Alberta election 2023

[politicallefty]

It seems like 2019 was sort of a primal scream on the part of the right in Alberta.

Andrew Scheer levels of Designated Conservative Region Resentment Drivel Standard Bearer Candidate

Yeah, but it's not like they didn't have Stephen Harper's CPC before (or the Alliance or Reform).

[Benjamin Frank]

Danielle Smith has been compared to both Kari Lake and to Liz Truss (here by me, but others have made the comparison.) Now that we know more about her though (where was the Oppo research?) I think the Kari Lake comparisons are more correct.

However, one thing people have all said about her is that 'Danielle Smith is intelligent.' I don't think so, I think she's glib but not intelligent.

There are two examples of this I like to bring up.

1.From the book version of 'Yes, Minister' in the introduction:
"We were grateful to have had a few conversations with Sir Humphrey himself before the advancing years, without in any way impairing his verbal fluency, disengaged the operation of his mind from the content of his speech."

2.Alan Keyes, who is most famous for running against Barack Obama in 2004 for U.S Senator from Illinois after the original Republican candidate dropped out. Alan Keyes also ran for President in 1996. Extremely articulate and often extremely loony.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Danielle Smith strategy is clear enough: totally write off Edmonton, hope you keep enough in Calgary, sweep everything outside the two cities to form a majority government. You can criticize this approach by making observations like pointing out that the Banff seat is a rural seat that is certainly not safe, but I've never liked this sort of seat-by-seat analysis when it comes to Canada, because we're dealing with the Canadian electorate here and anything is possible.

When you try to lay out the logic of Danielle Smith's approach, basically it's an attempt to make the province-wide vote total irrelevant: if we just win the seats we need to, this line of thinking goes, it doesn't matter what they do in Edmonton because we're not planning on winning those seats anyway. The problem is that for this approach to be successful, the party using it needs to have a substantially more efficient vote than its opposition. Given typical voting patterns in rural Alberta, it is, uh, difficult to imagine the United Conservative Party having a particularly efficient vote distribution.

So, then, unless you think that the NDP will win 75% of the vote across the whole city of Edmonton while the UCP nonetheless wins half a dozen Calgary seats, you're left with having to win more votes than the opposition. The polls suggest that passing the NDP will be an uphill battle for the government, and Danielle Smith's rhetoric doesn't suggest she's terribly interested in that. The right-wing posturing to avoid losing the base might be a good strategic move in order to keep the party afloat in the medium term, but from the standpoint of short-term tactics it doesn't make any sense. (In fact, letting right-wing fringe parties get 20% of the vote in safe rural ridings would go a long way toward making the UCP vote efficient enough to win a majority even without getting the most votes.) Maybe gas prices go through the roof again and change everything, but right now it's hard for me to see how Rachel Notley isn't premier in seven months.

[politicallefty]

The Danielle Smith strategy is clear enough: totally write off Edmonton, hope you keep enough in Calgary, sweep everything outside the two cities to form a majority government. You can criticize this approach by making observations like pointing out that the Banff seat is a rural seat that is certainly not safe, but I've never liked this sort of seat-by-seat analysis when it comes to Canada, because we're dealing with the Canadian electorate here and anything is possible.

When you try to lay out the logic of Danielle Smith's approach, basically it's an attempt to make the province-wide vote total irrelevant: if we just win the seats we need to, this line of thinking goes, it doesn't matter what they do in Edmonton because we're not planning on winning those seats anyway. The problem is that for this approach to be successful, the party using it needs to have a substantially more efficient vote than its opposition. Given typical voting patterns in rural Alberta, it is, uh, difficult to imagine the United Conservative Party having a particularly efficient vote distribution.

So, then, unless you think that the NDP will win 75% of the vote across the whole city of Edmonton while the UCP nonetheless wins half a dozen Calgary seats, you're left with having to win more votes than the opposition. The polls suggest that passing the NDP will be an uphill battle for the government, and Danielle Smith's rhetoric doesn't suggest she's terribly interested in that. The right-wing posturing to avoid losing the base might be a good strategic move in order to keep the party afloat in the medium term, but from the standpoint of short-term tactics it doesn't make any sense. (In fact, letting right-wing fringe parties get 20% of the vote in safe rural ridings would go a long way toward making the UCP vote efficient enough to win a majority even without getting the most votes.) Maybe gas prices go through the roof again and change everything, but right now it's hard for me to see how Rachel Notley isn't premier in seven months.

