Alberta election 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

Absolutely wild events in Alberta with Premier Danielle Smith having tried to interfere in the administration of justice and then caught lying about it,and then trying to lie that she ever lied about it. She's suing the CBC for defamation but is also under an ethical investigation.

The problem, I think, is that because Danielle Smith is articulate and can stay on message, that she's regarded as intelligent. She isn't. She's a glib idiot, and she's completely incapable of governing.

Alberta pollster Janet Brown is regarded as the equivalent of Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, and this is her latest Calgary poll:

https://twitter.com/planetjanetyyc/status/1645811646504529921?cxt=HHwWgsDT0Z--jN...
Alberta polls have tended to favor the NDP (even in 2015 when the NDP won), so the numbers may need to be 'adjusted' by a few points.

This poll is based on 1,000 voters and the overall Calgary numbers are 47% NDP, 42% UCP, and Janet Brown projects an 18-8 NDP win in Calgary.

That would get the NDP close to winning with 20 seats in Edmonton. They would need 6 (to get to 44) in the Edmonton suburbs, the smaller cities and the 2 or 3 rural ridings they have support in.

[DL]

I kinda wish the south side of Calgary was split into "south central" and "deep south" instead of southeast and southwest...it would make more sense politically to see more of an inner 'burbs vs outer 'burbs split

[Harlow]

This is going to be a close election, I can feel it.

[Continential]

Current list of candidates. It really will be a two-horse race with the Alberta Party and Independence Parties presumably not fielding full slates.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1645588908531675136

[Hatman 🍁]

I kinda wish the south side of Calgary was split into "south central" and "deep south" instead of southeast and southwest...it would make more sense politically to see more of an inner 'burbs vs outer 'burbs split

I'm guessing since everyone knows what quadrant they live in, this was the easiest way to break down the data.

[Benjamin Frank]

Current list of candidates. It really will be a two-horse race with the Alberta Party and Independence Parties presumably not fielding full slates.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1645588908531675136

The NDP have two other candidates announced but not yet nominated.

[lilTommy]

Calgary Question
What makes the North of the city much more NDP/Progressive friendly then the South? Is it income? ethnic mix? is there a historical "working class" area of the city?

[Hatman 🍁]

The north end of the city is more diverse, and poorer.

[DL]

Calgary Question
What makes the North of the city much more NDP/Progressive friendly then the South? Is it income? ethnic mix? is there a historical "working class" area of the city?

Parts of north Calgary - especially the northeast are kind of similar to places like Brampton or Surrey - lots of new Canadians, lower income. I think the suburbs in the "deep south" are more upscale and more like Oakville or Newmarket.

[mileslunn]

South end not only more affluent, but many work in jobs connected with energy sector.  It is somewhat akin to Montgomery County, Texas which is one of the few suburban counties even under Trump that still votes over 70% GOP.  A lot there probably don't care for right wing populism or Smith's antics and would likely prefer someone like Toews.  But fear Notley will raise their taxes is big reason they will still vote UCP.

Northeast is predominately South Asian and more working class so more like Brampton, Mississauga or Surrey.  Even federally, Liberals won one seat here.  Northwest is really where the tipping point is and if NDP sweeps that, they likely win.  If UCP can hold some there probably narrowly squeaks by.

[mileslunn]

If Notley wins which seems quite plausible, probably even likely, wonder if this changes how conservative politicians elsewhere behave?  Recently it seems many especially in Western Canada and federally have adopted the base policy of pander to base and forget about swing voters.  If in a normally conservative province like Alberta this won't work, what makes them think it will federally?  I think this election could be more consequential in how conservatism goes nationally long term.  If Smith surprises us and wins big, likely cements more right wing populist dominance of conservative politics.  If a narrow win probably leads both sides to claim their way is correct way.  If loses, I don't know how they can continue to go on idea need to go further right to win. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If Notley wins which seems quite plausible, probably even likely, wonder if this changes how conservative politicians elsewhere behave?  Recently it seems many especially in Western Canada and federally have adopted the base policy of pander to base and forget about swing voters.  If in a normally conservative province like Alberta this won't work, what makes them think it will federally?  I think this election could be more consequential in how conservatism goes nationally long term.  If Smith surprises us and wins big, likely cements more right wing populist dominance of conservative politics.  If a narrow win probably leads both sides to claim their way is correct way.  If loses, I don't know how they can continue to go on idea need to go further right to win.  

