Alberta election 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

Wow, the candidate lists show how badly Alberta's centrist parties have withered away...

The Alberta NDP is the centrist party.

[Benjamin Frank]

Conflicting polls. The Mainstreet poll conducted at the same time (May 9-12) using IVR, has the UCP ahead 50-44%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First Abacus poll conducted after the campaign began shows sizable lead for NDP. They're racking up a lot of support in Edmonton, obviously, but they're leading in Calgary by 6% and within 8 points of the UCP in the rest of Alberta as well.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1657404772490592256?s=20

https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/

This feels like it's close to 2015 numbers, no?

[adma]

This feels like it's close to 2015 numbers, no?

Actually, if one sees the '15 race as the NDP vs the combined PC/Wildrose right, it *reverses* those numbers (that is, the NDP got just under 41%, and PC/Wildrose got 52%)

[VPH]

Wow, the candidate lists show how badly Alberta's centrist parties have withered away...

The Alberta NDP is the centrist party.

Well yeah they definitely squeezed out the ALP and AP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

First Abacus poll conducted after the campaign began shows sizable lead for NDP. They're racking up a lot of support in Edmonton, obviously, but they're leading in Calgary by 6% and within 8 points of the UCP in the rest of Alberta as well.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1657404772490592256?s=20
https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/

Oh my. This might be a *bit* of an outlier, but anything near that would be an easy NDP win.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

First Abacus poll conducted after the campaign began shows sizable lead for NDP. They're racking up a lot of support in Edmonton, obviously, but they're leading in Calgary by 6% and within 8 points of the UCP in the rest of Alberta as well.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1657404772490592256?s=20
https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/

Conflicting polls. The Mainstreet poll conducted at the same time (May 9-12) using IVR, has the UCP ahead 50-44%

IVR tends to pick up more low propensity voters and I'd imagine Alberta is one province where the NDP have relatively high turnout voters compared with the Conservatives, especially for someone like Danielle Smith.

[Hatman 🍁]

IVR vs Online mode effect for sure. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Sign watch:

In Cardston I saw no NDP signs (as one would expect) but the signs I did see were split between the government candidate and independent (formerly with the Wildrose Independence Party) Angela Tabak. I don't know if she's Mormon, which would explain things, but anyway I was surprised by how many signs she had. This area obviously has a history of supporting right-of-mainstream candidates, so maybe she'll do well.

In Fort MacLeod and environs I saw a surprising number of signs for NDP (maybe star) candidate Kevin Van Tighem. It doesn't seem plausible that he could win, but that area did elect the first NDP MLA in Alberta history. I know there has been some wacky stuff with the UCP nomination there being taken over by the far right, but most of the signs I saw were for the UCP candidate.

I wish I could have had the time to go into Lethbridge and see what things looked like there, but alas.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/BagelPolling/status/1657929724448915456?s=20

Basically summarizes how I feel about her lol

[Njall]

We got more conflicting polls today. Janet Brown, probably the best pollster in Alberta, has the UCP up 51-40 provincewide and 51-39 in Calgary. Brown says that those numbers in her seat model produces 56 seats for the UCP and 31 for the NDP, which would be a shift of just 7 seats from the last election.

Meanwhile, Counsel Public Affairs has the NDP up 36-29 provincewide and 38-28 in Calgary, with (I think) higher undecided numbers than in other polls.

Also, Mainstreet’s latest numbers have the UCP up 49.4-44.8, and Quito Maggi claims that the regional trends are favouring the UCP.

Also, in non-polling news, the UCP candidate in Lacombe-Ponoka has had a recording emerge of her at a forum last fall going on a transphobic tirade, basically saying the same stuff you hear from hard-right Americans who have bought into conspiracy theories about sex Ed in school teaching kids to think that they’re transgender, etc. A decade ago something like this would’ve been as bad as the lake of fire comment from the 2012 election, but who know how it plays out now. The UCP had previously dropped the former candidate in Lethbridge-West over similar comments, but now the candidate nomination deadline is passed and they seem to be sticking with this one.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Woah, now Janet Brown has the UCP up by 11? Oh boy.