It's probably not an unwise strategy for the UCP to mostly write-off Edmonton, but the they can almost certainly get a higher vote efficiency if the city votes around how it did in 2015. I don't think it's hard to see the NDP hitting 70%+ in Edmonton, especially in a more consolidated two-party race. The keys to government reside in Calgary and a significant portion basically votes like rural Alberta (or even more right-wing). I think the main concern is that the NDP can probably win the popular vote by 5% and still be relegated to opposition to a UCP Majority.

[DL]

I think the main concern is that the NDP can probably win the popular vote by 5% and still be relegated to opposition to a UCP Majority.

I'm not so sure about that - the UCP will likely win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins and waste a lot of votes. In the end it will all come down to Calgary.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think the main concern is that the NDP can probably win the popular vote by 5% and still be relegated to opposition to a UCP Majority.

I'm not so sure about that - the UCP will likely win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins and waste a lot of votes. In the end it will all come down to Calgary.

The UCP will win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins, but they did in 2019 too. I doubt Smith will actually increase rural margins in any meaningful way. Kenney may be hated in much of rural Alberta now, but this wasn't the case in 2019. I very much doubt that there are that many voters in rural Alberta who didn't vote for Kenney but will for Smith - surely there are some, but not enough that the UCP improves significantly on their already mammoth margin of 42% in 2019. As far as wasted votes go, the NDP has more room to grow (yet essentially gain no seats) in fortress Edmonton than the UCP does in fortress rural Alberta.

But yeah, all that means is that ultimately it comes down to Calgary, and there are good signs for the NDP there. However, I think it's still more likely that the NDP gets fewer seats despite winning the popular vote than the reverse.

[King of Kensington]

Danielle Smith is, bar none, the nuttiest Canadian Premier in my lifetime:

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she wants a “blanket amnesty” for residents charged with violating public health restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and, in what one expert called a nod to conspiracy theories, to cut ties between the province’s health authority and the World Economic Forum.

Smith has spent much of her time in her new position as premier railing against decisions made during the pandemic, moves she was also a loud critic of as a radio host and UCP leadership contestant.

The new premier has already pledged never to lock down again, come under fire for suggesting unvaccinated people were the most discriminated-against group she’d ever seen, and promised to protect unvaccinated people under the Alberta Human Rights Act.

Smith’s latest step in ripping the provincial government away from its past record of health restrictions was delivered Friday during an internet livestream with the Western Standard just minutes after announcing her new cabinet picks.

“I believe that Alberta Health Services is the source of a lot of the problems that we’ve had,” she said.

“They signed some kind of partnership with the World Economic Forum right in the middle of the pandemic; we’ve gotta address that. Why in the world do we have anything to do with the World Economic Forum? That’s got to end.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/10/21/danielle-smith-puts-her-stamp-on-alberta-cabinet-signalling-a-new-direction-for-the-united-conservatives.html

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Danielle Smith is, bar none, the nuttiest Canadian Premier in my lifetime:

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she wants a “blanket amnesty” for residents charged with violating public health restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and, in what one expert called a nod to conspiracy theories, to cut ties between the province’s health authority and the World Economic Forum.

Smith has spent much of her time in her new position as premier railing against decisions made during the pandemic, moves she was also a loud critic of as a radio host and UCP leadership contestant.

The new premier has already pledged never to lock down again, come under fire for suggesting unvaccinated people were the most discriminated-against group she’d ever seen, and promised to protect unvaccinated people under the Alberta Human Rights Act.

Smith’s latest step in ripping the provincial government away from its past record of health restrictions was delivered Friday during an internet livestream with the Western Standard just minutes after announcing her new cabinet picks.

“I believe that Alberta Health Services is the source of a lot of the problems that we’ve had,” she said.

“They signed some kind of partnership with the World Economic Forum right in the middle of the pandemic; we’ve gotta address that. Why in the world do we have anything to do with the World Economic Forum? That’s got to end.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/10/21/danielle-smith-puts-her-stamp-on-alberta-cabinet-signalling-a-new-direction-for-the-united-conservatives.html

I mean, I can only speak for myself (and I'm not Albertan), but at this point I'd probably vote ANDP if I lived there, unless I had a UCP incumbent/candidate who I really liked. Bear in mind that I support the CPC and voted for Poilievre, so if I'm turned off by Smith, I can't imagine I'd be the only dissenter within the UCP base. Especially bearing in mind that Alberta and especially Calgary (quite famously) has a lot of new residents moving in from elsewhere in Canada and abroad, and while those people might be disproportionately attracted to Alberta's conservatism re: things like taxes and individualism, her sovereignty agenda and general rural Alberta style wingnuttery might be a bridge too far.