I don't think Poilievre will change his approach much regardless of what happens in Alberta. Maybe he tones things down a little if Smith loses but not drastically. I don't think a UCP victory would change anything for the CPC's approach to the next election, because the UCP simply has to hold on to enough of the base to win. It's a fundamentally different challenge in Alberta vs federally.

For one, I think Poilievre is just better at the "post-Reform populist conservative" role than Smith is. He's a far better speaker, and while he's an attack dog, he seems to be getting better at picking the right fights and not getting bogged down the way Smith has been. So I don't think the CPC will feel the need to change anything massively, especially considering that polls have been kind to them recently and Poilievre seems to be making up the likeability gap (though he probably has similar "net ceiling" as Harper - able to energize more people than Harper ever was, but also turning off more people)

The second factor is that the UCP is the incumbent government with a formidable opponent. I take nothing away from Trudeau's formidability as a campaigner, but the LPC is slipping in popularity. A lot of what Canadian elections come down to is simply being in the right place at the right time.

[DL]

In a weird way, it could actually benefit Poilievre and hurt Trudeau is Notley and the NDP win in Alberta. Danielle Smith is a useful foil for the federal Liberals and she is also a constant embarrassment to the federal CPC brand with her constantly saying and doing crazy things that cause "brand contamination". If she eeks out a win she will likely be ridiculously unpopular by the time the next federal election rolls around and many people may be nervous about a Poilievre-Smith "axis of evil". In contrast if the NDP wins, all of that is off the table

[Benjamin Frank]

In a weird way, it could actually benefit Poilievre and hurt Trudeau is Notley and the NDP win in Alberta. Danielle Smith is a useful foil for the federal Liberals and she is also a constant embarrassment to the federal CPC brand with her constantly saying and doing crazy things that cause "brand contamination". If she eeks out a win she will likely be ridiculously unpopular by the time the next federal election rolls around and many people may be nervous about a Poilievre-Smith "axis of evil". In contrast if the NDP wins, all of that is off the table

There are those, and not just conspiracy theorist types who think the Federal Liberals agree with that and have been trying to help Danielle Smith, whether it was with the 'just transition' or pushing back against Smith's 'Sovereignty Act.'

I don't agree in that helping fossil fuel sector workers to retrain sounds like 'mom and apple pie stuff' and the phrase' just transition' apparently came from the civil service, and it seemed to me Trudeau simply slipped up in pushing back one time on the 'Sovereignty Act' rather than continuing their policy of ignoring it, but it's not hard to see the logic of this 'conspiracy theory.'

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In a weird way, it could actually benefit Poilievre and hurt Trudeau is Notley and the NDP win in Alberta. Danielle Smith is a useful foil for the federal Liberals and she is also a constant embarrassment to the federal CPC brand with her constantly saying and doing crazy things that cause "brand contamination". If she eeks out a win she will likely be ridiculously unpopular by the time the next federal election rolls around and many people may be nervous about a Poilievre-Smith "axis of evil". In contrast if the NDP wins, all of that is off the table

There are those, and not just conspiracy theorist types who think the Federal Liberals agree with that and have been trying to help Danielle Smith, whether it was with the 'just transition' or pushing back against Smith's 'Sovereignty Act.'

I don't agree in that helping fossil fuel sector workers to retrain sounds like 'mom and apple pie stuff' and the phrase' just transition' apparently came from the civil service, and it seemed to me Trudeau simply slipped up in pushing back one time on the 'Sovereignty Act' rather than continuing their policy of ignoring it, but it's not hard to see the logic of this 'conspiracy theory.'

Seems that, if I was Trudeau, the ideal scenario is a Smith win by 2 or 3 seats?

