Potential Upset: Republican Trifecta in CT?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Despite Biden winning CT by over 20% in 2020, CT Rs have historically had pretty strong down ballot strength, winning many Biden + double digit seats in the state legislature.

Ned Lamont is not necessarily the most charismatic or popular incumbent, and he only won by 3% in 2018 against Stefanowski who Rs are running again (though we'll see if he wins the primary).

In the state legistlature, Rs have already had some really solid overperformances in 2020 and in that State Senate special election costing Dems their state senate supermajority. Both chambers seem potentially vulnerable to Dems.

While the chances of this happening as of now are still probably below 50%, it seems like a real possibility, though would probably be short lived.

[Duke of York]

Connecticut special elections are never indicative of anything. Democrats have a long history of underperforming in specials there. Lamont isn't going to lose and Republicans are very unlikely to gain either chamber. if they could not do it in 2010 or 2014 they will not do it this year.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans would have to win a number of seats  where Biden won by over 20 points to get a majority in either chamber.

[Senator Incitatus]

Connecticut special elections are never indicative of anything. Democrats have a long history of underperforming in specials there. Lamont isn't going to lose and Republicans are very unlikely to gain either chamber. if they could not do it in 2010 or 2014 they will not do it this year.

New England special elections in general mean nothing due to high levels of voter information, ticket splitting, and parochial traditions.

[progressive85]

If there's one area of the country that's going to resist most of the red wave, it's New England.  I just don't see the Republican Party really convincing a lot of swing voters that it's the old Republican Party of Eisenhower.

It's not nearly as explored as the South is - but New England is a fascinating region because it used to be very Republican.  It had FOUR states (ME, VT, CT, and NH) that stayed with Hoover in 1932.

[MT Treasurer]

I actually do think this wave is going to hit New England harder than 2010/2014 (at the federal level, at least), but I still wouldn’t expect Republicans to beat Lamont, much less to win both chambers of the CT legislature. I think they have a chance of winning CT-05 and even CT-02 on a really bad night for Democrats, however. They could conceivably also win some other statewide race, but GOV seems very unlikely.  

Democrats are so exposed in New England and reliant on rural/small-town white voters (again, not all of those are *radically secular*) that the dam could easily break in a few seats much like it did in IA in 2014.

[Politician]

I actually do think this wave is going to hit New England harder than 2010/2014 (at the federal level, at least), but I still wouldn’t expect Republicans to beat Lamont, much less to win both chambers of the CT legislature. I think they have a chance of winning CT-05 and even CT-02 on a really bad night for Democrats, however. They could conceivably also win some other statewide race, but GOV seems very unlikely.  

Democrats are so exposed in New England and reliant on rural/small-town white voters (again, not all of those are *radically secular*) that the dam could easily break in a few seats much like it did in IA in 2014.

Vermont and Western Massachusetts though, the rural whites outside of the northeast still tend to be very, very liberal and vote like urban liberals. 

[MT Treasurer]

I actually do think this wave is going to hit New England harder than 2010/2014 (at the federal level, at least), but I still wouldn’t expect Republicans to beat Lamont, much less to win both chambers of the CT legislature. I think they have a chance of winning CT-05 and even CT-02 on a really bad night for Democrats, however. They could conceivably also win some other statewide race, but GOV seems very unlikely.  

Democrats are so exposed in New England and reliant on rural/small-town white voters (again, not all of those are *radically secular*) that the dam could easily break in a few seats much like it did in IA in 2014.

Vermont and Western Massachusetts though, the rural whites outside of the northeast still tend to be very, very liberal and vote like urban liberals. 

It’s a question of how sustainable you think those margins are for Democrats. Obviously I don’t expect places like VT-AL, MA-01, MA-02, etc. to be remotely competitive/close, but Democrats have far less room for any collapse in the white vote in other seats like ME-02, CT-05, CT-02, NH-02 (esp. if the map drawn by the Legislature is vetoed by Sununu). If they lose some of those in addition to NH-01 and maybe one other upset seat (RI-2?), Republicans will likely have more Representatives from New England than after 2010/2014.

[Minnesota Mike]

I never say there is a 0% chance but this is pretty damn close. Republicans would have to flip every seat under Biden+20 in the state senate and I would guess the same is true in the state house (I didn't look) plus winning a longshot governors race. Not a serious thread.

[Schiff for Senate]

Zero chance.