[Harlow]

The polling for this election is such a mess lol. I have never heard of "Counsel"

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1658681373291429889?s=20

[Benjamin Frank]

The polling for this election is such a mess lol. I have never heard of "Counsel"

Counsel Public Affairs
https://counselpa.com/

They are a leading strategic communications and lobbying firm and apparently do polling as well.

https://twitter.com/Counselpa/status/1658625899376398339?cxt=HHwWhsC-uffdz4QuAAA...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sign watch:

In Cardston I saw no NDP signs (as one would expect) but the signs I did see were split between the government candidate and independent (formerly with the Wildrose Independence Party) Angela Tabak. I don't know if she's Mormon, which would explain things, but anyway I was surprised by how many signs she had. This area obviously has a history of supporting right-of-mainstream candidates, so maybe she'll do well.

In Fort MacLeod and environs I saw a surprising number of signs for NDP (maybe star) candidate Kevin Van Tighem. It doesn't seem plausible that he could win, but that area did elect the first NDP MLA in Alberta history. I know there has been some wacky stuff with the UCP nomination there being taken over by the far right, but most of the signs I saw were for the UCP candidate.

I wish I could have had the time to go into Lethbridge and see what things looked like there, but alas.

Thanks for keeping us *posted*.

[adma]

Sounds like Take Back Alberta is prepared to go the full Arizona.

https://pressprogress.ca/take-back-alberta-leaders-are-training-scrutineers-to-infiltrate-campaigns-and-act-as-security-on-voting-day/?fbclid=IwAR07S27p-GeitV5xsmc5JOXMMBdgYKrAN-6ErwceHcoZ-WvGEmZNZkDBYvg

[Benjamin Frank]

Sounds like Take Back Alberta is prepared to go the full Arizona.

https://pressprogress.ca/take-back-alberta-leaders-are-training-scrutineers-to-infiltrate-campaigns-and-act-as-security-on-voting-day/?fbclid=IwAR07S27p-GeitV5xsmc5JOXMMBdgYKrAN-6ErwceHcoZ-WvGEmZNZkDBYvg

From the article:
“One of the things we’re looking to do is make sure the number of ballots in the boxes matches the number of people that came through,” Pedersen explained in a video posted on Facebook to promote the webinar.

Maybe somebody should tell them that the vote counters at the polling station can't leave until the numbers match up. Not only the ballots cast with the number of people who came to vote, but also the total ballots cast with the vote count.

To be sure, I'm not sure there is always a list to record the number of people who came in to vote, but the poll clerk has to reconcile the number of ballots used to the number of ballots cast.  If these 'scrutiners' try to keep a click count, they'll likely mess up because there are always people going in and out who don't vote, like other scrutineers and people who want to see if they're eligible to vote. This is something the election workers had better be aware off.

This is mindless stupidity.

It started off that most anti vaxxers were on the left and the right especially ridiculed them, but now the right has not only joined in but taken it to an absolute.

It's the same thing with voting machines. These right wingers are absolutist in being unhinged.

Of course, if these 'scrutineers' harrass legitimate voters, they will likely be told to leave, and I'm sure they'll then go on about how it's either a 'conspiracy' or how 'their rights' have been violated.

[Njall]

Big polling dump today! All figures are among decided and leaning voters:

Ipsos (field dates May 10-13)

Provincewide:
UCP: 48%
NDP: 45%

Calgary:
UCP: 48%
NDP: 44%

Edmonton:
NDP: 61%
UCP: 33%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 64%
NDP: 30%


Angus Reid (field dates May 12-16)

Provincewide:
UCP: 51%
NDP: 43%

Calgary:
NDP: 49%
UCP: 46%

Edmonton:
NDP: 56%
UCP: 38%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 64%
NDP: 31%


Mainstreet (field dates May 13-16)

Provincewide:
UCP: 49%
NDP: 45%


Abacus (field dates May 15-17)

Provincewide:
NDP: 49%
UCP: 46%

Calgary:
UCP: 51%
NDP: 45%

Edmonton:
NDP: 66%
UCP: 27%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 56%
NDP: 39%

[Benjamin Frank]

Big polling dump today! All figures are among decided and leaning voters:

Ipsos (field dates May 10-13)

