Alberta election 2023

[Njall]

In the midst of the election, the provincial government has had to declare a state of emergency due to wildfires burning out of control in parts of central and northern Alberta, with at least 25,000 people having been ordered to evacuate so far, including the entire towns of Drayton Valley and Edson. Candidates from both the UCP and NDP in the even ridings affected so far have suspended their campaigns. Most of the ridings are safe UCP rural seats, but the wildfires have also impacted the ridings of Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville and Lesser Slave Lake, which are expected to be competitive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For some reason, I was not aware that Alberta is in a middle of an election.
I guess time flies...

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Alberta 2023 vote compass is out!

Greens 81%
Alberta Party 81%
Liberals 73%
NDP 63%
UCP 33%
Wildrose 15%

Lol, I’d vote NDP provincially in Alberta and federally nationwide (barring a Lib-Tory swing seat)

I do remember being sad about the Liberals and the Alberta Party not getting seats the last election, but whatever. Here’s to Rachel Notley, the once and (hopefully) future Premier.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

God, I'm really hating this election. I hate the use of "American-style" anything in the context of Canadian politics because its usually a huge oversimplification used to advance a political agenda. But this really is an American-style election. Very polarized between two parties with no signs of a break in the deadlock, with partisans mainly resorting to attacks to get their base angry enough to vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God, I'm really hating this election. I hate the use of "American-style" anything in the context of Canadian politics because its usually a huge oversimplification used to advance a political agenda. But this really is an American-style election. Very polarized between two parties with no signs of a break in the deadlock, with partisans mainly resorting to attacks to get their base angry enough to vote.

Well, Alberta was settled by Americans.

[adma]

God, I'm really hating this election. I hate the use of "American-style" anything in the context of Canadian politics because its usually a huge oversimplification used to advance a political agenda. But this really is an American-style election. Very polarized between two parties with no signs of a break in the deadlock, with partisans mainly resorting to attacks to get their base angry enough to vote.

Well, Alberta was settled by Americans.

And especially w/this current Covid/Nazi business, it does seem front-loaded in the Danielle Smith end, which may explain the "American-style" impression.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-elections-2023-calgary-edmonton-ridings-1.6833695
The key ridings they postulate:
Calgary-Elbow
Calgary-Acadia
Calgary-North West
Calgary-Cross
Lethbridge-East and Lethbridge-West
Banff-Kananaskis
Edmonton-South West
Morinville-St. Albert
Edmonton-Sherwood Park
Sherwood Park
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
Lesser Slave Lake

[Hatman 🍁]

Key ridings? And only 12 of them? The NDP needs to pick up at least 20 to win!

Why not just list the 20 ridings they need to pick up? Here were the 20 closest UCP-won ridings from the last election:

Calgary-Falconridge: 0.6% (this isn't even on the CBC list!)
Calgary-Currie: 0.8% (neither is this one)
Calgary-Varsity: 2.7% (nor this one!)
Edmonton-South West: 3.1%
Sherwood Park: 5.4%
Calgary-Klein: 7.7%
Banff-Kananaskis: 9.3%
Lethbridge-East: 13.7%
Calgary-North East: 13.7%
Morinville-St. Albert: 16.9%
Calgary-Cross: 16.9%
Calgary-Beddington: 17.4%
Calgary-East: 17.5%
Calgary-Edgemont: 18.8%
Calgary-Acadia: 19.7%
Strathcona-Sherwood Park: 20.2%
Calgary-Elbow: 20.9%
Lesser Slave Lake: 21.6%
Calgary-Bow: 21.7%
Calgary-Glenmore: 23.6%

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Key ridings? And only 12 of them? The NDP needs to pick up at least 20 to win!

Why not just list the 20 ridings they need to pick up? Here were the 20 closest UCP-won ridings from the last election:

Calgary-Falconridge: 0.6% (this isn't even on the CBC list!)
Calgary-Currie: 0.8% (neither is this one)
Calgary-Varsity: 2.7% (nor this one!)
Edmonton-South West: 3.1%
Sherwood Park: 5.4%
Calgary-Klein: 7.7%
Banff-Kananaskis: 9.3%
Lethbridge-East: 13.7%
Calgary-North East: 13.7%
Morinville-St. Albert: 16.9%
Calgary-Cross: 16.9%
Calgary-Beddington: 17.4%
Calgary-East: 17.5%
Calgary-Edgemont: 18.8%
Calgary-Acadia: 19.7%
Strathcona-Sherwood Park: 20.2%
Calgary-Elbow: 20.9%
Lesser Slave Lake: 21.6%
Calgary-Bow: 21.7%
Calgary-Glenmore: 23.6%

Well I think the assumption is that ridings like Falconridge, Currie and Varsity are very obviously going NDP, so not really "key ridings".

