Is Lauren Boebert at all endangered?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:22:32 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Is Lauren Boebert at all endangered?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: Is Lauren Boebert at all endangered?  (Read 3573 times)
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,575


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 17, 2022, 07:48:21 PM »

Most people have her district as likely or safe R, but I'll make a case as to why it could be more competitive, even in 2022.

Firstly, while her district voted for Trump, it was "only" Trump + 7 in 2020, and while the district swung very hard left between 2016 and 2020, it's hard to tell if it's actually shifting left overall.

Secondly, the turnout differentials in this seat, possibly one of the most extreme divides of Dems relying on "elites" in ski resort communities while Republicans rely on more rural working class areas like Mesa could make the seat shift less to the right than the nation as a whole in terms of electorate.

Third, in 2020, we did see some pretty significant underperformances by some notorious members of congress; most notably Omar who underperformed Biden by 24% against a nobody. While Boebert basically matched Trump's performance in 2020, it was before she really became the lightning rod she is now.

Fourth, the nature of this race should mean Dems have all the money they need to campaign, maybe too much to the point where it hurts them.

So even if we have an R + 5 national environment, and maybe an R + 12 electorate in this seat, it's certainly not impossible Boebert could underperform enough to lose, at least at face value?
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2022, 07:49:54 PM »

Maybe in 2026 if Trump wins, or Biden does even better statewide....but not this midterm.
Logged
Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
The Pieman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,294
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2022, 07:50:20 PM »

Boebert is safe
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2022, 07:53:46 PM »

No. Boebert will win both the primary and the general with little difficulty. Redistricting actually made her district slightly more Republican, as she shed some Democratic territory near Aspen and picked up heavily Republican Fremont County, where Canon City is located.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,985
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2022, 08:06:59 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2022, 09:19:50 PM by Roll Roons »

It could be a single-digit race, but I just don't see her actually losing this year.

But she (and Cawthorn) would be in serious trouble in a Republican president's midterm.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2022, 08:12:24 PM »

She's safe, for now. She'll definitely be vulnerable in the next midterm under a Republican president, especially if Colorado continues to lurch leftward and she keeps it up with her childish antics.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2022, 09:00:41 PM »

Not this year, but she could be in the next good year for Democrats.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,768
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2022, 09:56:36 PM »

Maybe in 2026 if Trump wins, or Biden does even better statewide....but not this midterm.

How about 2026 under another Republican President like DeSantis? Or is she only vulnerable
under Trump?
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,296
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2022, 10:16:30 PM »

Maybe in 2026 if Trump wins, or Biden does even better statewide....but not this midterm.

How about 2026 under another Republican President like DeSantis? Or is she only vulnerable
under Trump?

She only won by six in a D+2/3 year, which would be a mediocre year. But I think any Republican President would fail somewhat, so a D+5 midterm would be average. If you add in her craziness it's somewhere between even and her plus four. She's favored, but the Dems are not screwed.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2022, 07:56:05 AM »

Absolutely not, at least in this political climate
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,566
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2022, 08:19:42 AM »

No chance the moustached cowboy looking guy can give her a run for her money in the primary?
Logged
Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
The Pieman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,294
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2022, 08:22:28 AM »

No chance the moustached cowboy looking guy can give her a run for her money in the primary?
No chance lol. Remember Boebert ousted a Trump-backed conservative Republican in 2020, that's how right-wing the voters in this district are.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2022, 09:06:09 AM »

I actually thought her district was eliminated or redrawn to Likely/Safe D territory.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2022, 09:29:47 AM »

It will be a single-digit race.
Logged
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,065
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2022, 02:22:31 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2022, 02:33:53 PM by Sol »

Both Boebert and Cawthorn represent districts with extremely high Democratic floors but very low ceilings. CO-03 seems like an easier lift to me to be honest but I doubt that either is going to lose, especially when both the Ski Counties and Asheville are likely to nominate a candidate with zero appeal to the kind of voters who actually would need to be flipped.

