Why did Cordray lose in 2018? When will the Dems win the Ohio Governor's mansion again?

[WPADEM]

Cordray seemed to have a lot of things going for him during the 2018 governors election. Except Ohio's shift to the right and the Issue 1 debate in Ohio.  For those who don't know, Issue 1 was a ballot issue that Cordray supported that would decriminalize Opioid use in Ohio and focus on treatment through an amendment to the state constitution.  Ohio has been his pretty hard by the Opioid crisis, especially since the mid 2010's.

So why did Cordray lose? And when can the Democrats win the Ohio governors mansion against. I'd day in 2026 or 2030 in a GOP midterm. Maybe in a Six year itch year under a GOP President. Hard times for Ohio Dems.

[TML]

Brown had an incumbency advantage that Cordray didn't. Compared to Brown, Cordray underperformed in the "Rust Belt" - i.e. northeastern and north-central Ohio. In the current political climate, Democrats must perform reasonably well in this region in order to win statewide (Brown has been the only Democrat to accomplish this after 2012).

[Politician]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Believe or not 22, the Election is still nine months away and FL is turning purple Tim Ryan  and Beasley are our strongest recruits and when Trump isn't on the ballot Rs do worst in red state America

Just remember we won 45M votes in 2018/ not 80M votes in 2018 there is a fallacy going on the forum that Ds must win 90 M votes to duplicate at 2018 landslide we don't we only won. 46 M votes in 2018, but users don't check the NPVI they only go by Bad Approvals and Midterms bad for Biden

Just like all the Newbies post R Nut maps and never post on the Forum

[Xing]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

Basically this. Brown had a strong enough brand to survive, but Ohio had already become extremely hard for Democrats to win. As for when Democrats will win it again, probably not any time soon, unless they get a very lucky combination of an atrocious Republican candidate, a great Democratic candidate, and a blue wave.

[Person Man]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

Basically this. Brown had a strong enough brand to survive, but Ohio had already become extremely hard for Democrats to win. As for when Democrats will win it again, probably not any time soon, unless they get a very lucky combination of an atrocious Republican candidate, a great Democratic candidate, and a blue wave.

I mean, if the shoe were on the other foot, Youngkin still might have been able to win by a couple of thousands of votes.

Chances of that realistically happening, because there is only 1 race every 4 years, are lower than Democrats eventually improving with voters like the ones that lives in Ohio.  

For example, I see a matchup like what happened in 2017 Alabama, 2021 in Virginia or even in 2014 Colorado to be like 10-20:1. That means, if coalitions were held constant, there would be about a 50-50 chance that a Democrat would be governor of Ohio within our lifetime.

On the other hand, there are three possible scenarios.

1) Democrats are able to do better in the "New South" and the less Evangelical parts of the suburban and rural west and Ohio becomes another place like Indiana or West Virginia where Democrats generally win without contesting them. If this happens, yeah. The next Democratic Governor will be 50 years from now.

2) Democrat-friendly trends either slowdown or revert to the point that Democrats need to do better in the rust belt no matter what. This is divided into 2 scenarios-

a) Democrats find strong third-way candidates that can rebuild something that looks like the pre-2014 map, the less they have to change their policies to do this, the easier it is (for example giving up entirely on Gay Rights, Civil Rights, Women's Right, or large-scale Healthcare Reform entirely rather than just moderating on them would lose fewer votes to get more votes). In this scenario, we could see a Democrat winning there during a Republican 6-year or 10-year  itch in the 2030s.

b) The Democrats never win Ohio again because either free elections are eventually cancelled or the Democratic Party goes extinct because it runs out of votes to replace the ones its losing.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

Basically this. Brown had a strong enough brand to survive, but Ohio had already become extremely hard for Democrats to win. As for when Democrats will win it again, probably not any time soon, unless they get a very lucky combination of an atrocious Republican candidate, a great Democratic candidate, and a blue wave.

Yup, not much to add. DeWine also had a strong brand in OH politics, having served in several different roles for a number of decades.

While OH was winnable for Dem presidential candidates until 2012, the state had a strong R-lean in statewide races for many years. Dems only controled the Gov. Mansion for 4 years since 1991, and that was after the 2006 following a GOP gov with single digit approvals.

[Person Man]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

Basically this. Brown had a strong enough brand to survive, but Ohio had already become extremely hard for Democrats to win. As for when Democrats will win it again, probably not any time soon, unless they get a very lucky combination of an atrocious Republican candidate, a great Democratic candidate, and a blue wave.

Yup, not much to add. DeWine also had a strong brand in OH politics, having served in several different roles for a number of decades.

While OH was winnable for Dem presidential candidates until 2012, the state had a strong R-lean in statewide races for many years. Dems only controled the Gov. Mansion for 4 years since 1991, and that was after the 2006 following a GOP gov with single digit approvals.

So Ohio and Florida are more or less in the same boat? And perhaps have been since 1980.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

Basically this. Brown had a strong enough brand to survive, but Ohio had already become extremely hard for Democrats to win. As for when Democrats will win it again, probably not any time soon, unless they get a very lucky combination of an atrocious Republican candidate, a great Democratic candidate, and a blue wave.

Yup, not much to add. DeWine also had a strong brand in OH politics, having served in several different roles for a number of decades.

While OH was winnable for Dem presidential candidates until 2012, the state had a strong R-lean in statewide races for many years. Dems only controled the Gov. Mansion for 4 years since 1991, and that was after the 2006 following a GOP gov with single digit approvals.

So Ohio and Florida are more or less in the same boat? And perhaps have been since 1980.

Except that most FL-gov races were more winnable than OH. Cordray lost by 4 pts, Gillum by less than 1 pt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cordray lost because he was a Democrat running in a red state against a non-controversial Republican.