Provincewide:
UCP: 48%
NDP: 45%

Calgary:
UCP: 48%
NDP: 44%

Edmonton:
NDP: 61%
UCP: 33%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 64%
NDP: 30%


Angus Reid (field dates May 12-16)

Provincewide:
UCP: 51%
NDP: 43%

Calgary:
NDP: 49%
UCP: 46%

Edmonton:
NDP: 56%
UCP: 38%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 64%
NDP: 31%


Mainstreet (field dates May 13-16)

Provincewide:
UCP: 49%
NDP: 45%


Abacus (field dates May 15-17)

Provincewide:
NDP: 49%
UCP: 46%

Calgary:
UCP: 51%
NDP: 45%

Edmonton:
NDP: 66%
UCP: 27%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 56%
NDP: 39%

I wonder if all these polling firms are using the same definition of 'Calgary' and 'Edmonton.' Some polling firms just use the city proper (or, I think Edmonton and St. Albert as 'Edmonton.') While others use the Edmonton and Calgary CMA. That can make a fair size difference especially for Calgary where the suburban and exurban areas, though not that many ridings, are heavily Conservative, except for Banff, if that's included in the CMA.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Calgary CMA definitely does not include Banff. It includes Airdire, Chestermere and Cochrane.

[Benjamin Frank]

The Calgary CMA definitely does not include Banff. It includes Airdire, Chestermere and Cochrane.

The wiki election page counts it as part of the 'Calgary Suburbs'

I would have thought the Calgary CMA would also have included Okotoks (Highwood.)

[Njall]

The Calgary CMA definitely does not include Banff. It includes Airdire, Chestermere and Cochrane.

The wiki election page counts it as part of the 'Calgary Suburbs'

I would have thought the Calgary CMA would also have included Okotoks (Highwood.)

Nope, by Stats Canada’s definition, the Calgary CMA is Calgary proper, plus Rocky View County and the municipalities and First Nations reserves surrounded by Rocky View Country (Airdrie, Chestermere, Cochrane, etc.). The only parts of Banff-Kananaskis actually in the CMA are the wealthy exurban communities of Springbank and Elbow Valley in Rocky View County, plus the Tsuu T’ina reserve.

The Edmonton CMA actually has much more rural area because it contains all of Leduc County, Parkland County, Strathcona County, and Sturgeon County.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Tonight's debate will be crucial.

Notley is more personally popular (really, less disliked, neither of them are particularly popular) than Smith, and leader's debates put the spotlight on the leaders. Smith has chronic foot-mouth disease, but I wouldn't write her off because of that. She's not a bad debater at all, her gaffes usually come in more candid settings. But there will undoubtedly be uncomfortable questions regarding things like TBA that Smith has been trying to avoid on the campaign trail. Plus, Notley is the better debater and presents much better in front of a camera.

She'll need it though. NDP's not leading as many polls anymore, and knowing what we know about polling in Alberta, UCP is probably being underestimated. A knockout punch tonight might be just enough to deliver just enough votes in Calgary, but as things stand, I think the UCP is in a stronger position than they were going into the campaign. Amazingly so, considering how shaky the campaign has been for them.

[Benjamin Frank]

The Calgary CMA definitely does not include Banff. It includes Airdire, Chestermere and Cochrane.

The wiki election page counts it as part of the 'Calgary Suburbs'

I would have thought the Calgary CMA would also have included Okotoks (Highwood.)

Nope, by Stats Canada’s definition, the Calgary CMA is Calgary proper, plus Rocky View County and the municipalities and First Nations reserves surrounded by Rocky View Country (Airdrie, Chestermere, Cochrane, etc.). The only parts of Banff-Kananaskis actually in the CMA are the wealthy exurban communities of Springbank and Elbow Valley in Rocky View County, plus the Tsuu T’ina reserve.

The Edmonton CMA actually has much more rural area because it contains all of Leduc County, Parkland County, Strathcona County, and Sturgeon County.

You still didn't answer the question on the polls though,

Are 'Calgary' and 'Edmonton' in these polls the city proper, or are they the CMAs?

[DL]

Mainstreet's tracker today has it down to a margin or 1.7%

UCP 48%
NDP 46.3

and the NDP leads in Calgary