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's pretty staggering just how much ground the NDP has to make up from 2019. Polling averages suggest a 20%-ish positive swing for the NDP, and even with that swing, the NDP's hopes are on a knife's edge. Even with Danielle Smith doing her level best to help the NDP over the finish line, I'd still rather put my money on the UCP.

[adma]

It's pretty staggering just how much ground the NDP has to make up from 2019. Polling averages suggest a 20%-ish positive swing for the NDP, and even with that swing, the NDP's hopes are on a knife's edge. Even with Danielle Smith doing her level best to help the NDP over the finish line, I'd still rather put my money on the UCP.

Keep in mind that swings aren't uniform--and they'll probably be less marked in the Edmonton-area seats the NDP already holds.

Plus, who knows how many Lukaszuk-esque potential "Prentice/Notley" swing voters there are out there, willing to (under the present circumstance) prioritize sanity over ideology.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's pretty staggering just how much ground the NDP has to make up from 2019. Polling averages suggest a 20%-ish positive swing for the NDP, and even with that swing, the NDP's hopes are on a knife's edge. Even with Danielle Smith doing her level best to help the NDP over the finish line, I'd still rather put my money on the UCP.

Keep in mind that swings aren't uniform--and they'll probably be less marked in the Edmonton-area seats the NDP already holds.

Plus, who knows how many Lukaszuk-esque potential "Prentice/Notley" swing voters there are out there, willing to (under the present circumstance) prioritize sanity over ideology.

True, swings aren't uniform, and that's something the NDP really has going for themselves. The NDP will have a positive swing pretty much everywhere, but there's reason to believe that the swing will be most pronounced in Calgary, which is also where their path runs through.

As for the Lukaszuk thing, he's still the exception, even among moderate Tories from the old PC wing. No doubt many traditional Tories won't vote UCP this election, but many of them simply won't vote, or vote third party, rather than actually go NDP (especially considering that although Notley is quite moderate, NDP candidates are often pretty far to the left of the average Albertan). You might also see some silent UCP voters, conservatives who are too embarrassed by Smith to admit it, but aren't gonna break with their party. So there's a lot of things that play into it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Key ridings? And only 12 of them? The NDP needs to pick up at least 20 to win!

Why not just list the 20 ridings they need to pick up? Here were the 20 closest UCP-won ridings from the last election:

Calgary-Falconridge: 0.6% (this isn't even on the CBC list!)
Calgary-Currie: 0.8% (neither is this one)
Calgary-Varsity: 2.7% (nor this one!)
Edmonton-South West: 3.1%
Sherwood Park: 5.4%
Calgary-Klein: 7.7%
Banff-Kananaskis: 9.3%
Lethbridge-East: 13.7%
Calgary-North East: 13.7%
Morinville-St. Albert: 16.9%
Calgary-Cross: 16.9%
Calgary-Beddington: 17.4%
Calgary-East: 17.5%
Calgary-Edgemont: 18.8%
Calgary-Acadia: 19.7%
Strathcona-Sherwood Park: 20.2%
Calgary-Elbow: 20.9%
Lesser Slave Lake: 21.6%
Calgary-Bow: 21.7%
Calgary-Glenmore: 23.6%

Well I think the assumption is that ridings like Falconridge, Currie and Varsity are very obviously going NDP, so not really "key ridings".

Lethbridge-West is very obviously going to go NDP too, yet is on the CBC list.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's pretty staggering just how much ground the NDP has to make up from 2019. Polling averages suggest a 20%-ish positive swing for the NDP, and even with that swing, the NDP's hopes are on a knife's edge. Even with Danielle Smith doing her level best to help the NDP over the finish line, I'd still rather put my money on the UCP.