Don't know Colorado too well, but in NC-11 the ideal candidate would probably need to be 1) deeply rooted in a community outside of Asheville, 2) obviously extremely culturally Southern, 3) moderate on a lot of hot-button issues, honestly to the point of being right-wing on guns, and 4) able to play the class warfare game to some extent and tap into resentment around the rising cost of living in a lot of mountain communities. Needless to say, all of these are major disadvantages in actually winning the primary since basically all of them rub the NC-11 Democratic primary electorate wrong, and that's probably a big issue in CO-03 too.
Logged
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,621
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2022, 12:40:13 PM »

Both Boebert and Cawthorn represent districts with extremely high Democratic floors but very low ceilings. CO-03 seems like an easier lift to me to be honest but I doubt that either is going to lose, especially when both the Ski Counties and Asheville are likely to nominate a candidate with zero appeal to the kind of voters who actually would need to be flipped.

Don't know Colorado too well, but in NC-11 the ideal candidate would probably need to be 1) deeply rooted in a community outside of Asheville, 2) obviously extremely culturally Southern, 3) moderate on a lot of hot-button issues, honestly to the point of being right-wing on guns, and 4) able to play the class warfare game to some extent and tap into resentment around the rising cost of living in a lot of mountain communities. Needless to say, all of these are major disadvantages in actually winning the primary since basically all of them rub the NC-11 Democratic primary electorate wrong, and that's probably a big issue in CO-03 too.

The last Dem to win this district was John Salazar, rancher and brother of former US Senator Ken Salazar. He cut an extremely moderate profile, was associated with conservative hispano culture, and had close ties to oil and gas. Someone like that would be ideal, however the oil and gas stuff is increasingly radioactive with Dem primary voters and could easily depress the vote too. Dems best bet is to just hammer Boebert as crazy until demographics make this seat winnable in a few years. It worked on Marilyn Musgraves in 2010, and will work fine here if they just bide their time.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,222


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2022, 12:48:35 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2022, 01:02:21 PM by lfromnj »

Both Boebert and Cawthorn represent districts with extremely high Democratic floors but very low ceilings. CO-03 seems like an easier lift to me to be honest but I doubt that either is going to lose, especially when both the Ski Counties and Asheville are likely to nominate a candidate with zero appeal to the kind of voters who actually would need to be flipped.

Don't know Colorado too well, but in NC-11 the ideal candidate would probably need to be 1) deeply rooted in a community outside of Asheville, 2) obviously extremely culturally Southern, 3) moderate on a lot of hot-button issues, honestly to the point of being right-wing on guns, and 4) able to play the class warfare game to some extent and tap into resentment around the rising cost of living in a lot of mountain communities. Needless to say, all of these are major disadvantages in actually winning the primary since basically all of them rub the NC-11 Democratic primary electorate wrong, and that's probably a big issue in CO-03 too.

Redistricting did shift a bit out the ski country. It seems the primary will now be dominated the Pueblo area. The main ski liberal candidate did drop out. It isn't impossible for someone from there to win but they are still a bit geographically out of the core of the district.

I obviously also mentioned MT's western district which is also really similar geographically and politically with similar Obama 2012 and Biden 2020 numbers a Clinton 2016 collapse.



Purple is the western R base of the district and has been stagnant between 2012 and 2020. Meanwhile Yellow is ski country/other tourism areas and is now the D base and shifted a decent bit left while red used to be the D base but is a bit more R now. Red and Yellow both have around 65k and 70k Biden voters while purple has 50k.