Smith's strategy seems to be to energize "Wildrose types" by turning up the rhetoric to an 11, while scaring the "PC types" into voting against the socialist hordes at the gates. That would likely work against a Jagmeet Singh type figure, or a political novice with a thin record in AB politics. But Notley is no Singh, she's by all accounts very moderate for a New Democrat, and she has a record. I may not agree with her on everything, but she easily beats Smith on character and competence, and her agenda isn't so far-left that I would disqualify the NDP.

[politicallefty]

I think the main concern is that the NDP can probably win the popular vote by 5% and still be relegated to opposition to a UCP Majority.

I'm not so sure about that - the UCP will likely win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins and waste a lot of votes. In the end it will all come down to Calgary.

The UCP will win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins, but they did in 2019 too. I doubt Smith will actually increase rural margins in any meaningful way. Kenney may be hated in much of rural Alberta now, but this wasn't the case in 2019. I very much doubt that there are that many voters in rural Alberta who didn't vote for Kenney but will for Smith - surely there are some, but not enough that the UCP improves significantly on their already mammoth margin of 42% in 2019. As far as wasted votes go, the NDP has more room to grow (yet essentially gain no seats) in fortress Edmonton than the UCP does in fortress rural Alberta.

But yeah, all that means is that ultimately it comes down to Calgary, and there are good signs for the NDP there. However, I think it's still more likely that the NDP gets fewer seats despite winning the popular vote than the reverse.

I think the NDP will probably win many Edmonton seats by North Korea-style margins, especially against someone like Danielle Smith. The 2015 margins in Edmonton were obviously not a result of the right-wing split, unlike Calgary and many other small city and rural seats. I'm not saying it can't be done, but looking at the map, it looks like the NDP needs a breakthrough in either NW or Southern Calgary (some of the most right-wing non-rural areas in Canada).

I wasn't saying Notley can't win, but she's really got her work cut out for her and I do think she has to win the provincial popular vote by at least a couple points (assuming it's basically a two-party race).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think the main concern is that the NDP can probably win the popular vote by 5% and still be relegated to opposition to a UCP Majority.

I'm not so sure about that - the UCP will likely win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins and waste a lot of votes. In the end it will all come down to Calgary.

The UCP will win a lot of rural seats with North Korean-style margins, but they did in 2019 too. I doubt Smith will actually increase rural margins in any meaningful way. Kenney may be hated in much of rural Alberta now, but this wasn't the case in 2019. I very much doubt that there are that many voters in rural Alberta who didn't vote for Kenney but will for Smith - surely there are some, but not enough that the UCP improves significantly on their already mammoth margin of 42% in 2019. As far as wasted votes go, the NDP has more room to grow (yet essentially gain no seats) in fortress Edmonton than the UCP does in fortress rural Alberta.

But yeah, all that means is that ultimately it comes down to Calgary, and there are good signs for the NDP there. However, I think it's still more likely that the NDP gets fewer seats despite winning the popular vote than the reverse.

I think the NDP will probably win many Edmonton seats by North Korea-style margins, especially against someone like Danielle Smith. The 2015 margins in Edmonton were obviously not a result of the right-wing split, unlike Calgary and many other small city and rural seats. I'm not saying it can't be done, but looking at the map, it looks like the NDP needs a breakthrough in either NW or Southern Calgary (some of the most right-wing non-rural areas in Canada).

I wasn't saying Notley can't win, but she's really got her work cut out for her and I do think she has to win the provincial popular vote by at least a couple points (assuming it's basically a two-party race).

Suburban southern Calgary is basically the bedrock of conservatism in Canada, it's the part of the country that elected Ralph Klein, Preston Manning, Stephen Harper and Jason Kenney, and gave birth to Pierre Poilievre. Even with rapid population growth, changing demographics and increased NDP presence, I think a united right still holds on to ridings like Calgary-Lougheed, Shaw, Hays, and South East.

