees a "united PSD" in one side and "divide PS" at the other side.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TVI/CNN Portugal on the ongoing government crisis:

Q1: Is the government in a position to remain in office?

46% Yes
46% No
  8% Undecided

Q2: How should the President of the Republic proceed?

49% Keep the current government in place
39% Dissolve Parliament and call elections
12% Undecided

Q3: Was Pedro Nuno Santos right to resign?

69% Yes
15% No
16% Undecided

Q4: Should Fernando Medina also resign?

62% Yes
25% No
13% Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 and 30 December 2022. Polled 503 voters. MoE of 4.37%

[Mike88]

Reshuffle or Promotion? Costa picks Energy Secretary João Galamba as new Infrastructure minister and former Housing secretary, Marina Gonçalves, as the new Housing minister:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1609965047815479300

João Galamba and Marina Gonçalves will be the new ministers.

The PS, or at least some sources within the party, was promissing that Costa could or would be planning a wider Government reshuffle. But, in the end, that didn't happen. It was more a promotion actually. PM Costa picked João Galamba, incumbent Energy secretary and a very "controversial" personality, as the new Infrastructure minister and Marina Gonçalves, secretary of housing under Pedro Nuno Santos, as minister of the newly former Housing ministry. The government thus gained a new ministry, 18 now in total.

Shortly after this announcement, Costa held a press conference in which he pointed that in 7 years in power he faced several difficult and challenging times, but that always he prioritize the "stability in policies". He went on to say that 2023 will be a very "demanding" year because of a possible recession and the rising cost of living, pressing that government spending and investment will be pivotal. Costa said that both Mr Galamba and Ms Gonçalves are ready to on the task in cabinet, and pointed to the creation of a new Housing ministry in order to highlight the housing problem in Portugal. He added that he believes he's up to the responsibility the country gave him in the January 2022 elections. There were no words of thank you or gratitude to Pedro Nuno Santos during the whole press conference. Costa also refused any idea of Medina resigning from Cabinet. The names of the new secretaries of state, namely Treasury, will only be announced in the next few days.

The media and pundits are labeling this "reshuffle" as a big disappointment and that Costa has no appeal to attract outside people to government. They also point to the weak CV of the new housing minister, taking into account the housing problem in Portugal, and if Galamba's pick was more a way to "calm down" tensions within the PS because of the departure of Pedro Nuno Santos, as Galamba is from the wing of the party close to PNS.

[Mike88]

Parties reactions to the new ministers:

- PSD leader Luís Montenegro accused Costa of going to the "reserve bank" by promoting party apparatchiks and that the government is closed to civil society. He also demanded Fernando Medina's resignation accusing the minister of being "death weight". Montenegro, however, added that the country doesn't deserve a political crisis right now but warned that either the Government "changes its life", or the country will "demand" a change of Government;

- CHEGA leader André Ventura called Galamba's nomination an "affront" to the Portuguese people because of the cases he's involved, some under investigation, and his connections to José Sócrates. He added, like Montenegro said, that Costa only picks ministers from the PS machine, labeling it "jobs for the boys";

- IL accuses Costa of picking Galamba and Gonçalves as ministers due to "fear" of Pedro Nuno Santos, as it almost looks that it was PNS himself choosing the ministers. The Liberals also demand the resignation of Medina, saying that as long as he remains in cabinet, the government will always be more frail;

- A PCP spokesperson accused Costa of living outside reality, adding that the party's worry is that Costa will not change course in terms of policies;

- BE accuses Costa of contradictions in his speech, saying they don't believe in Costa regarding housing, accusing him of just "awarding" portfolios to PS party members in government;

- PAN applauded Galamba's departure as Energy secretary labeling "good news for the Environment", accusing Galamba of being in the pocket of lithium exploration lobbies. Regarding his new post in Infrastructure, Inês Sousa Real accuses Costa of "more of the same" and that the PM has no "substitutes in the bank";

- Livre leader Rui Tavares says that Costa's majority government is the weakest of all Costa' cabinets, as they are creating more instability than stability, but adding that even though the government's housing policy has been a failure, it's a positive news that there will be a ministry for housing;

Regarding the Liberal's motion of censorship, the party is pressuring even more the PSD to vote in favour. The Social Democrats will announce tomorrow their vote strategy. Livre, however, accuses IL of just wanting "publicity" and of not being serious.

[Mike88]

Motion of Censorship discussed and voted next Thursday. Current party standings:

Against (PS, PCP)
In favour (CHEGA, IL)
Abstention (PSD, BE)
Undecided (PAN, Livre)

The biggest doubt regarding this vote was the PSD position. Even though the Liberals (IL) were pressuring the PSD to vote in favour and for not being "complicit" with the PS, adding to this that a majority of PSD MPs wanted to vote in favour, PSD leader Luís Montenegro decided that the party would abstain. Talking to reporters after a PSD caucus meeting, Montenegro said that this was not the time for the government to fall, adding that this doesn't mean the PSD approves what the government is doing and pressing that the people want "the government to govern well" and not elections. He also said that IL is only proposing this motion because of their current internal situation and that when, or if, the time comes, the PSD will present their own motion of censorship against the government. He finalized by saying that the PS cannot run away from the responsibility of governing the country just 11 months after a general election.

[Mike88]

More on the ongoing government crisis: Pedro Nuno Santos also resigns from the PS leadership team.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1610588359520587777

Pedro Nuno Santos leaves the National Secretariat of the PS

After his resignation from cabinet, Pedro Nuno Santos has also tender his resignation from the Socialist Party National Secretariat, a body that advises the party leader. This means that PNS is now out of government and out of all political decisions regarding the party. He has also asked for a 30 day suspension from his seat in Parliament. The media is calling this decision a "big surprise" and another crack in the PS stability and unity. PM Costa is not commentating this decision from PNS.

This news is sidelining the announcement of the new 6 secretaries of state that will be sworn in this afternoon, alongside the two new ministers, João Galamba and Marina Gonçalves:

- Treasury Secretary: Pedro Rodrigues, current AICEP Portugal Global manager;
- Energy and Climate Secretary: Ana Cláudia Gouveia, current PM advisor;
- Environment Secretary: Hugo Pires, PS MP;
- Infrastructure Secretary: Frederico Francisco, former advisor to Pedro Nuno Santos;
- Housing Secretary: Maria Rodrigues, Aveiro University teacher;
- Agriculture Secretary: Carla Alves, Regional Head for Agriculture for the North region;

The only surprise is the change in Agriculture as the current secretary, Rui Martinho, resigned due to Health reasons.