I can see Lamont losing quite easily in 2022, a red year, if he won by just 3 points in 2018, a blue year, and those who are saying "Lamont isn't going to lose" (such as Duke of York) should not be so sure of themselves. The CTGOP, like many other New England Republican parties, does much better at the state level than at the federal level. MA and VT, two of the bluest states in the country in the 2020 presidential race, have a massive number of people who vote Republican downballot - both elected GOP governors in landslides in their most recent governor elections. Even outside New England, NJ (about as blue as CT and probably with a lower proportion of Democrats willing to vote GOP downballot) nearly went red in 2021, and I wouldn't say Lamont is much stronger than Murphy. So unless the GOP candidate turns out to be a train-wreck (like an extremist or something), if Lamont did only win by 3 points in 2018, there is no reason to assume he is by any means safe for reelection.

The General Assembly seems solid to stay blue, hence the impossibility of a GOP trifecta here. The legislature already has a very large number of moderate/maverick/Rockefeller Republicans who represent Biden districts, and I'm almost certain all Trump and all or most narrowly-Biden seats are already held by the GOP. So while they can probably pick up a few seats in 2022, they will be very, very hard-pressed (and it might well be impossible) to flip the, for example, 23 seats (nearly a quarter of the entire Democratic body in that house, and over 15% of all seats) they would need to win back the House of Representatives. In the Senate they'd need to flip 7 seats (nearly 30% of all Democrat-held seats and nearly 20% of all seats). To put it another way, there is little room, it seems, for the CTGOP to win many more seats, and given how far short of a majority they currently are, it would require a complete and total upheaval of the CT Democrats and literally everything going right for the CTGOP for this to be realistically possible.

[Schiff for Senate]

I actually do think this wave is going to hit New England harder than 2010/2014 (at the federal level, at least), but I still wouldn’t expect Republicans to beat Lamont, much less to win both chambers of the CT legislature. I think they have a chance of winning CT-05 and even CT-02 on a really bad night for Democrats, however. They could conceivably also win some other statewide race, but GOV seems very unlikely.  

Democrats are so exposed in New England and reliant on rural/small-town white voters (again, not all of those are *radically secular*) that the dam could easily break in a few seats much like it did in IA in 2014.

Two points - I'm not very well-versed on CT politics, but I don't see why it's so unlikely for the GOP to capture the governor's mansion in a red year if they fell just 3 points short in a blue year, unless they end up fielding a terrible candidate; and Courtney isn't losing - he is an electoral titan, and as Biden won the district by 11 points, Courtney did so by 21, and lost a small number of towns even though most of them were rural and many backed Trump. CT05 could flip if it's a good night for the GOP, but CT02 isn't flipping unless it's an absolute bloodbath (in which case Lamont certainly goes down) or Courtney faces a massive scandal in the vein of Taylor or Cuellar all of a sudden.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I actually do think this wave is going to hit New England harder than 2010/2014 (at the federal level, at least), but I still wouldn’t expect Republicans to beat Lamont, much less to win both chambers of the CT legislature. I think they have a chance of winning CT-05 and even CT-02 on a really bad night for Democrats, however. They could conceivably also win some other statewide race, but GOV seems very unlikely.  

Democrats are so exposed in New England and reliant on rural/small-town white voters (again, not all of those are *radically secular*) that the dam could easily break in a few seats much like it did in IA in 2014.

Vermont and Western Massachusetts though, the rural whites outside of the northeast still tend to be very, very liberal and vote like urban liberals. 

It’s a question of how sustainable you think those margins are for Democrats. Obviously I don’t expect places like VT-AL, MA-01, MA-02, etc. to be remotely competitive/close, but Democrats have far less room for any collapse in the white vote in other seats like ME-02, CT-05, CT-02, NH-02 (esp. if the map drawn by the Legislature is vetoed by Sununu). If they lose some of those in addition to NH-01 and maybe one other upset seat (RI-2?), Republicans will likely have more Representatives from New England than after 2010/2014.

I think New England is going to start trending right and I think this election might be the first signs of it. Democrats probably reached their peak in 2020, but they are so overexposed and vulnerable in the region its bound to swing right by quite a bit.

[beesley]

The main result for Connecticut Republicans, if successful, will be getting their first member of Congress in the state since the 2008 elections. By any metric including but not limited to partisan Fairness, the Connecticut map isn't great and so they should really have had one anyway, but they are doing well enough now that they have a strong chance of unseating Jahana Hayes.

[Schiff for Senate]

The main result for Connecticut Republicans, if successful, will be getting their first member of Congress in the state since the 2008 elections. By any metric including but not limited to partisan Fairness, the Connecticut map isn't great and so they should really have had one anyway, but they are doing well enough now that they have a strong chance of unseating Jahana Hayes.

