Most people have her district as likely or safe R, but I'll make a case as to why it could be more competitive, even in 2022.
Firstly, while her district voted for Trump, it was "only" Trump + 7 in 2020, and while the district swung very hard left between 2016 and 2020, it's hard to tell if it's actually shifting left overall.
Secondly, the turnout differentials in this seat, possibly one of the most extreme divides of Dems relying on "elites" in ski resort communities while Republicans rely on more rural working class areas like Mesa could make the seat shift less to the right than the nation as a whole in terms of electorate.
Third, in 2020, we did see some pretty significant underperformances by some notorious members of congress; most notably Omar who underperformed Biden by 24% against a nobody. While Boebert basically matched Trump's performance in 2020, it was before she really became the lightning rod she is now.
Fourth, the nature of this race should mean Dems have all the money they need to campaign, maybe too much to the point where it hurts them.
So even if we have an R + 5 national environment, and maybe an R + 12 electorate in this seat, it's certainly not impossible Boebert could underperform enough to lose, at least at face value?
To be fair that statistic is misleading - Legal Marijuana Now, which I'm guesing predominantly draws votes from Democrats, took 9.5%, and I'm quite sure if that party didn't exist (and there is no GOP equivalent of Legal Marijuana Now in CO), Omar would have done a good bit better (though she'd still underperform by a lot).
I personally feel like if the Democrat candidate is pragmatic and focuses on local, more unifying issues rather than any attempt to bring up Trump, Biden, national issues or hot-button issues, and attacks Boebart for being an ineffective, offensive, far-right showhorse, then
maybe Boebart could go down. Though remember - Boebart is no amateur herself, having beaten the incumbent GOP representative, who was largely uncontroversial and armed with Trump's coveted endorsement, in the 2020 GOP primary. It's possible a gun-toting firebrand really is what a majority of people in CO03 want.
EDIT: And to clarify, I don't think this race can be rated as anything less than Likely Republican, honestly. The year is too red and the district is too red for Lean R or lower to be realistic. If Boebart was originally elected in 2018 and we were discussing her 2020 reelection bid, maybe it'd be more like Lean R (definitely closer to Lean than Safe), and if she was elected in 2016 and we were discussing her 2018 reelection, it would probably be Tossup or maybe, with the right candidate, even Tilt D or so.