[Benjamin Frank]

In a weird way, it could actually benefit Poilievre and hurt Trudeau is Notley and the NDP win in Alberta. Danielle Smith is a useful foil for the federal Liberals and she is also a constant embarrassment to the federal CPC brand with her constantly saying and doing crazy things that cause "brand contamination". If she eeks out a win she will likely be ridiculously unpopular by the time the next federal election rolls around and many people may be nervous about a Poilievre-Smith "axis of evil". In contrast if the NDP wins, all of that is off the table

There are those, and not just conspiracy theorist types who think the Federal Liberals agree with that and have been trying to help Danielle Smith, whether it was with the 'just transition' or pushing back against Smith's 'Sovereignty Act.'

I don't agree in that helping fossil fuel sector workers to retrain sounds like 'mom and apple pie stuff' and the phrase' just transition' apparently came from the civil service, and it seemed to me Trudeau simply slipped up in pushing back one time on the 'Sovereignty Act' rather than continuing their policy of ignoring it, but it's not hard to see the logic of this 'conspiracy theory.'

Seems that, if I was Trudeau, the ideal scenario is a Smith win by 2 or 3 seats?

If Justin Trudeau is primarily concerned with winning the next election, I agree. If Justin Trudeau is primarily concerned with governing I think he wants an NDP win. Not that the NDP wouldn't also fight for 'Alberta Sovereignty' but they're much more aligned on the economy and social services.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. If the NDP wins Alberta, then it's quite possible the NDP loses Griesbach in the next election. Unless Notley somehow has a long honeymoon period.

[King of Kensington]

The south end/south side tend to be the more affluent side in the Prairie cities.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP candidate (soon to be nominated) in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo is Tanika Chiasson, a Suncor laboratory technician and former UNIFOR national representative and union organizer. It's kind of interesting that many workers in the oil patch are union members but that doesn't help the NDP even come close to winning there.

[Upper Canada Tory]

The NDP candidate (soon to be nominated) in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo is Tanika Chiasson, a Suncor laboratory technician and former UNIFOR national representative and union organizer. It's kind of interesting that many workers in the oil patch are union members but that doesn't help the NDP even come close to winning there.

The extent to which unionized workers support the NDP has always been somewhat overstated. An EKOS poll in 2015 found that 23% of unionized Canadians intended to vote NDP in the next federal election, compared 19% of Canadians who intended to vote NDP in general. The percentage of Liberal support was 33% amongst unionized Canadians and 32% amongst Canadians in general and the percentage of Conservative support was 26% amongst unionized Canadians and 34% of Canadians in general. It seems like union members are not a monolith and have views as diverse as any bloc of voters.
https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/polls-theres-a-lot-of-tory-blue-on-union-workers-collars-siekierski

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP candidate (soon to be nominated) in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo is Tanika Chiasson, a Suncor laboratory technician and former UNIFOR national representative and union organizer. It's kind of interesting that many workers in the oil patch are union members but that doesn't help the NDP even come close to winning there.

The extent to which unionized workers support the NDP has always been somewhat overstated. An EKOS poll in 2015 found that 23% of unionized Canadians intended to vote NDP in the next federal election, compared 19% of Canadians who intended to vote NDP in general. The percentage of Liberal support was 33% amongst unionized Canadians and 32% amongst Canadians in general and the percentage of Conservative support was 26% amongst unionized Canadians and 34% of Canadians in general. It seems like union members are not a monolith and have views as diverse as any bloc of voters.
https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/polls-theres-a-lot-of-tory-blue-on-union-workers-collars-siekierski

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

I don't dispute any of that, but union workers tend to be more supportive of the NDP at the provincial than federal level I think due to labour laws mostly being provincial in Canada. Only federally regulated industries are subject to federal labour laws.

You can look at how the provincial NDP has historically done about 5% or so better than their federal counterparts (25% of the vote or so compared to 20%) even though that province is a similar 3 party system.

Edit to add: on reflection I don't fully agree with that description of the NDP coalition. The NDP is a coalition of union members, (left wing) social activists and academics. Is that any less broad a coalition than the federal Conservative Party which is a coalition of small business owners (though Canadian small business owners aren't as right wing as those in the U.S), self interested conspiratorial types (global warming deniers...), and other aggrieved individuals.

