Alberta election 2023

[DistingFlyer]

Just getting this in under the wire (am at sea at the moment, and will be going on watch until an hour after the polls close):

Tories: 47 MLAs (49%)
New Democrats: 40 MLAs (46%)

In spite of the polls being pretty consistent over the last few weeks I'm still a little uncertain given how off they were last time, when the Tories' lead ended up not only exceeding the aggregate numbers but every single poll released during the campaign (and not by a small amount either). I doubt there'll be a big last-minute swing here, as most people seem to have made their minds up about both parties (and leaders) some time ago.

Will therefore give a margin of error of +/- 4 MLAs for the above prediction.

[DistingFlyer]

As with 2019, the Tories notably outperformed their polls without their majority increasing by a corresponding amount:

Last time their lead was more than double the aggregate polling (and appreciably in excess of any single poll to boot) but their seat numbers ended up at 63 over the 56 or so the poll aggregates forecast.

This time their lead appreciably exceeded the aggregate polls (though a couple individual polls matched it) but their seat numbers finished within the range forecast by those same aggregates.

[DistingFlyer]

As with 2019, the Tories notably outperformed their polls without their majority increasing by a corresponding amount:

Last time their lead was more than double the aggregate polling (and appreciably in excess of any single poll to boot) but their seat numbers ended up at 63 over the 56 or so the poll aggregates forecast.

This time their lead appreciably exceeded the aggregate polls (though a couple individual polls matched it) but their seat numbers finished within the range forecast by those same aggregates.

Looking at the change in votes vs. change in MLAs, the NDP gained seven more members than they would have had the swing been uniform provincewide:



The bigger-than-average Calgary swing was clearly a big help.

[DistingFlyer]

With the official counts completed, have updated the pdf file to include the 2023 results (https://drive.google.com/file/d/190e1ieCLhZhtOmR2NA9sp69hg_QjD84R/view?usp=drive_link)

Looking at Calgary, Edmonton & the rest of the province, here's how things break down:

Calgary
NDP - 49.3% (+15%), 14 MLAs (+11)
UCP - 48.3% (-5%), 12 MLAs (-11)
Swing - 10.1% NDP

Edmonton
NDP - 62.9% (+10%), 20 MLAs (+1)
UCP - 34.5% (-0%) (-1 MLA)
Swing - 5.2% NDP

Remainder
UCP - 63.5% (-1%), 37 MLAs (-2)
NDP - 32.3% (+9%), 4 MLAs (+2)
Swing - 5.2% NDP


As I illustrated earlier, had there been a uniform province-wide swing of 6.8% last week the Tories would have won a majority of 25; the big swing in Calgary (which contained a disproportionate number of Tory marginals) was mostly responsible for their majority being cut to only 11 - had the entire province swung the same way as that city, the Tory majority would have been nine, and their province-wide popular vote margin would have been only 2% instead of 8.6%.

This also gives the NDP an advantage next time, as they only need a 2.5% swing to elect their 44th MLA - that is, they can lose the popular vote by 3.7% and still win power. (Five of the six most vulnerable Tory ridings that they need to pick up are in Calgary, while the sixth is in Lethbridge, so this is quite doable for them.)

[DistingFlyer]

Has anyone tallied up the popular vote in Calgary and Edmonton?

Calgary
NDP - 49.3% (+15.3%), 14 MLAs (+11)
UCP - 48.3% (–4.9%), 12 MLAs (–11)

Edmonton
NDP - 62.9% (+10.3%), 20 MLAs (+1)
UCP - 34.5% (–0.2%) (–1 MLA)

Remainder
UCP - 63.5% (–1.2%), 37 MLAs (–2)
NDP - 32.3% (+9.1%), 4 MLAs (+2)

[DistingFlyer]

Thank you, I think you mean UCP though.

Well that's embarrassing (force of habit, I guess) - have fixed. Thank you.