UT-SEN 2024: Romney retiring

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

He should've run in 2016 instead of Jeb. (My guess is that he would've thrown the nomination to Cruz rather than winning, but between him and Ted they could've boxed Trump out of the first four contests and polarized the race between the two of them.)

Anyway, this is a Utah primary and so we have to consider the possibility that the winner will be some random academic or staffer that no one has ever heard of (or even the possibility that the entire field will be random academics and staffers that no one has ever heard of), but the obvious immediate frontrunner is Sean Reyes, who has been known to have Senate ambitions for a while and was exploring challenging Romney in a primary.

Reyes is not the frontrunner. That would be Trent Staggs or Brad Wilson.

Stages barely has any name recognition while Reyes is polling first and is likely to get the Trump endorsement.

Well, Reyes is out so it’s all moot anyway.

How about they guy who made Sound of Freedom?

There is absolutely no source saying that Reyes is out. Wikipedia says so but provides n explanation as of why. Brad Wilson is weirdly moderate and will get pushed out by a moderate and a MAGA populist. He simply can’t carve a lane out. Reyes is the FrontRunner and has MAGA money and name recognition. Staggs has some influential endorsements already and could spoil Reyes in favor of John Curtis who is strongly considering running and would be by far the least bad.

I've been seeing a number of leaks from political insiders on Twitter today that Reyes has ruled out running.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...

Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...
Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

The Calvin Coolidge Project is a a rumor mill.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Any (slim) chance Dems or an Indpendent can pick this one up? In 2022 McMullin almost came within single digits of an incumbent, and with an open seat likely with a MAGA R candidate and Trump being a uniquely poor candidate for Utah I think its completely fair to put this as likely R for now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kudos to Romney's closing message here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xGRBb3sN64

We need more younger people in Congress

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any (slim) chance Dems or an Indpendent can pick this one up? In 2022 McMullin almost came within single digits of an incumbent, and with an open seat likely with a MAGA R candidate and Trump being a uniquely poor candidate for Utah I think its completely fair to put this as likely R for now.

Very very slim, but theoretically possible if there's the right dynamic. There's really 2 ways I could see this happening:

1. A McMullin type (I) with very a crazy R rightwing R, and a good year for Dems overall. This would be a very tough carry but might not be impossible with the right messaging.

2. Rs nominate someone crazy, a rightwing Independent run who consolidates a lot of Conservative moderates and mormons, and they Dem wins with a plurality. (Or simillarly, Rs nominate someone somewhat sane, Trump backs a 3rd party right-wing Independent, and Dems win a 3-way race with a plurality).

I'd still rate this seat on the weaker end of Safe R.

[Stuart98]

I know it won't happen, but fingers crossed that Jon Huntsman comes out of retirement and runs for this seat.

Jon Huntsman's a trumpist lapdog nowadays, his principles are far looser than Romney's.

[Vosem]

If he really believed Trump was unfit for office and a threat to our country, he would not have voted to implement his policies. He would not have parroted the same talking points about "socialism" because he knows full damn well that Democrats are not socialists. He would not have limited his actions to reactions if he actually wanted to stop Trump. He just did what was politically expedient and it still won him no respect from the majority of his constituency. He's useless. He went about business as usual in the most unusual Presidency ever.

I enjoy your posts, but this feels like another example of red avatars writing something like "Republicans do not believe in Republicanism". If you authentically think that those policies would be better for the country's citizens, then why shouldn't you vote for them? Romney, in the most unusual Presidency ever, decided to take his position as a legislator more seriously than most and judged policies and impeachment votes and whatnot on their merits.

Am I actually going to miss Mitt f***ing Romney?

I still stand by how I voted in 2012 and how much of a sell-out to the Tea Party Romney appeared to me as, but when push came to shove and he was tested as his party sank into insanity, he was a voice of reason...mostly. Again, this is still by midern GOP standards especially since his successor will likely be worse by default.

