ProgressiveModerate
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« on: March 17, 2022, 07:48:21 PM » |
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Most people have her district as likely or safe R, but I'll make a case as to why it could be more competitive, even in 2022.
Firstly, while her district voted for Trump, it was "only" Trump + 7 in 2020, and while the district swung very hard left between 2016 and 2020, it's hard to tell if it's actually shifting left overall.
Secondly, the turnout differentials in this seat, possibly one of the most extreme divides of Dems relying on "elites" in ski resort communities while Republicans rely on more rural working class areas like Mesa could make the seat shift less to the right than the nation as a whole in terms of electorate.
Third, in 2020, we did see some pretty significant underperformances by some notorious members of congress; most notably Omar who underperformed Biden by 24% against a nobody. While Boebert basically matched Trump's performance in 2020, it was before she really became the lightning rod she is now.
Fourth, the nature of this race should mean Dems have all the money they need to campaign, maybe too much to the point where it hurts them.
So even if we have an R + 5 national environment, and maybe an R + 12 electorate in this seat, it's certainly not impossible Boebert could underperform enough to lose, at least at face value?
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