A fair map really probably is a 4-0 with one competitive seat. The GOP is not entitled to a single safe or even red-leaning seat in CT unless it is a Republican gerrymander and you are going out of your way to help them. Admittedly, the current map - with 3 solid blue seats and 2 that are just about blue enough to withstand even a decent-sized GOP wave - is too good for the Democrats, and it'd probably be fairer to have one of the D+2 districts become about EVEN or maybe even R+1 instead (depending on CT's actual political geography, on which I possess little knowledge).

Anyway, I think in 2022 with the maps as they are, the three Democrats from the solid blue seats are safe, and Courtney (who has strong crossover appeal) is also safe, but, as you said, Hayes is probably in trouble. I would rate the race about Lean Democratic, tops, and perhaps even Tilt Democratic.

[mpbond]

CT Politics is hyper-localized, like much of New England. Lamont is actually very popular, in fact he's the most popular democratic gov. according to Morning Consult. Lamont gets a lot of credit in the state for his pandemic policies and for legalizing things like weed and sports gambling. The pandemic especially helps him as he opened the state back up quickly in 2020, facilitated a quick and smooth vaccine rollout in 2021 (anecdotal but as a college student in MA, I was able to get vaccinated at home in CT nearly a month before my MA classmates), and in 2022 did not implement any mask or vaccine mandates and was a huge proponent of keeping schools and businesses open during the recent wave. The state weathered the pandemic pretty well and recovered faster than other states, which he receives a lot of credit for by both Republicans and Democrats. Overall he generally receives high marks for his pandemic handling, usually receiving ~70% approval. Like I said CT politics is hyper-local and anything can happen, and at this point I think that helps Lamont a lot.

[Chips]

Never say never, though it is rather unlikely with both chambers having roughly a 1 in 5 chance of flipping according to cnalysis. Also the governor race looks to be at least leaning DEM.

[MATTROSE94]

The Republicans will sweep all races in Connecticut in 2022 with the exception of CT-1. The Unbeatable Titan Themis Klarides’ victory margin over Richard Blumenthal will help all other Republicans running in Connecticut.

[Xing]

I think Lamont could definitely lose, but I don't see Republicans getting a trifecta.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Lamont could definitely lose, but I don't see Republicans getting a trifecta.

Lol Lamont isn't losing

[mpbond]

The Republicans will sweep all races in Connecticut in 2022 with the exception of CT-1. The Unbeatable Titan Themis Klarides’ victory margin over Richard Blumenthal will help all other Republicans running in Connecticut.

Yep pretty much the mood of the CTGOP right now. Theres a lot of hype around Klarides even though She's in many ways a weak candidate. It originates from her being one of the most outspoken and effective Republicans in the legislature when we had the extremely unpopular Governor Malloy and later under Lamont when Dems were trying to push through unpopular things like tolls.
However, it wasn't as effective when Lamont became popular during the pandemic, and she moved into the typical Republican anti-mask/anti-vax arena. In 2020, when it looked like her house seat could flip (it did), she retired instead of potentially losing. She is also married to an executive of the extremely unpopular utility company Eversource, which is currently being accused of price gouging and monopolizing the Electric industry in the state, and is well known for her close ties to the company. So while Klarides does have some good candidate qualities in her being an effective foil to the more unpopular parts of the Dem trifecta, there is also a lot of mud that could easily be slung at her.

[New England Fire Squad]

The Republicans will sweep all races in Connecticut in 2022 with the exception of CT-1. The Unbeatable Titan Themis Klarides’ victory margin over Richard Blumenthal will help all other Republicans running in Connecticut.

Yep pretty much the mood of the CTGOP right now. Theres a lot of hype around Klarides even though She's in many ways a weak candidate. It originates from her being one of the most outspoken and effective Republicans in the legislature when we had the extremely unpopular Governor Malloy and later under Lamont when Dems were trying to push through unpopular things like tolls.
However, it wasn't as effective when Lamont became popular during the pandemic, and she moved into the typical Republican anti-mask/anti-vax arena. In 2020, when it looked like her house seat could flip (it did), she retired instead of potentially losing. She is also married to an executive of the extremely unpopular utility company Eversource, which is currently being accused of price gouging and monopolizing the Electric industry in the state, and is well known for her close ties to the company. So while Klarides does have some good candidate qualities in her being an effective foil to the more unpopular parts of the Dem trifecta, there is also a lot of mud that could easily be slung at her.

Blumenthal won't lose, but I do think Klarides gets 40%+, which is kind of a win in a sad moral way if you're CTGOP. Definitely a better candidate then the no name who ran against ol' Dick last time.

