Why did Ford win VA in 1976?

[Sir Mohamed]

Why was Gerald Ford able to carry VA in 1976? Carter did extremely well in the South for obvious reasons, though he missed VA by around 22k votes. How did that come? Ford appealing to voters in the DC suburbs?

[TML]

The key to Ford's victory was his dominance of the DC & Richmond suburbs. Back in 1976, suburban areas were R strongholds. Those areas only started to shift D during the 1990s.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The key to Ford's victory was his dominance of the DC & Richmond suburbs. Back in 1976, suburban areas were R strongholds. Those areas only started to shift D during the 1990s.

Richmond's suburbs were unusually white-flighty even by the standards of the era; Goldwater got almost 70% in both Chesterfield and Henrico Counties, thus holding LBJ to a single-digit margin statewide. Ford still got over 65% in both, providing far more than his statewide raw vote margin between them.

[bayareabay]

That was a weird election in general. It was the only time NM voted for the loser of the popular vote.

[Calthrina950]

That was a weird election in general. It was the only time NM voted for the loser of the popular vote.

Carter was unpopular in the West, which had to do with his positions on issues such as water rights, as well as his evangelical Christianity, which was apparently a turnoff to voters in much of the region (such as in the Pacific Northwest). This also revealed itself in 1980, when Carter was crushed throughout the West by Reagan.

[lfromnj]

Yeah DC suburbs provided the tipping point but they weren't that Republican by vote margin once you factor in Alexandria and Arlington. Richmond suburbs were the clear GOP base.

[Mr. Smith]

That was a weird election in general. It was the only time NM voted for the loser of the popular vote.

Carter was unpopular in the West, which had to do with his positions on issues such as water rights, as well as his evangelical Christianity, which was apparently a turnoff to voters in much of the region (such as in the Pacific Northwest). This also revealed itself in 1980, when Carter was crushed throughout the West by Reagan.

Except for Oregon and Hawaii. The first was the closest state to Ford, and trended left in 1980. The last actually voted for Carter twice.

[Calthrina950]

That was a weird election in general. It was the only time NM voted for the loser of the popular vote.

Carter was unpopular in the West, which had to do with his positions on issues such as water rights, as well as his evangelical Christianity, which was apparently a turnoff to voters in much of the region (such as in the Pacific Northwest). This also revealed itself in 1980, when Carter was crushed throughout the West by Reagan.

Except for Oregon and Hawaii. The first was the closest state to Ford, and trended left in 1980. The last actually voted for Carter twice.

You are right. It's somewhat surprising that Carter held Hawaii in 1980, given that he only won it narrowly in 1976. But Hawaii typically has a pro-incumbent streak, and that must have benefited him that year. And Oregon would have gone for Carter had it not been for Eugene McCarthy. The state was to the left of the national average by that point.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah DC suburbs provided the tipping point but they weren't that Republican by vote margin once you factor in Alexandria and Arlington. Richmond suburbs were the clear GOP base.

Alexandria and Arlington both voted for Carter that year, went for Reagan by pluralities in 1980, and flipped to Mondale in 1984. They clearly tilted Democratic by that point, and Republican strength in Northern Virginia was already beginning to slip. You are certainly correct about the Richmond suburbs (Chesterfield and Henrico Counties). They are also the reason why Goldwater was within single digits in Virginia in 1964, as he crushed Johnson in those two counties.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

It was close. Other southern states were as well. A few factors that would put him over the top:

-High income for a southern state
-Not as white Evangelical as most southern states
-Transplants from up north voting Republican
-The Byrd machine created an ideologically conservative base in the northwestern part of the state that provided Republicans with a high floor