Basically this. Brown had a strong enough brand to survive, but Ohio had already become extremely hard for Democrats to win. As for when Democrats will win it again, probably not any time soon, unless they get a very lucky combination of an atrocious Republican candidate, a great Democratic candidate, and a blue wave.

Yup, not much to add. DeWine also had a strong brand in OH politics, having served in several different roles for a number of decades.

While OH was winnable for Dem presidential candidates until 2012, the state had a strong R-lean in statewide races for many years. Dems only controled the Gov. Mansion for 4 years since 1991, and that was after the 2006 following a GOP gov with single digit approvals.

So Ohio and Florida are more or less in the same boat? And perhaps have been since 1980.

Except that most FL-gov races were more winnable than OH. Cordray lost by 4 pts, Gillum by less than 1 pt.

GAETZ IS LOSING THAT POLL THST SHOWED DESANTIS LOSING IS LEGITIMATELY, DO YOU KNOW WHY, ITS A FALLACIOUS ARGUMENT THAT WE NEED 90M votes to win a Landslide we won 45M votes on 2018, and we won a Landslide


Do you know why that happened Rs UNDERPERFORMED in Red State when Trump, he isn't on the ballot that's why GAETZ is losing
It's a 303/235 map with wave insurance for the H.

Don't gone me the argument that Biden is a 39% Approval showed Trump at 43, in 2020 the same Civiqu polls and Trump overperformed we need to see all the state by state polls but they only poll Latino states

We still have NINE MNTHS AND RYAN, Beasley isnt dropping out, Strickland didn't drop out but Act blue refused any donations to hi after Scalia death was good for Americans when Strickland said that

[lfromnj]

Note every Ohio Democrat lost by 3-5 points other than Sherrod Brown in 2018.

[Tekken_Guy]

Note every Ohio Democrat lost by 3-5 points other than Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Sprague (the Treasurer) actually won by over 6 points, so he overperformed a bit compared to the others.

Though notably there was some regional advantages that some of the candidates had. Kathleen Clyde eked out a win in her home Portage County while all the other non-Brown Democrats lost it. Dave Yost vastly overperformed in the northern Columbus ‘burbs and Delaware County.

[lfromnj]

Note every Ohio Democrat lost by 3-5 points other than Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Sprague (the Treasurer) actually won by over 6 points, so he overperformed a bit compared to the others.

Though notably there was some regional advantages that some of the candidates had. Kathleen Clyde eked out a win in her home Portage County while all the other non-Brown Democrats lost it. Dave Yost vastly overperformed in the northern Columbus ‘burbs and Delaware County.

Yeah of course . Zach space also did good in his old Appalachian district. Overall its actually quite similar to VA 2021 except in reverse.

[Schiff for Senate]

Brown had an incumbency advantage that Cordray didn't. Compared to Brown, Cordray underperformed in the "Rust Belt" - i.e. northeastern and north-central Ohio. In the current political climate, Democrats must perform reasonably well in this region in order to win statewide (Brown has been the only Democrat to accomplish this after 2012).

To add to specific reasons why Cordray ran so much behind Brown, I want to add that Mike DeWine is a fairly popular (or at least, he was before he angered the rabid right flank of the base with his sanity around COVID19) political staple and has crossover support, winning a lot of moderates

[Politician]

Brown had an incumbency advantage that Cordray didn't. Compared to Brown, Cordray underperformed in the "Rust Belt" - i.e. northeastern and north-central Ohio. In the current political climate, Democrats must perform reasonably well in this region in order to win statewide (Brown has been the only Democrat to accomplish this after 2012).

To add to specific reasons why Cordray ran so much behind Brown, I want to add that Mike DeWine is a fairly popular (or at least, he was before he angered the normal flank of the base with his insanity around COVID19) political staple and has crossover support, winning a lot of moderates

[Mr. Smith]

Because his opponent was DeWine, he already lost once to him [and not at a debatable point either], why would that change?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't think Dems will win the Ohio Governor's mansion again until another political realignment, aside from if there's a 2006-level landslide or a huge scandal for the R nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think Dems will win the Ohio Governor's mansion again until another political realignment, aside from if there's a 2006-level landslide or a huge scandal for the R nominee.

Lol there hasn't been 1  OH SEN POLL DON'T COUNT CHICKENS AND IF JON CRANY WINS PRIMARY HE IS A BLUE DOG , USERS ALWAYS WANT TO PREEMPT THE ELECTION JUST BECAUSE OF APPROVALS IT'S PREDICT THAT THERE IS GONNA BE 130 m got Turnout which D's won 80 M with VBM

There is zero chance of an R NUT MAO WITH DS TIED IN AZ GIV RAVE ABD EVERS AT 51 APPROVALS

TRUMP WON THE SENATE AT 40/57 HE Never WAS 50

[Rjjr77]

Brown had an incumbency advantage that Cordray didn't. Compared to Brown, Cordray underperformed in the "Rust Belt" - i.e. northeastern and north-central Ohio. In the current political climate, Democrats must perform reasonably well in this region in order to win statewide (Brown has been the only Democrat to accomplish this after 2012).

Brown also spent 30 million dollars against a not great candidate and underperformed his polling


Cordray lost because Ohio has long been a right leaning state in off years, and has moved further right. The democratic party is in shambles anywhere not in a city, and despite some movement from the suburban voter to the left, it didnt move as much in Ohio as it did everywhere else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio isn't moving to the right it was always an R based battlefield but it's not IND because all the Blks in IND live in Gary IN near Chicago with spurts in Indianapolis, in OH is CVG, CLEV and Columbus, Bidens Approvals are going up anyways, it's 12 percent Blk, it's not a tipping pt but it's a swing state

If you think Ryan is gonna drop out or lose this race by 20 it's still a battlefield state