Keep in mind that swings aren't uniform--and they'll probably be less marked in the Edmonton-area seats the NDP already holds.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of big swings in Edmonton. Edmonton had larger swings toward the UCP in 2019 than Calgary, so there's a chance those voters go back to the NDP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's pretty staggering just how much ground the NDP has to make up from 2019. Polling averages suggest a 20%-ish positive swing for the NDP, and even with that swing, the NDP's hopes are on a knife's edge. Even with Danielle Smith doing her level best to help the NDP over the finish line, I'd still rather put my money on the UCP.

Keep in mind that swings aren't uniform--and they'll probably be less marked in the Edmonton-area seats the NDP already holds.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of big swings in Edmonton. Edmonton had larger swings toward the UCP in 2019 than Calgary, so there's a chance those voters go back to the NDP.

Oh yeah that's another reason why I think the UCP is still slightly favoured, despite everything. Edmonton isn't maxed out for the NDP yet, they could easily go back to 2015 levels (or better), only to pick up like 3-4 seats in the Edmonton CMA, because they already have most of the seats, and some Edmonton-area seats like Leduc--Beaumont are staying blue.

So that still leaves the NDP to pick up a ton of seats outside the Edmonton area. Banff-Kananaskis, Lethbridge East, maybe Lesser Slave Lake on a good day. That leaves them to pick up at least 13 seats in Calgary to get to a majority, possibly more. Not saying it can't be done, it's quite plausible. But it's not hard to imagine them falling short.

[Njall]

In other news, the pastor from that leaked phone call with Danielle Smith has registered a new Party called the Alberta Solidarity Movement with a slate of 49 candidates, including candidates in all 26 Calgary ridings.

[Logical]

These people are unironically repurposing the Solidarność logo. I am going to be the Joker.

[adma]

These people are unironically repurposing the Solidarność logo. I am going to be the Joker.

Well, that's Artur Pawlowski's leadership for you.  Basically, still pathologically "fighting the Communists" in his native Poland.  If it were anyone *but* Pawlowski leading the party, they wouldn't resort to this stunt...

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

So, how many piddly little right-wing parties are “seriously contesting” this election? Wiki shows this new Solidarity party, there’s the AB Independence Party, and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition. Enough of them and NDP might stand a chance.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Alberta 2023 vote compass is out!

My results:
GRN: 81%
AP: 74%
LIB: 72%
NDP: 62%
UCP: 32%
WIP: 22%

Probably would still be most likely to support the NDP unless AP, GRN, or LIB was more likely to win over UCP.

[adma]

So, how many piddly little right-wing parties are “seriously contesting” this election? Wiki shows this new Solidarity party, there’s the AB Independence Party, and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition. Enough of them and NDP might stand a chance.

Either that, or (as in Ontario last year) the sheer accumulation winds up benefiting the ruling right-wing party by making it look middle-of-the-road sane-and-sensible by comparison.

Much as in certain UK byelections where the right-wing fringers have way outnumbered those on the left, I wonder if this is a byproduct of a lookit-me have-your-say individualism that afflicts that side of the spectrum--almost like having a name on the ballot and a "position" works not unlike a Tinder account: the vain hopes of nutters, and sects of nutters, of having the electorate swipe right on them...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These people are unironically repurposing the Solidarność logo. I am going to be the Joker.

Well, that's Artur Pawlowski's leadership for you.  Basically, still pathologically "fighting the Communists" in his native Poland.  If it were anyone *but* Pawlowski leading the party, they wouldn't resort to this stunt...

The man's got determination and heaps of motivation, you've got to give him that.

[Hatman 🍁]

In the end, both far-right parties running "huge slates" fizzled out and didn't end up registering that many after all. With the deadline now passed:

Total candidates registered,
UCP: 87 (out of 87 ridings)
NDP: 87
Green: 41 (most since 2008)
SMA: 38 (Palowski's outfit)
AP: 19 (fewest since 2008)
WLC: 16 (Paul Hunman's outfit)
AIP: 14
Liberal: 13 (fewest since 1944 when they didn't run any candidates. Even fewer than the NEP days)

[Harlow]

First Abacus poll conducted after the campaign began shows sizable lead for NDP. They're racking up a lot of support in Edmonton, obviously, but they're leading in Calgary by 6% and within 8 points of the UCP in the rest of Alberta as well.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1657404772490592256?s=20

https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/

[VPH]

Wow, the candidate lists show how badly Alberta's centrist parties have withered away...