“Favorite Son” Areas for Past Presidents

[Unelectable Bystander]

For past presidents (both recent and/or older) or even influential congresspeople, what was their defining area where they over-performed in a way that nobody else in their party could do? It could be an entire state or certain counties. Kind of like a favorite son but not specific to the candidate’s home state.

For example, it’s still too early to define one for Biden, but maybe it could be Arizona or Georgia if one of those somehow end up staying lean R for another generation. It would certainly be a spot with a high number of educated or military voters

[Calthrina950]

In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed in Hawaii, his birth state. He is the only Democrat to have broken 70% there since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Clinton and Biden both got around 62-63% in Hawaii, by comparison. Obama also overperformed significantly in Illinois (his state of residence), in 2008, and is the only presidential candidate of either party to break 60% there since Warren G. Harding in 1920.

George W. Bush overperformed in Texas in 2000 and 2004, while Bill Clinton overperformed in Arkansas in 1992 (Arkansas was the only state to give a majority to any candidate that year). Carter definitely overperformed in Georgia in 1976, obtaining 67% of the vote and sweeping every county, the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so (and one of only two presidential candidates overall, Richard Nixon in 1972 being the other). Johnson overperformed in Texas in 1964 (and helped pull the state for both Kennedy and Humphrey), and Kennedy himself overperformed in Massachusetts in 1960. Harry Truman overperformed in Missouri in 1948.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Pennsylvania in 1856.  It was one of only two Northern states where James Buchanan won over 50% of the vote.  Then when his faction didn't win the 1860 nomination, the Democrats lost by a margin of nearly 20%.  The state didn't vote Democrat again until 1936.  Buchanan probably would have lost Pennsylvania had he run in 1860 though.

Edit: 1936, not 1912

[Pres Mike]

Biden slightly improved on Hillary in most of the Midwest but improved the most in northeast Pennsylvania. Scranton, where he was born.

New York was pretty close in 1944. FDR won it 52-47%. I think he won it because it was his home state.

Texas only voted for Humphrey in 1968 because he was LBJ VP

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

To avoid using a president's home state:


JFK: New Jersey or Connecticut
Lyndon Johnson: Should be Vermont. No Democrat was able to win it again for a long time.
Richard Nixon: Oklahoma
Gerald Ford: Chicago suburbs or state of Washington
Jimmy Carter: To avoid saying Georgia, I'll say Maryland with West Virginia a close second
Ronald Reagan: Massachusetts or Utah, depending on how you want to look at it
George HW Bush: There were no states he was particularly strong in, and he only depleted the Reagan coalition from 1984 to 1992. So, I'll say Toombs County, GA
Bill Clinton: Louisiana, as he held onto it twice strongly.
George Bush: Nebraska, I don't see any Republican winning by those margins again any time soon.
Barack Obama: Someone already said Hawaii, so Indiana
Donald Trump: Elliott County, KY is the most interesting, but Ohio wins out as a state
Joe Biden: Georgia, because it didn't vote Democrat in any election in 2018

[Schiff for Senate]

George HW Bush: There were no states he was particularly strong in, and he only depleted the Reagan coalition from 1984 to 1992. So, I'll say Toombs County, GA

Actually, HW in 1988 overperformed Ford in 1976 (obviously) and Reagan in both 1980 (of course) and 1984 (!!). So I would say TN and random rural parts of the south as well (like Edgefield County, SC and Hardeman County, TN).

[Schiff for Senate]

Barack Obama: Someone already said Hawaii, so Indiana

This is so true. Obama's overperformance in IL is pretty overrated. HI, his birth state, as Calthrina950 said, swung a massive 36 points towards the Democrats in 2008 and has swung a lot to the right from 2012-2016 and 2012-2020, and in IN, he managed to take it from Bush+20 to Obama+1 in just four years - this is different from CO and VA inthat the swing is much more massive, and it didn't have to do with long-term trends or diversifying suburbs, since as of 2020 IN is back to being a solid red state. (It's also worth noting that while IN swung hard to the right from 2012 to 2016, IL actually swung leftwards, despite the country swinging rightwards and Obama's apparent home state advantage.)

Somewhat similar to IN (though IN was bigger), Obama actually overperformed across the Upper Midwest (MI+WI+MN) and IA - he won 32 counties in IA in 2012 that went for Trump twice thereafter, and most of those counties were very rural and overwhelmingly white.

[Schiff for Senate]

Joe Biden: Georgia, because it didn't vote Democrat in any election in 2018

GA is because of trends and is not particular to just Biden. Also, Abrams came quite close to victory in 2018. And it's worth noting both Ossoff and Warnock outperformed Biden against incumbetn GOP senators just a few months after the presidential race. So definitely not GA. I'd say your home state of AZ is closer to that than GA is.

I would say his home state bump came from eastern California (cough cough - Inyo County) and MD's Eastern Shore (right next to his home state of DE, where I feel his overperformance was kind of underwhelming, as was his overperformance in the part of PA he was born in).

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

George HW Bush: There were no states he was particularly strong in, and he only depleted the Reagan coalition from 1984 to 1992. So, I'll say Toombs County, GA

Actually, HW in 1988 overperformed Ford in 1976 (obviously) and Reagan in both 1980 (of course) and 1984 (!!). So I would say TN and random rural parts of the south as well (like Edgefield County, SC and Hardeman County, TN).

I was thinking of using Tennessee, but the fact that he lost it in 1992 (and it's been a pretty easy state for a Republican to win since 1952) caused me to stop short of that.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

Joe Biden: Georgia, because it didn't vote Democrat in any election in 2018

GA is because of trends and is not particular to just Biden. Also, Abrams came quite close to victory in 2018. And it's worth noting both Ossoff and Warnock outperformed Biden against incumbetn GOP senators just a few months after the presidential race. So definitely not GA. I'd say your home state of AZ is closer to that than GA is.

I would say his home state bump came from eastern California (cough cough - Inyo County) and MD's Eastern Shore (right next to his home state of DE, where I feel his overperformance was kind of underwhelming, as was his overperformance in the part of PA he was born in).

Well, the swing in Georgia was larger than Arizona's. I thought Arizona had a great chance of flipping, Georgia not so much. I think the Georgia senate seats flipping was largely because of "stop the steal" causing lower Republican turnout and Republicans actually would have won them without it (like they outperformed in the runoffs in 2008). I do think Arizona is more likely to vote Republican than Georgia is in 2022 and 2024, but that's actually part of my calculation.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not Counting Home States this is what I would say:


Reagan: Texas
HW Bush: New Jersey
Clinton: California
W Bush: Arkansas
Obama: Wisconsin
Trump: West Virginia

[Podgy the Bear]

Pennsylvania in 1856.  It was one of only two Northern states where James Buchanan won over 50% of the vote.  Then when his faction didn't win the 1860 nomination, the Democrats lost by a margin of nearly 20%.  The state didn't vote Democrat again until 1912.  Buchanan probably would have lost Pennsylvania had he run in 1860 though.

Actually, it didn't vote Democratic until 1936.  TR took the state in 1912.