Given the close result, was the 2020 environment really that bad?

[WPADEM]

A common line you hear regarding the 2020 election is that it was the worst political environment in decades for an incumbent political party. Yet as we all know, Trump and the GOP only narrowly lost and actually.

So was the environment really as bad as it appeared at the time, given the result? What did the Democrats do to nearly blow the 2020 in this supposedly horrible political environment? And let's not resort to anything about polarization.

[Mr. Smith]

A common line you hear regarding the 2020 election is that it was the worst political environment in decades for an incumbent political party. Yet as we all know, Trump and the GOP only narrowly lost and actually.

So was the environment really as bad as it appeared at the time, given the result? What did the Democrats do to nearly blow the 2020 in this supposedly horrible political environment? And let's not resort to anything about polarization.

It was, but Biden failed to actually campaign too seriously.

Trump largely ended up in the same place Hillary did, and Biden pretty much ended up being able to win by doing nothing...just like Trump in 2016. We really can't be sure what difference moving election day forward or back one week would've done.


A serious campaign with an actual direction would've easily flipped NC and Florida and moved the complete Midwest by as much as MN moved.

[TML]

In retrospect, Democrats' decision to reduce in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic did hurt them in many places. For example, a prominent Democratic political strategist from Florida pointed out that Republican gains in South Florida in 2020 were partially the result of Democrats reducing in-person campaigning and their failure to adequately respond to misinformation about their party and their candidates (he mentioned that Obama's success in FL was partly because he went into various communities there and directly confronted misinformation about himself with those voters). I do think that Democrats would probably have won by a bigger margin (and possibly won more seats in Congress) had they done a little more in-person campaigning (albeit still trying to maintain safety precautions whenever possible).

[dw93]

It was, but it didn't become bad until June or July of 2020. For 6-8 months prior to that point, I honestly thought Trump was gonna win.

[Skill and Chance]

It was, but it didn't become bad until June or July of 2020. For 6-8 months prior to that point, I honestly thought Trump was gonna win.

This.  It was more of a last minute swing away from a very pro-incumbent environment. 

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It was closer than the national environment would suggest because the recession was Covid-induced (and as we know now, only lasted two months) and anyone blaming Trump for it was never going to vote for him anyway.

[Pres Mike]

It was closer than the national environment would suggest because the recession was Covid-induced (and as we know now, only lasted two months) and anyone blaming Trump for it was never going to vote for him anyway.

Yeah this was always a weird talking point.

"Trump had 15% unemployment! The economy is horrible! Entire industries are going bankrupt!"

Weren't Democrats the ones most vocal about folks staying home? True or not, the narrative was Trump wanted people shopping and back to work. Kids in school.

That hurt Democrats with Hispanics in Nevada and Texas. And the losses in VA and NJ in 2021.

Plus it was a "COVID" recession. No one blamed Trump for record unemployment. Nothing he did cause that. Anyone who blamed him wasn't going to vote for him at all.

Nor did most Americans think it was a real "Recession". It wasn't like in 2007 when the balance sheets for big companies led to layoffs. People assumed everyone would go back to normal once COVID was defeated.

[Pres Mike]

In retrospect, Democrats' decision to reduce in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic did hurt them in many places. For example, a prominent Democratic political strategist from Florida pointed out that Republican gains in South Florida in 2020 were partially the result of Democrats reducing in-person campaigning and their failure to adequately respond to misinformation about their party and their candidates (he mentioned that Obama's success in FL was partly because he went into various communities there and directly confronted misinformation about himself with those voters). I do think that Democrats would probably have won by a bigger margin (and possibly won more seats in Congress) had they done a little more in-person campaigning (albeit still trying to maintain safety precautions whenever possible).

I agree the ban on in person campaigning hurt Democrats. Probably cost them a few house seats.

But other than NC, where else would it have affected at the presidential or senate level? Sure AZ/GA/WI were too close for comfort so some extra padding would have been nice.

But I doubt it would have flipped FL or TX.

[Tekken_Guy]

A common line you hear regarding the 2020 election is that it was the worst political environment in decades for an incumbent political party. Yet as we all know, Trump and the GOP only narrowly lost and actually.

So was the environment really as bad as it appeared at the time, given the result? What did the Democrats do to nearly blow the 2020 in this supposedly horrible political environment? And let's not resort to anything about polarization.

It was, but Biden failed to actually campaign too seriously.