Purple is Trump +33, Yellow is biden +20 and red is Trump +3.
Logged
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,920
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: -1.04

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2022, 09:55:02 PM »

Not at all in 2022, and probably not in 2024. I expect that she might tone down her antics between now and 2026.
Logged
Vice President Christian Man
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,352
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -2.26

P P P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2022, 03:20:39 PM »

Not in a Biden midterm. Even though she's too the right of Trump economically, she has a lot in common with him when it comes to their appeal. Conservatives will enthusiastically vote to re-elect her, while liberals will support whoever her opponent is. Since I anticipate it will be an R-wave, I'm guessing most moderates will reluctantly or unenthusiastically support Boebert, but they are key as in a Dem-wave they could flip the election. Overall I think she'll win, although with the leftward trend of Colorado, she could be in trouble in a future election (maybe in the 2030's?).
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2022, 09:07:17 PM »

Most people have her district as likely or safe R, but I'll make a case as to why it could be more competitive, even in 2022.

Firstly, while her district voted for Trump, it was "only" Trump + 7 in 2020, and while the district swung very hard left between 2016 and 2020, it's hard to tell if it's actually shifting left overall.

Secondly, the turnout differentials in this seat, possibly one of the most extreme divides of Dems relying on "elites" in ski resort communities while Republicans rely on more rural working class areas like Mesa could make the seat shift less to the right than the nation as a whole in terms of electorate.

Third, in 2020, we did see some pretty significant underperformances by some notorious members of congress; most notably Omar who underperformed Biden by 24% against a nobody. While Boebert basically matched Trump's performance in 2020, it was before she really became the lightning rod she is now.

Fourth, the nature of this race should mean Dems have all the money they need to campaign, maybe too much to the point where it hurts them.

So even if we have an R + 5 national environment, and maybe an R + 12 electorate in this seat, it's certainly not impossible Boebert could underperform enough to lose, at least at face value?

To be fair that statistic is misleading - Legal Marijuana Now, which I'm guesing predominantly draws votes from Democrats, took 9.5%, and I'm quite sure if that party didn't exist (and there is no GOP equivalent of Legal Marijuana Now in CO), Omar would have done a good bit better (though she'd still underperform by a lot).

I personally feel like if the Democrat candidate is pragmatic and focuses on local, more unifying issues rather than any attempt to bring up Trump, Biden, national issues or hot-button issues, and attacks Boebart for being an ineffective, offensive, far-right showhorse, then maybe Boebart could go down. Though remember - Boebart is no amateur herself, having beaten the incumbent GOP representative, who was largely uncontroversial and armed with Trump's coveted endorsement, in the 2020 GOP primary. It's possible a gun-toting firebrand really is what a majority of people in CO03 want.

EDIT: And to clarify, I don't think this race can be rated as anything less than Likely Republican, honestly. The year is too red and the district is too red for Lean R or lower to be realistic. If Boebart was originally elected in 2018 and we were discussing her 2020 reelection bid, maybe it'd be more like Lean R (definitely closer to Lean than Safe), and if she was elected in 2016 and we were discussing her 2018 reelection, it would probably be Tossup or maybe, with the right candidate, even Tilt D or so.
Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,236
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2022, 11:06:39 AM »

Bumping this thread because I don't know if there's a dedicated CO-03 thread, but if this guy wins the Democratic primary, this seat is Safe Boebert and I will endorse her for re-election

Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2022, 11:10:31 AM »

I read the partial thread title 'Is Lauren Boebert at...' and thought 'not again'.

I don't expect her to be endangered, as her craziness has faded into the background (and is not necessarily a universal hindrance to her, certainly not enough to tank her in this environment).
Logged
iceman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 862
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2022, 11:18:42 AM »

has she actually done something for her constituents?
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2022, 11:30:35 AM »

Bumping this thread because I don't know if there's a dedicated CO-03 thread, but if this guy wins the Democratic primary, this seat is Safe Boebert and I will endorse her for re-election



Isn't this the man who released that disgusting ad involving human feces showering a town? And him stating that it symbolized what Boebert represented?
Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,236
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2022, 12:17:53 PM »

Bumping this thread because I don't know if there's a dedicated CO-03 thread, but if this guy wins the Democratic primary, this seat is Safe Boebert and I will endorse her for re-election



Isn't this the man who released that disgusting ad involving human feces showering a town? And him stating that it symbolized what Boebert represented?

Probably, yeah.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 11 queries.