[King of Kensington]

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

Is that really true of the Alberta NDP though? Rachel Notley seems to be about as successful as a "prairie populist" as one can be these days.

[Upper Canada Tory]

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

Is that really true of the Alberta NDP though? Rachel Notley seems to be about as successful as a "prairie populist" as one can be these days.

Nah, I think the Alberta NDP has been relatively successful at expanding their base (if not they wouldn't have governed with a majority government in Alberta for 4 years lol).

In fact, I would argue ON NDP and others need to learn from Alberta NDP on how to win over voters not traditionally part of their base.

[Upper Canada Tory]

The NDP candidate (soon to be nominated) in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo is Tanika Chiasson, a Suncor laboratory technician and former UNIFOR national representative and union organizer. It's kind of interesting that many workers in the oil patch are union members but that doesn't help the NDP even come close to winning there.

The extent to which unionized workers support the NDP has always been somewhat overstated. An EKOS poll in 2015 found that 23% of unionized Canadians intended to vote NDP in the next federal election, compared 19% of Canadians who intended to vote NDP in general. The percentage of Liberal support was 33% amongst unionized Canadians and 32% amongst Canadians in general and the percentage of Conservative support was 26% amongst unionized Canadians and 34% of Canadians in general. It seems like union members are not a monolith and have views as diverse as any bloc of voters.
https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/polls-theres-a-lot-of-tory-blue-on-union-workers-collars-siekierski

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

I don't dispute any of that, but union workers tend to be more supportive of the NDP at the provincial than federal level I think due to labour laws mostly being provincial in Canada. Only federally regulated industries are subject to federal labour laws.

You can look at how the provincial NDP has historically done about 5% or so better than their federal counterparts (25% of the vote or so compared to 20%) even though that province is a similar 3 party system.

Edit to add: on reflection I don't fully agree with that description of the NDP coalition. The NDP is a coalition of union members, (left wing) social activists and academics. Is that any less broad a coalition than the federal Conservative Party which is a coalition of small business owners (though Canadian small business owners aren't as right wing as those in the U.S), self interested conspiratorial types (global warming deniers...), and other aggrieved individuals.

IMO, Conservatives have a much larger base in the country. The Prairies, or at least Alberta and Saskatchewan, are consistently CPC voting - you have very few parts of Canada with a similar population that are consistently NDP voting (at the federal level). The Prairies can be assumed to vote for the Tories because of the resource sector.

Conservative voters in Ontario likely vote that way for the reasons you mentioned - small business owners, some people who are self-interested for whatever reasons. Other people that vote CPC in Ontario are suburbanites concerned about budgets and crime and in rural areas in ON and all over the country, gun owners are also a somewhat significant part of the CPC base. The socially conservative vote is a factor as well. In the Atlantic provinces, many Conservative voters vote that way for reasons similar to those in the Prairies (resource sector).

Anyway, the NDP doesn't have as much of a loyal base. The most loyal people that the NDP has are places with high rates of unionization, but that includes Hamilton, Windsor and a few other cities with roughly 500,000 people or fewer. Larger cities like Toronto, Vancouver tend to switch between NDP and Liberal, NDP used to be popular in Quebec roughly a decade ago but not as much anymore.

The NDP needs to increase its base from simply people in communities with high rates of unionization (Hamilton, Windsor, etc al) and swing Lib-NDP voters in Toronto. They need a region of the country they can call their consistent base. As I mentioned, the Alberta NDP is a great example of how this can be done, but the NDP in other provinces are unlikely to reproduce this strategy because they are always expected to be on the left wing of the political spectrum regardless of circumstances or other considerations.

[King of Kensington]

The Manitoba NDP has been the big-tent center-left party for more than half a century.  I'd say Horgan did the same with the BC NDP.  BC had really strong class-based voting through the 1990s.  But Horgan broke the juggernaut.  It's not the labor-based socialists vs. the free enterprise coalition anymore, Horgan transformed the BC NDP into a big-tent center-left party as well.