Why didn’t W Bush win MI, WI and PA in his 2 elections

[BigVic]

George W. Bush is the only Republican candidate not to win MI, WI and PA twice to win the Presidency.

[Mr. Smith]

He almost took Wisconsin both times.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Detroit was far bigger in 2000/2004 than it is today, plus SW PA was still dem

[WPADEM]

The industrial economy really of these three states really bottomed out again in the 2000's. GOP attacks on Social Issues were not as effective here. And there was a lot of ancestral Democratic support that remained in the right areas, such as South West PA.

[sg0508]

The suburban areas put both Gore and Kerry over the top and some of the more rural areas in these states have more Democrats than other states outside of the upper midwest. The blue collar economy also hurt him, especially in '04.

That being said, he had Wisconsin in the bag by late Sept'04 and then lost it. The Democrats late push to register new voters and the controversial provisional ballots put Kerry over the top.  WI used to do that to the GOP all the time - they polled okay, but lost the leads late due to the Democrats' effort to get out the vote and register voters.

[Schiff for Senate]

Detroit was far bigger in 2000/2004 than it is today, plus SW PA was still dem

Not just Southwest PA. Southwest WI / the Driftless Area was a lot more moderate in 2004 and a bunch of counties that would vote for Trump by a lot in 2020 actually went for Kerry or went for Bush by small margins. Across rural places in MI/WI/PA, Kerry did MUCH better than Clinton and Biden did, and this counterbalanced how the suburbs would trend leftwards in that period. To see just one of scores of examples, look at how Ogemaw County, MI has trended. It was Bush+2 in 2004 and voted for Obama in 2008. But by 2020, it was Trump+40. There are many counties like Ogemaw across the three states, and taken together, they are quite meaningful.

[TML]

Back in the early 2000s, Democratic strength among working-class voters was enough to cancel out Republican strength among suburbanites in MI/PA/WI (but not in OH).

[Bootes Void]

He came very close to winning iin Wisconsin both times(losing by under 1%) and in PA(especially 2004) as well

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

He came very close to winning iin Wisconsin both times(losing by under 1%) and in PA(especially 2004) as well

PA was quite comfortable for Gore in 2000 (over 4%). Michigan was similar. I think Gore had a late surge from union endorsements. The Bush campaign seemed quite shaken by the results in PA in particular - there's a clip of Bush on election night saying that he wasn't conceding PA after the networks called it.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

George W. Bush is the only Republican candidate not to win MI, WI and PA twice to win the Presidency.

This is not accurate. Richard Nixon only won Pennsylvania and Michigan once, not to mention George HW Bush and Calvin Coolidge didn't win Wisconsin in the elections they won. Unionization kept Michigan and Pennsylvania Democratic for quite some time, but that has declined. Wisconsin doesn't have all of that unionization, but they have an anti-war electorate, and the farm crisis likely hurt Republicans for one generation. If Trump had the same positions on trade and immigration as George Bush, then the trio of states would have voted Democratic in 2016 as well.

[TDAS04]

George W. Bush is the only Republican candidate not to win MI, WI and PA twice to win the Presidency.

This is not accurate. Richard Nixon only won Pennsylvania and Michigan once, not to mention George HW Bush and Calvin Coolidge didn't win Wisconsin in the elections they won. Unionization kept Michigan and Pennsylvania Democratic for quite some time, but that has declined. Wisconsin doesn't have all of that unionization, but they have an anti-war electorate, and the farm crisis likely hurt Republicans for one generation. If Trump had the same positions on trade and immigration as George Bush, then the trio of states would have voted Democratic in 2016 as well.

I think OP meant only Republican to win with none of the three states.

[Del Tachi]

In short, Democrats used to perform a lot better with non-college educated Whites.  This was always the trump card that made the "blue wall" possible in the first place.

Democrats enjoyed a very strong advantage in the electoral college from 1992 to 2016.  They just managed to twice squander it losing (narrowly!) to George W. Bush haha

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

That being said, he had Wisconsin in the bag by late Sept'04 and then lost it. The Democrats late push to register new voters and the controversial provisional ballots put Kerry over the top.  WI used to do that to the GOP all the time - they polled okay, but lost the leads late due to the Democrats' effort to get out the vote and register voters.

Yeah, I remember Bush leading in WI throughout the campaign, and I always assumed it was the Gore state most likely to flip. Then, he actually lost it by slightly worse than in 2000...