But the northwest is where the UCP is very vulnerable, while the northeast and the ridings around downtown are probably going NDP. I'd think the NDP's path is a near-sweep of northern and central Calgary, Edmonton and most of its suburbs (St. Albert, Strathcona County, Spruce Grove, Leduc etc), and potential pickups in some of the more left-accessible non-metropolitan ridings like Lesser Slave Lake and Lethbridge East

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Or in other words, the NDP's path in Calgary could involve recreating a Nenshi coalition, as seen below:



This is the 2017 mayoral election, where Nenshi won by a 51-44 point margin over his more right-wing challenger. It's no easy task, Nenshi didn't have to defend the NDP brand and got support from many conservatives. That said, the point is that the "Bill Smith" parts are probably inaccessible for the NDP, but if preconditions of Danielle Smith continuing to alienate more progressive-minded conservatives and Notley running a strong campaign are met, the "Naheed Nenshi" parts of that map could pave the way to an NDP victory.

[mileslunn]

I actually think NDP win comes more for bigger swings in Calgary, Capital region, and smaller cities.  NDP is already maxed out in much of Edmonton, especially central areas so little room for growth as even Edmonton as you see federally still has plenty of conservatives so party can only go so much higher.  Likewise truly rural ridings loathe NDP and I expect NDP to stay low in those no matter how crazy UCP is.  So if NDP is ahead, that means in areas I mentioned, swing is much bigger than overall swing.

In general not just Alberta, you tend to see bigger swings in swing areas than safe as 100% is maximum and it is very hard anywhere on earth to get over 80% let alone 90% for one party.  At same time in areas where weak, usually those areas that have strong dislike of party so big swings in those only possible for third party or a new upstart party that doesn't have any baggage. 

In 2015 and 2018 Ontario which were wave elections you saw this.  Liberals barely budged in rural Alberta where long hated while in strongholds they went up but not as much as in swing areas.  In 2018 Ontario, 905 belt saw biggest swing towards PCs.  They were already strong in rural Ontario so increases more modest while in downtown Toronto barely went up as PCs long loathed there thus no matter circumstances they were never going to do well there.

[adma]

One other thing to consider is how Smith's leadership might reawaken a "classic PC voter"--that is, one that's been blown off UCP by Smith's leadership but not to the point of committing to Notley.  It's not like they have a clear "third way" option beyond the eternally-also-ran Alberta Party; however, their "not Danielle's UCP" vote could wind up tipping a few seats to NDP anyway, 2015-style, and in a way that might even suggest that such voters could "live with it" whether they actually support Notley or not...

[MaxQue]

Here are the percentage majorities in Calgary:
McCall: -13.5
Mountain View: -10.6
Buffalo: -9.7
Falconridge: 0.7
Currie: 0.8
Varsity: 2.8
Klein: 7.7
North East: 13.7
Cross: 16.9
Beddington: 17.4
East: 17.5
Edgemont: 18.8
Acadia: 19.7
Elbow: 20.8 (but AP was 2nd with 30%)
Bow: 21.7
Glenmore: 23.6
North: 24.1
Foothills: 24.6
North West: 24.9
Peigan: 30.6
Fish Creek: 32.7
Hays: 37.8
Shaw: 39.7
West: 40.6
Lougheed: 41.2
South East: 42.2

So, 23-3 for UCP last time. On uniform swing, they would win all seats up to Glenmore with the Leger poll (16-10 for the NDP) and all the seats up to Fish Creek with the Navigator poll (21-5 for the NDP). A tied popular vote would get them up to Bow (15-11 for the NDP).

[mileslunn]

Here are the percentage majorities in Calgary:
McCall: -13.5
Mountain View: -10.6
Buffalo: -9.7
Falconridge: 0.7
Currie: 0.8
Varsity: 2.8
Klein: 7.7
North East: 13.7
Cross: 16.9
Beddington: 17.4
East: 17.5
Edgemont: 18.8
Acadia: 19.7
Elbow: 20.8 (but AP was 2nd with 30%)
Bow: 21.7
Glenmore: 23.6
North: 24.1
Foothills: 24.6
North West: 24.9
Peigan: 30.6
Fish Creek: 32.7
Hays: 37.8
Shaw: 39.7
West: 40.6
Lougheed: 41.2
South East: 42.2

So, 23-3 for UCP last time. On uniform swing, they would win all seats up to Glenmore with the Leger poll (16-10 for the NDP) and all the seats up to Fish Creek with the Navigator poll (21-5 for the NDP). A tied popular vote would get them up to Bow (15-11 for the NDP).

