PPIC poll of CA has biden at 32-63 approval in orange and SD county

[Matty]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

People often forget that while an amount of Biden disapprovers still won't vote GOP, they also probably won't turn out for Democrats either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

Lol you do realize KBJ gets appointed to the Crt Biden is gonna get a huge bump on EDay right now the polls are meaningless wasn't Newsom was supposed to lose the Recall due to lack of Latino support

Why do users do this Doom and it's only April

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL. Lets over analyze a crosstab of 202 people. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

Lol you do realize KBJ gets appointed to the Crt Biden is gonna get a huge bump on EDay right now the polls are meaningless wasn't Newsom was supposed to lose the Recall due to lack of Latino support

Why do users do this Doom and it's only April

I'm actually saying there's a lot of possibilities. My wording implicitly said "Ds can potentially do very well here in November" (among other things), because I did not rule out the possibility.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They will the polls are underestimating Blk and Latino support once kBJ gets appointed which minorities will see Biden if not in his Approvaks will get a bump in the votes with Latino and BLK voters, right now Pollsters are only polling anger among voters with Gas prices but everyone don't drive it's driving up airline tickets but metro areas minorities uses public transportation more than anyone

[wbrocks67]

LOL. Lets over analyze a crosstab of 202 people. 

MTE.

[Politician]

Doubt his approval is this bad, but I certainly can see Republicans winning all the competitive SoCal districts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doubt his approval is this bad, but I certainly can see Republicans winning all the competitive SoCal districts.

No they won't

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

The small size of the Democratic majority makes a Republican Congress almost guaranteed. The question in Southern California is whether they can make that majority safe in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Color me skeptical.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

The small size of the Democratic majority makes a Republican Congress almost guaranteed. The question in Southern California is whether they can make that majority safe in 2024.

Personal opinion here: It's foolish to speak with such certainty, and redistricting changes the ballgame a bit.
The state of Biden's approvals after Labor Day and GCB polling after that is when I'll start to consider being comfortable speaking in certainties.

[Cyrusman]

As someone who lives in Orange County (Costa Mesa) and goes to San Diego county
( escondido) often since my parents live there I can tell you he is really not liked here. I’m not sure if it’s 2-1 in terms of that bad disapproval to approval but nevertheless Biden is not popular in these counties. I’ve already had a few friends who are moderate independent 2020 Biden voters tell me as long as the GOP 2024 nominee isn’t Trump or Ted Cruz (lol) that they’d vote Republican

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I actually could plausibly see a path for the Republican nominee to flip Orange County back in an election where they win the popular vote.  If a Republican can simultaneously stabilize with wealthy suburbanites and continue to make inroads with Hispanic and Asian voters, I think they'd have a good chance to carry Orange County.

In such an election, California is probably only about D+20 instead of D+30, allowing Republicans to win the popular vote, but also diminishing the EC advantage.