The Romney '08 campaign was a prefiguration of the Tea Party in lots of ways. Romney was -- and is -- an authentic believer in both religious 'social' conservatism (Romney has never endorsed the Obergefell decision or states legalizing gay marriage) and 'cultural' conservatism (he has also spent a career in politics, through to the present, fighting illegal immigration) and 'fiscal' conservatism (see his 2008/2012 campaigns for examples of this, and for that matter his 1994 race; the 2002 one is the outlier here where he moderated to win).

Romney did not 'sell out' to the Tea Party. His entire political career embodied Tea Party ideas (yes, including the Trump-era parts) -- and I say this approvingly. He did not embrace a particular cultural presentation, but that was never so intimately tied with the Tea Party in any case.

I know it won't happen, but fingers crossed that Jon Huntsman comes out of retirement and runs for this seat.

Jon Huntsman's a trumpist lapdog nowadays, his principles are far looser than Romney's.

Huntsman was a primary-era Trump endorser! It's strongly underrated the extent to which the Utah establishment overlaps with the Nevada/Arizona insurgencies, and has to fight a more moderate electorate. It's a very weird state and particularly in the Trump period it has had very strange dynamics.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...
Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

The Calvin Coolidge Project is a a rumor mill.

I've been hearing rumors the person he's talking about is Tim Ballard lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...
Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

The Calvin Coolidge Project is a a rumor mill.

I've been hearing rumors the person he's talking about is Tim Ballard lol

An attorney general deferring to a controversial anti-child trafficking advocate? The writers truly have jumped the shark.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ballard would be a pretty strong candidate barring something heretofore unknown. I don't see why an activist is a bad fit for the Senate; Charles Sumner was basically "some activist lawyer" before his election.

And really I don't use ever this word lightly, especially when it comes to celebrities or politicians (of which Ballard is already both, in light of the cleverly partisan way Sound of Freedom was marketed), but if half of what is claimed about Ballard is true, he is a genuine hero. It would be nice to have one of those around. Ballard is a serious advocate with expertise and experience working with Congress, not just some dude they made a movie about like J.D. Vance.

[Aurelius2]

Any (slim) chance Dems or an Indpendent can pick this one up? In 2022 McMullin almost came within single digits of an incumbent, and with an open seat likely with a MAGA R candidate and Trump being a uniquely poor candidate for Utah I think its completely fair to put this as likely R for now.

Very very slim, but theoretically possible if there's the right dynamic. There's really 2 ways I could see this happening:

1. A McMullin type (I) with very a crazy R rightwing R, and a good year for Dems overall. This would be a very tough carry but might not be impossible with the right messaging.

2. Rs nominate someone crazy, a rightwing Independent run who consolidates a lot of Conservative moderates and mormons, and they Dem wins with a plurality. (Or simillarly, Rs nominate someone somewhat sane, Trump backs a 3rd party right-wing Independent, and Dems win a 3-way race with a plurality).

I'd still rate this seat on the weaker end of Safe R.

The only sufficiently crazy Republican I can think of to cause this to happen is Phil Lyman, and he's (allegedly) running for Governor, not Senate.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hearing some rumblings that Tim Ballard is running. Could he be the instant frontrunner for the nomination if he runs?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hearing some rumblings that Tim Ballard is running. Could he be the instant frontrunner for the nomination if he runs?

Nope, not even a serious candidate

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Ballard would be a pretty strong candidate barring something heretofore unknown. I don't see why an activist is a bad fit for the Senate; Charles Sumner was basically "some activist lawyer" before his election.

And really I don't use ever this word lightly, especially when it comes to celebrities or politicians (of which Ballard is already both, in light of the cleverly partisan way Sound of Freedom was marketed), but if half of what is claimed about Ballard is true, he is a genuine hero. It would be nice to have one of those around. Ballard is a serious advocate with expertise and experience working with Congress, not just some dude they made a movie about like J.D. Vance.