[New England Fire Squad]

Since I'm 'boots on the ground', here's my take:

1. Lamont is pretty safe. Stefanowski was somewhat of a lackluster campaigner last time around (his wife was honestly better at it than he was), and the race was as close it was really just due to Malloy being the most unpopular Governor in the nation at the time. It'll probably be within single digits, but not as close as last time.

2. The CTGOP has a real shot at taking over the State Senate, imo. This isn't without precedence, as they tied in this chamber in 2016. There are quite a few low hanging fruit senate seats in Eastern CT alone, held by Cathy Osten, Norm Needleman, and Mae Flexer. There are only two seats currently held which could be called Rockefeller Republican districts, and one of them has an incumbent who has held on even in bad GOP years, Tony Hwang (the other is the seat picked up in the recent special election). There are another 3-4 pickup opportunities (Matt Lesser's seat is a stretch, but possible), and if the GOP red wave is big enough it's certainly possible to win the state senate, although I think that the state house is a bridge too far as of now.

3. Blumenthal is even safer than Malloy, although Klarides is probably the best candidate to ever run against him (certainly better than Webster, and probably with more upside than McMahon) and she can probably make it respectable.

4. The CTGOP has a real shot at both CT-5 (as horribly gerrymandered as it is) and CT-2. George Logan is the best candidate in CT-5 since Rorabach, and will definitely make it within single digits, and win here is possible, especially with the way that Greater Waterbury and Naugatuck valley have been trending. In CT-2, Courtney had his lowest margin for reelection against a no-name who didn't campaign (it was his lowest reelect by only a point or two, but the other time was in 2010 against someone who actually campaigned and was well known) and only won his primary due to the other guy dropping out and being arrested in 2020. The district is trending redder due to a vast (for Connecticut) rural interior and depopulating old industrial cities. Not only that, Courtney will have to face a guy who actually has won an election before for the first time since 2006, Mike France, who is by far the best candidate the CTGOP has run here since Simmons lost. The National GOP has flagged this race as potentially competitive, and the DCCC have put Courtney into their Frontline program. Definitely a race to watch.

[mpbond]

Since I'm 'boots on the ground', here's my take:

1. Lamont is pretty safe. Stefanowski was somewhat of a lackluster campaigner last time around (his wife was honestly better at it than he was), and the race was as close it was really just due to Malloy being the most unpopular Governor in the nation at the time. It'll probably be within single digits, but not as close as last time.

2. The CTGOP has a real shot at taking over the State Senate, imo. This isn't without precedence, as they tied in this chamber in 2016. There are quite a few low hanging fruit senate seats in Eastern CT alone, held by Cathy Osten, Norm Needleman, and Mae Flexer. There are only two seats currently held which could be called Rockefeller Republican districts, and one of them has an incumbent who has held on even in bad GOP years, Tony Hwang (the other is the seat picked up in the recent special election). There are another 3-4 pickup opportunities (Matt Lesser's seat is a stretch, but possible), and if the GOP red wave is big enough it's certainly possible to win the state senate, although I think that the state house is a bridge too far as of now.

3. Blumenthal is even safer than Malloy, although Klarides is probably the best candidate to ever run against him (certainly better than Webster, and probably with more upside than McMahon) and she can probably make it respectable.

4. The CTGOP has a real shot at both CT-5 (as horribly gerrymandered as it is) and CT-2. George Logan is the best candidate in CT-5 since Rorabach, and will definitely make it within single digits, and win here is possible, especially with the way that Greater Waterbury and Naugatuck valley have been trending. In CT-2, Courtney had his lowest margin for reelection against a no-name who didn't campaign (it was his lowest reelect by only a point or two, but the other time was in 2010 against someone who actually campaigned and was well known) and only won his primary due to the other guy dropping out and being arrested in 2020. The district is trending redder due to a vast (for Connecticut) rural interior and depopulating old industrial cities. Not only that, Courtney will have to face a guy who actually has won an election before for the first time since 2006, Mike France, who is by far the best candidate the CTGOP has run here since Simmons lost. The National GOP has flagged this race as potentially competitive, and the DCCC have put Courtney into their Frontline program. Definitely a race to watch.

Largely agree, especially in regards to the state senate. Good old fashioned New England ticket splitting makes the Senate and House hard to predict and CT dems didn't have free range over redistricting so anything can happen, though dems are still very much favored.

I think CT-02 and CT-05 are definitely both on the table as well, however I think theres like 20-30 more vulnerable seats elsewhere so if Dems are losing them they have much bigger problems and it wont matter to the ultimate control of the house