10 UCP seats in Calgary probably is enough to win provincewide albeit barely, but only 5 likely not.  That being said I suspect uniform swing won't work as you will see bigger swings in Calgary than most of province as in central Edmonton NDP close to maxed out while in truly rural ridings (not smaller urban) they hate the NDP so I don't see NDP gaining much.

[mileslunn]

Obviously next batch of polls will be telling, but below are advantages I think each party has and what is listed in other is disadvantages they have.

UCP

- Strong economy which is usually good for incumbents

-  Large surplus so lots of room for more spending and/or tax cuts (could also help Notley too as people less afraid of their spending plans)

-  Trudeau and Singh are extremely unpopular to Alberta so that probably has some negative impact on NDP but how much is question

-  UCP strongest amongst older voters who are more likely to show up

-  Strong baseline in ridings in that of the 41 seats outside two main cities, vast majority likely go UCP, so even as little as 1/3 of seats in Calgary probably enough and NDP sweep of Calgary unlikely unlike Edmonton

-  For whatever reason right tends to overperform polls and NDP under

-  Unlike most provinces uniting progressives is not enough, NDP needs to win over some who usually vote Conservative while UCP has a united right this time.

-  Most undecided voted UCP in 2019 so more likely they return to UCP than go NDP, but could stay home.

NDP

-  Notley leads Smith by large margins and often leader numbers lead indicator

-  Notley is a known quantity so fear factor will be harder to work as people know what to expect

-  Smith is crazy and well to right of even typical Alberta conservative politicians.

-  Notley is focused on swing middle of the road voters while Smith largely on base

-  NDP is talking about issues like affordability, inflation, health care, economy, otherwise top of mid issue for Albertans, not things like vaccines, sovereignty act which most Albertans don't care for

-  NDP has nominated more candidates so more time for door knocking and identifying supporters

-  NDP has better ground organization and with most elections 40-60% staying home, who can get their supporters out is often just as key as persuading undecideds  

-  Smith has worse approval ratings than Notley did in 2019 and type that typically lead to defeats.  Also lower than Harper 2015, although not quite Wynne 2018 yet.

-  Notley's approval ratings while not great, are higher than Trudeau federally in both 2021 and 2019 and similar to Legault and Ford and latter two won quite handily.  

-  NDP putting a lot of effort into Calgary which is key if they want to win since have Edmonton sewn up and most of Rural Alberta out of reach.  UCP by contrast writing off Calgary and focusing mostly on Rural Alberta which is going to go UCP anyways.  Calgary used to being front & centre in conservative governments in past likely won't appreciate this.

[mileslunn]

First view on Smith's first month in office and not looking good https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/danielle-smith-rachel-notley-ucp-ndp-alberta-janet-brown-1.6638402 .  Note Jan Brown most accurate pollster and tends to have UCP higher than others so while nothing certain, I think not only NDP winning is likely, them breaking 50% mark has a very good chance.  Even on economy where UCP should be strong more think doing a bad job than good.  Also despite what some claim, Albertans more likely to have positive than negative view of Notley.  I think many on right have failed to grasp province just isn't that right wing.  PCs were a bigger tent as well as demographic changes have pulled province leftward.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Time to resurrect this thread!

Danielle Smith is likely to call the election soon, though she'll probably want a shorter campaign. Notley has higher favourables, and the NDP can and will outspend the UCP - they raised $7.2M to UCP's $4.4M in 2022, even with the UCP having a leadership election that year.

Polling has been neck and neck. Nine polls have been conducted in this calendar year (at least the ones posted on wikipedia, but that's a pretty reliable source for Canadian polls), and the average of those nine polls is 45.5% UCP, 44.8% NDP. 338Canada is a little kinder to the UCP, their projection has UCP at 47% and NDP at 44%, and a 47-40 seat lead for the UCP, and boy are those some tight margins.

The NDP's strength is the relative popularity of their leader, with Notley consistently outperforming Smith on personal approval numbers. I expect that they'll make her the centrepiece of their brand (they already have been for some time), because "Notley" is more appealing to Albertans than "NDP". Opposite situation for the UCP, where Smith isn't very popular, but any party with "Conservative" in its name has a legacy support factor in Alberta. Polls have consistently underestimated the Conservative brand in Alberta for at least a decade, both federally and provincially, so there's that.