Eh, his whole thing sounds too good to be true and he dabbles in conspiracy. It’s also worth noting that he was ousted as CEO of O.U.R after an “internal investigation. Under the spyglass of an election I think he would wither. Like in an interview with Jordan Petersen (that alone shows poor judgement) he;

claimed to have recently raided a West African baby factory, where children were sold for organ harvesting and Satanic ritual abuse

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...
Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

The Calvin Coolidge Project is a a rumor mill.

Confirmed by Reyes himself: he’s not running.

https://twitter.com/seanreyesut/status/1702070710288437658?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[Sir Mohamed]

Romney's age is a compelling reason to retire, although he I guess his desire to go through a primary fight was rather low and he decided to gracefully exit the political stage.

That said, it's for sure a net loss for the country and senate. Not that I'm a huge fan of him, he had a spine in some moments that mattered and was at least willing to talk to the other side and compromise where necessary. I don't see how some MAGA clown replacing him would be better for practical governance. So yup, I'm sad to see him go, although I can fully understand his motives. Each 2 years, the number of halfway sane GOP members in congress seems to decline.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074186179477967
https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074803304198397

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074186179477967
https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074803304198397

Romney is the only member of the Senate openly a member of a cult.

[TDAS04]

Romney should just stop identifying with that evil cult he’s belonged to his entire life. It’s time he just makes it official, and stop identifying as a Republican.

He still deserves credit as the only one of the cult’s members in Congress not to succumb to cult authority, at the first impeachment and trial, 2019-2020.

[Sir Mohamed]

Romney should just stop identifying with that evil cult he’s belonged to his entire life. It’s time he just makes it official, and stop identifying as a Republican.

He still deserves credit as the only one of the cult’s members in Congress not to succumb to cult authority, at the first impeachment and trial, 2019-2020.

Yup, though I believe he still has some hope it might get better in the not so distant future. But I don't see it to be frank.

[Pres Mike]

I have a soft spot for Romney. When I was a dumb 13 year old, I supported him for President.

(Mostly because he said he wanted to cut national debt and I thought debt was bad. It wasn't until after the election did I learn my family got food stamps. By 2016, I was a Bernie Sanders progressive.)

I appreciate his willingness to stand up to Trump. I think Romney loves America considering he almost was elected president. Hate to see a actual moderate retire. But in the same interview he said he thinks Biden should also retire, which makes me mad. He even told Joe Manchin not to run for president third party because that means a Trump re-election.

[Aurelius2]

https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074186179477967
https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074803304198397

Romney is the only member of the Senate openly a member of a cult.

Whatever you think of Mormonism, Mike Crapo and Mike Lee say hello. Please don't speak on things you clearly know nothing about.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Good riddance. His replacement will vote the same way on almost every issue. Mittens just pretended like there was nothing he could do to stop Trump, whereas his replacement will actively encourage Trump. So six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Uh, Romney literally voted to convict and remove Trump from office twice (the only Republican to do so). So, what are you talking about?

Yeah, waiting until a conviction is put to a vote and then voting for it knowing full well it's not going to pass is the only thing a US Senator can do to block an entire legislative agenda. Obviously he couldn't have put partisan politics to the side, taken a stand and said "I'm not going to enable this President in any way because I believe he is fundamentally corrupt" and effectively caucused with Democrats until Trump was out of office. He's retiring after one term anyway, so it's not like doing that would have been any more or less impactful on his decision to run for re-election.

If he really believed Trump was unfit for office and a threat to our country, he would not have voted to implement his policies. He would not have parroted the same talking points about "socialism" because he knows full damn well that Democrats are not socialists. He would not have limited his actions to reactions if he actually wanted to stop Trump. He just did what was politically expedient and it still won him no respect from the majority of his constituency. He's useless. He went about business as usual in the most unusual Presidency ever.

This is beyond absurd as you can think Trump’s policies were good while also thinking he should have been impeached .

Voting against policies you think would be good for the country is extremely idiotic and it’s laughable that many red avatars think because he didn’t do so , that makes him unprincipled

[MarkD]

What's the likelihood that one of Mitt's sons will run?