Will Oregon get a Republican majority in its House delegation?

[I’m not Stu]

Will OR-02, OR-04, OR-05, and OR-06 all elect Republicans for a 4-2 majority?

[Vespucci]

I suppose it's possible in an R tsunami, but in no way likely (and it certainly wouldn't last past 2024)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's not particularly likely but it's possible. The hardest seat to take is retiring Rep. DeFazio's, but Skarlatos is a strong candidate and has a better shot at winning than other Republicans.

[OBD]

Lmao, no.

[I’m not Stu]

Will OR-06 elect a Democrat?

[Schiff for Senate]

Will OR-06 elect a Democrat?

Yes.


Anyway, I'm impressed. 23 votes, and not a single vote for the Yes option!

[Xing]

Extremely unlikely, even in a Republican tsunami.

[Schiff for Senate]

Extremely unlikely, even in a Republican tsunami.

This. I'd go far enough to say it's basically impossible, though, and I'd bet anyone at any odds, and any amount of money, that the GOP does not win a majority of OR's house seats.

[beesley]

Highly unlikely - 50-50 is not guaranteed either.

[patzer]

Probably something like 65% chance of 5D-1R, 20% chance of 4D-2R, 10% chance of 3D-3R, 5% chance of 2D-4R.

[Schiff for Senate]

Probably something like 65% chance of 5D-1R, 20% chance of 4D-2R, 10% chance of 3D-3R, 5% chance of 2D-4R.

I'd say:

65-70% for a 5-1
25-30% for a 4-2
5% (or even a bit less) for a 3-3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No OR is gonna stay D

[Chips]

It's possible, but I still think OR-04 will likely stay DEM at least.