2012:President McCain vs Senator Obama (read the description)

[Yupper]

Kerry wins in 2004, and loses to McCain in 2008 due to the recession. How does McCain do against Obama in 2012?

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think McCain would actually run for a second term in 2012, regardless of the scenario.

Assuming Palin is still VP, she'd run and probably win the nomination, and depending on whether McCain is popular or not, wins the Presidency.

[BigVic]

Palin wins the primary but loses the general

[Agonized-Statism]

2008

President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) ✓

President Kerry is better able to share the blame for Iraq and the recession than Bush IOTL. Then there's Edwards likely retiring- either in a scandal, because he demonstrated that behavior IOTL and would do something like it here, or less controversially because he would want to spend time with his dying wife. Obama really steps into the spotlight as Kerry's running mate here. Still a Republican victory but not the mandate Obama had against the Republicans IOTL. Not to mention McCain is a terrible candidate to run any time after Iraq has gotten unpopular regardless of the incumbent.

2012

President John McCain (R-AZ) / Vice President Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Fmr. Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (TP-NY) / Governor Sarah Palin (TP-AK)

McCain starts a war with Iran in 2009 to disarm an alleged nuclear weapons program and in support of the Green Movement protests, and a combination of the oil shock and congressional Republicans' doubling down on Reaganomics plunges the country indisputably into a second Great Depression. By the 2010 midterms, factionalism is tearing the GOP apart. None other than Donald Trump emerges to primary McCain and then run third-party.

[NewYorkExpress]

2008

President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) ✓

President Kerry is better able to share the blame for Iraq and the recession than Bush IOTL. Then there's Edwards likely retiring- either in a scandal, because he demonstrated that behavior IOTL and would do something like it here, or less controversially because he would want to spend time with his dying wife. Obama really steps into the spotlight as Kerry's running mate here. Still a Republican victory but not the mandate Obama had against the Republicans IOTL. Not to mention McCain is a terrible candidate to run any time after Iraq has gotten unpopular regardless of the incumbent.

2012

President John McCain (R-AZ) / Vice President Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Fmr. Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (TP-NY) / Governor Sarah Palin (TP-AK)

McCain starts a war with Iran in 2009 to disarm an alleged nuclear weapons program and in support of the Green Movement protests, and a combination of the oil shock and congressional Republicans' doubling down on Reaganomics plunges the country indisputably into a second Great Depression. By the 2010 midterms, factionalism is tearing the GOP apart. None other than Donald Trump emerges to primary McCain and then run third-party.

A couple of comments:

I think McCain still picks Palin, even in this universe (which is a really scary but whatever).

In your 2012 scenario, either McCain doesn't run, or Palin (whether or not she's VP here), is more likely to try and primary McCain than Trump is if he runs, and she'd probably win the nomination in that scenario.

Also, Edwards would likely resign sometime in 2006-2007 when the Rielle Hunter scandal comes out, and the VP would probably be Joe Lieberman, as he'd be the only Democrat who could get through a Republican controlled Congress. Lieberman remains on the ticket in 2008, most likely.

[Agonized-Statism]

I think McCain still picks Palin, even in this universe (which is a really scary but whatever).

Doubt. Palin seemed to be a really weak attempt by a feeble McCain to both satisfy social conservatives and steal the 'change' mantle from Obama with a woman as his running mate, winking and nudging at Clinton supporters to jump ship. The Clinton-Obama fight, and the divide McCain thought he was exploiting, is absent here. Not to mention that a GOP less stressed by its obvious collapse during Bush's second term wouldn't have grassroots conservatives demanding the fringiest running mate. They would still reject Lieberman but Pawlenty would be acceptable to them.

In your 2012 scenario, either McCain doesn't run, or Palin (whether or not she's VP here), is more likely to try and primary McCain than Trump is if he runs, and she'd probably win the nomination in that scenario.

Doubt. He stayed in the senate until his death, nor did he ever make a one-term pledge. But man, where are you to back me up in threads where I suggest Biden won't run in 2024, lmao

Doubt a Vice President Palin would jump ship, that's her administration too. A Governor Palin is a decent candidate for a primary challenger, but Trump would have broader appeal IMO. But a GOP with its establishment still intact would be able to stop a populist takeover, if narrowly. The problem in 2016 was that they had been utterly discredited and didn't coalesce behind a single 'Stop Trump' candidate. Here, the opposition might actually be divided: say, a McCain vs. Palin vs. Trump vs. Huckabee primary.