Trump largely ended up in the same place Hillary did, and Biden pretty much ended up being able to win by doing nothing...just like Trump in 2016. We really can't be sure what difference moving election day forward or back one week would've done.


A serious campaign with an actual direction would've easily flipped NC and Florida and moved the complete Midwest by as much as MN moved.

On the flip side Trump ran a pretty atrocious campaign. Had his campaign been half as good as his 2016 one he likely would have gotten a second term. If he was able to remain disciplined he could have won the house back for the GOP.

[SWE]

That we count votes from Trump states more than those from Biden states indicates nothing about the environment. The margin by which the American public preferred Biden wasn't particularly close

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Of course it was.  America was in a very dark place (still is) and the populace's answer was to give 155,000,000 votes to two absolutely atrocious candidates.  

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It was closer than the national environment would suggest because the recession was Covid-induced (and as we know now, only lasted two months) and anyone blaming Trump for it was never going to vote for him anyway.

Yeah this was always a weird talking point.

"Trump had 15% unemployment! The economy is horrible! Entire industries are going bankrupt!"

Weren't Democrats the ones most vocal about folks staying home? True or not, the narrative was Trump wanted people shopping and back to work. Kids in school.

That hurt Democrats with Hispanics in Nevada and Texas. And the losses in VA and NJ in 2021.

Plus it was a "COVID" recession. No one blamed Trump for record unemployment. Nothing he did cause that. Anyone who blamed him wasn't going to vote for him at all.

Nor did most Americans think it was a real "Recession". It wasn't like in 2007 when the balance sheets for big companies led to layoffs. People assumed everyone would go back to normal once COVID was defeated.

The part in bold is literally what Steve Schmidt was saying....one reason I didn't particularly care for the Lincoln Project even if I support their long-term goals.

[Cyrusman]

It was, but it didn't become bad until June or July of 2020. For 6-8 months prior to that point, I honestly thought Trump was gonna win.

Why do you think it was June or July as opposed to April or may?

[dw93]

It was, but it didn't become bad until June or July of 2020. For 6-8 months prior to that point, I honestly thought Trump was gonna win.

Why do you think it was June or July as opposed to April or may?

If you'll remember the country initially started to rally behind Trump in the early days of the pandemic, and it was around June/July that it became clear that he screwed the pooch in dealing with the pandemic (and that he was warned about it as early as January), and it was also at that time that he dumped a can a gas on the fire that was race relations in the US in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd.

In short, Trump could've won, but he shot himself (and in turn the country) in the foot one too many times and lost it in the end.

[Tekken_Guy]

It was, but it didn't become bad until June or July of 2020. For 6-8 months prior to that point, I honestly thought Trump was gonna win.

Why do you think it was June or July as opposed to April or may?

If you'll remember the country initially started to rally behind Trump in the early days of the pandemic, and it was around June/July that it became clear that he screwed the pooch in dealing with the pandemic (and that he was warned about it as early as January), and it was also at that time that he dumped a can a gas on the fire that was race relations in the US in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd.

In short, Trump could've won, but he shot himself (and in turn the country) in the foot one too many times and lost it in the end.

And then lockdowns and riots/Defund the Police happened and that shifted a lot of voters back towards the GOP.

[dw93]

It was, but it didn't become bad until June or July of 2020. For 6-8 months prior to that point, I honestly thought Trump was gonna win.

Why do you think it was June or July as opposed to April or may?

If you'll remember the country initially started to rally behind Trump in the early days of the pandemic, and it was around June/July that it became clear that he screwed the pooch in dealing with the pandemic (and that he was warned about it as early as January), and it was also at that time that he dumped a can a gas on the fire that was race relations in the US in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd.

In short, Trump could've won, but he shot himself (and in turn the country) in the foot one too many times and lost it in the end.

And then lockdowns and riots/Defund the Police happened and that shifted a lot of voters back towards the GOP.

Not enough shifted back to get Trump over the finish line though. Defund the police and the riots no doubt hurt the Democrats, hence the Republican gains downticket (outside of the Senate), but they didn't help Trump, and as for the lockdowns, most of the people who opposed them were gonna back Trump anyway so they by themselves didn't make that much of a difference.

[Del Tachi]

The national environment is a given.  Trump was just more popular (and Democrats/Biden less) than the punditry/polls indicated

[BG-NY]

The strongest republican nominee in a generation lost to the weakest democratic nominee since Mondale, by the skin of his teeth. Yeah, it was that bad.