Both Boebert and Cawthorn represent districts with extremely high Democratic floors but very low ceilings. CO-03 seems like an easier lift to me to be honest but I doubt that either is going to lose, especially when both the Ski Counties and Asheville are likely to nominate a candidate with zero appeal to the kind of voters who actually would need to be flipped.
Don't know Colorado too well, but in NC-11 the ideal candidate would probably need to be 1) deeply rooted in a community outside of Asheville, 2) obviously extremely culturally Southern, 3) moderate on a lot of hot-button issues, honestly to the point of being right-wing on guns, and 4) able to play the class warfare game to some extent and tap into resentment around the rising cost of living in a lot of mountain communities. Needless to say, all of these are major disadvantages in actually winning the primary since basically all of them rub the NC-11 Democratic primary electorate wrong, and that's probably a big issue in CO-03 too.
The last Dem to win this district was John Salazar, rancher and brother of former US Senator Ken Salazar. He cut an extremely moderate profile, was associated with conservative hispano culture, and had close ties to oil and gas. Someone like that would be ideal, however the oil and gas stuff is increasingly radioactive with Dem primary voters and could easily depress the vote too. Dems best bet is to just hammer Boebert as crazy until demographics make this seat winnable in a few years. It worked on Marilyn Musgraves in 2010, and will work fine here if they just bide their time.