Also, Edwards would likely resign sometime in 2006-2007 when the Rielle Hunter scandal comes out, and the VP would probably be Joe Lieberman, as he'd be the only Democrat who could get through a Republican controlled Congress. Lieberman remains on the ticket in 2008, most likely.

Rielle Hunter probably doesn't happen if he's VP, but I don't doubt he'd cheat on his wife with another woman later on. In any case, regardless of who occupies the Vice Presidency, I see Kerry running with Obama as a stunt to try to save his campaign when he still thinks he has a shot pre-Lehman Bankruptcy.

[Chips]

With good Hispanic appeal combined with doing well with traditional conservatives and ancestral Democrats leads to McCain winning 317-221. Obama does well in the upper-Midwest but he loses every other swing state with McCain flipping NH, PA and even ME2 from IRL 2004 while holding all the IRL Bush states. It's possible McCain craters but assuming the economy recovers along roughly the same trajectories I think this is a pretty possible map for such a scenario.

[BigVic]

2008

President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) ✓

President Kerry is better able to share the blame for Iraq and the recession than Bush IOTL. Then there's Edwards likely retiring- either in a scandal, because he demonstrated that behavior IOTL and would do something like it here, or less controversially because he would want to spend time with his dying wife. Obama really steps into the spotlight as Kerry's running mate here. Still a Republican victory but not the mandate Obama had against the Republicans IOTL. Not to mention McCain is a terrible candidate to run any time after Iraq has gotten unpopular regardless of the incumbent.

2012

President John McCain (R-AZ) / Vice President Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Fmr. Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (TP-NY) / Governor Sarah Palin (TP-AK)

McCain starts a war with Iran in 2009 to disarm an alleged nuclear weapons program and in support of the Green Movement protests, and a combination of the oil shock and congressional Republicans' doubling down on Reaganomics plunges the country indisputably into a second Great Depression. By the 2010 midterms, factionalism is tearing the GOP apart. None other than Donald Trump emerges to primary McCain and then run third-party.

The centenary of the 1912 election marked with the GOP incumbent losing in a landslide with the third party candidate scoring more votes and placing 2nd

[Churro]

I think Obama would probably win, though it wouldn't be an easy victory.

Also, this timeline could potentially put us into 2 decades+ of one term presidents.

2000: Bush
2004: Kerry
2008: McCain
2012: Obama
2016: Trump
2020: some democrat?
2024: some republican?

[BigVic]

I think Obama would probably win, though it wouldn't be an easy victory.

Also, this timeline could potentially put us into 2 decades+ of one term presidents.

2000: Bush
2004: Kerry
2008: McCain
2012: Obama
2016: Trump
2020: some democrat?
2024: some republican?

An interesting scenario. One-term wonders in the 21st century

[Medal506]

McCain would win re election because we would have been coming out of an economic recession in 2012.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If McCain had been elected, he'd have been reelected.  McCain would not have been blamed for the economic downturn.  Assuming he had the economy at the level Obama had it in 2012 he'd have been re-elected against a still-inexperienced IL Senator (although with more experience than Obama had when he DID run for President).

[Mail-order President]

Kerry would've been destroyed in 2008, probably only getting around 190 EV and 46% PV.

In 2012, McCain would narrowly win with a map similar to Bush 04 OTL. Obama's strength in the upper Midwest keeps IA/WI out of reach for McCain, but McCain has a good night in the sunbelt. OH is decided by under 0.5% for McCain. 2016 would probably be Palin vs Clinton.



President John McCain (R-AZ)/Vice President Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 49.8% 279 EV
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) - 48.5% 259 EV

Closest States:
Ohio (tipping point)
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia

[dw93]

McCain botches the response to the Financial crisis and likely goes to war with one of Iran, Syria, or Libya by the end of his term. The Democrats retake the House and Senate in 2010 and Obama wins a landslide in 2012 and is re elected in 2016. A Republican probably wins in 2020 though.