The other potentially decisive factor is that Danielle Smith is less appealing to urban voters than Jason Kenney was. The province as a whole will swing against the UCP, but Calgary will probably swing extra hard. How hard Calgary swings, or in other words where the NDP ceiling and UCP floor are in Calgary will decide this election.

[Хahar 🤔]

Travis Toews will not be running for reelection. I don't think it means he's out of politics, but if there is another Danielle Smith government after this election he will not be part of it.

My guess is that the NDP holds a geographical advantage and would win a majority if the vote were tied. There are some safe NDP seats in Edmonton, yes, but given the attention that the UCP has paid to securing its rightward flank I would expect there to be more rural seats where the UCP racks up the vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many seats would you categorize as "rural"?

[Hatman 🍁]

How many seats would you categorize as "rural"?

Alberta is easy to break down. 1/3 live in Calgary, 1/3 live in Edmonton, 1/3 live in the rest. Of course "the rest" is not entirely rural, but most small cities vote like the rurals, except for Lethbridge.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many seats would you categorize as "rural"?

Alberta is easy to break down. 1/3 live in Calgary, 1/3 live in Edmonton, 1/3 live in the rest. Of course "the rest" is not entirely rural, but most small cities vote like the rurals, except for Lethbridge.

Ah. That bares out in my playing with Boundary Assistant (One time I even made 3 district Alberta and roughly ended up with what you have just described)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Travis Toews will not be running for reelection. I don't think it means he's out of politics, but if there is another Danielle Smith government after this election he will not be part of it.

Toews joins Leela Aheer and Rajan Sawhney in not running for re-election, all three of whom ran for the leadership of course. Sawhney was most likely headed for defeat anyway, but Toews and Aheer would have comfortably gotten four more years if they wanted it. Rebecca Schulz is running for re-election but she's something of a rising star within the UCP.

I think some in the "Harper-Kenney Calgary establishment" wing of the UCP like Toews are secretly hoping for an NDP win. Canadian conservatives have a long and proud tradition of ruthlessly excommunicating leaders who lose winnable elections, and considering how close Smith's leadership win was, she will be no different. She may make a fuss and try to stay on as leader anyway, but if Smith isn't the Premier of Alberta come June, her leadership will be discredited, the UCP establishment will force her out the way CPC did to Scheer and O'Toole, and Kenney establishment loyalists will most likely take back control, which would put that wing in the driver's seat of the party once again.

My guess is that the NDP holds a geographical advantage and would win a majority if the vote were tied. There are some safe NDP seats in Edmonton, yes, but given the attention that the UCP has paid to securing its rightward flank I would expect there to be more rural seats where the UCP racks up the vote.

That seems to be the conventional wisdom, although the UCP does have room to fall in Edmonton. It's likely that the suburban Edmonton ridings that went NDP+10-15 go NDP+25-30 this time around, leading to a fair number of wasted votes. But the NDP knows that, they've been aggressively targeting Calgary because they know they can afford to take Edmonton for granted.

[DL]

That seems to be the conventional wisdom, although the UCP does have room to fall in Edmonton. It's likely that the suburban Edmonton ridings that went NDP+10-15 go NDP+25-30 this time around, leading to a fair number of wasted votes. But the NDP knows that, they've been aggressively targeting Calgary because they know they can afford to take Edmonton for granted.

Keep in mind that while there is only one UCP seat in Edmonton that the NDP could pick up if their vote increases that much - there are several more seats (maybe 4 or 5) in the exurban "donut" around Edmonton that could also be NDP targets if they sweep the so-called Capital Region

[lilTommy]

That seems to be the conventional wisdom, although the UCP does have room to fall in Edmonton. It's likely that the suburban Edmonton ridings that went NDP+10-15 go NDP+25-30 this time around, leading to a fair number of wasted votes. But the NDP knows that, they've been aggressively targeting Calgary because they know they can afford to take Edmonton for granted.

Keep in mind that while there is only one UCP seat in Edmonton that the NDP could pick up if their vote increases that much - there are several more seats (maybe 4 or 5) in the exurban "donut" around Edmonton that could also be NDP targets if they sweep the so-called Capital Region

If 2015 is any indication, and 2019 (while they lost these seats, the still had strong showings) the NDP can target some northern ridings like Lesser Slave Lake and Peace River. There is also Banff-Kananaskis in the south/Calgary exurbs that should be in play.