Alberta election 2023

[DL]

The official results are out. NDP narrow wins in Calgary-Acadia and Calgary-Glenmore are both confirmed and by slightly bigger margins. Also the NDP margin in Banff-Kananaskis increases from about 200 to about 300.

https://officialresults.elections.ab.ca/orResultsPGE.cfm?EventId=101

[Benjamin Frank]

I would also give as many Calgary and Edmonton donut MLAs cabinet posts while limit rural (will be rural dominated as caucus is).  They came dangerously close to losing several more Calgary seats so probably want to showcase Calgary caucus more.  Being shut out of Edmonton, I think that means those from donut become more important.  On racial front, I would try to include as many visible minorities as possible.  Also more women.  I don't expect gender parity, but probably should aim for 1/3 to 40% women.

As mentioned including only existing MLAs probably smart as any Take Back Alberta types likely to be an embarrassment, but not including them could anger Take Back Alberta.  Could also include a few in lower profile portfolios that are not too important and then when they screw up, as they will, use that as reason they aren't fit for cabinet.

I don't agree that it's a rural dominated caucus actually. I'd say only 19 of the 49 are rural. There are the 12 in Calgary and the remaining 18 are small city, Edmonton 'donut' and Calgary suburban.  I'm pretty sure this term has been used before: the 18 are 'rurban' (even if it was just Scooby Doo, which it wasn't.)

I would have 8 ministers from Calgary, 4 small city, 2 Edmonton 'Donut', 1 Calgary suburb, and 6 rural for a total of 21. Of the 4 'small city' that includes Danielle Smith who represents a small part of Medicine Hat, and Brian Jean from Fort McMurray. But, again, I'm not the one deciding.

[Njall]

Cabinet has been announced. None of the newly-elected MLAs have been appointed. The full list:


Premier and Minister of Intergovernmental Relations: Danielle Smith (Brooks-Medicine Hat)

Deputy Premier and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Services: Mike Ellis (Calgary-West)

President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance: Nate Horner (Drumheller-Stettler)

Minister of Advanced Education: Rajan Sawhney (Calgary-North West)

Minister of Affordability and Utilities and Vice-chair of Treasury Board: Nathan Neudorf (Lethbridge-East)

Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation: RJ Sigurdson (Highwood)

Minister of Arts, Culture and Status of Women: Tanya Fir (Calgary-Peigan)

Minister of Children and Family Services: Searle Turton (Spruce Grove-Stony Plain)

Minister of Education: Demetrios Nicolaides (Calgary-Bow)

Minister of Energy and Minerals: Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche)

Minister of Environment and Protected Areas: Rebecca Schulz (Calgary-Shaw)

Ministry of Forestry and Parks: Todd Loewen (Central Peace-Notley)

Minister of Health: Adriana LaGrange (Red Deer-North)

Minister of Immigration and Multiculturalism: Muhammad Yaseen (Calgary-North)

Minister of Indigenous Relations: Rick Wilson (Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin)

Minister of Infrastructure: Pete Guthrie (Airdrie-Cochrane)

Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade: Matt Jones (Calgary-South East)

Minister of Justice: Mickey Amery (Calgary-Cross)

Minister of Mental Health and Addiction: Dan Williams (Peace River)

Minister of Municipal Affairs: Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays)

Minister of Seniors, Community and Social Services: Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)

Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction: Dale Nally (Morinville-St. Albert)

Minister of Technology and Innovation: Nate Glubish (Strathcona-Sherwood Park)

Minister of Tourism and Sport: Joseph Schow (Cardston-Siksika)

Minister of Transportation and Economic Corridors: Devin Dreeshen (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)

[DistingFlyer]

With the official counts completed, have updated the pdf file to include the 2023 results (https://drive.google.com/file/d/190e1ieCLhZhtOmR2NA9sp69hg_QjD84R/view?usp=drive_link)

Looking at Calgary, Edmonton & the rest of the province, here's how things break down:

Calgary
NDP - 49.3% (+15%), 14 MLAs (+11)
UCP - 48.3% (-5%), 12 MLAs (-11)
Swing - 10.1% NDP

Edmonton
NDP - 62.9% (+10%), 20 MLAs (+1)
UCP - 34.5% (-0%) (-1 MLA)
Swing - 5.2% NDP

Remainder
UCP - 63.5% (-1%), 37 MLAs (-2)
NDP - 32.3% (+9%), 4 MLAs (+2)
Swing - 5.2% NDP


As I illustrated earlier, had there been a uniform province-wide swing of 6.8% last week the Tories would have won a majority of 25; the big swing in Calgary (which contained a disproportionate number of Tory marginals) was mostly responsible for their majority being cut to only 11 - had the entire province swung the same way as that city, the Tory majority would have been nine, and their province-wide popular vote margin would have been only 2% instead of 8.6%.

This also gives the NDP an advantage next time, as they only need a 2.5% swing to elect their 44th MLA - that is, they can lose the popular vote by 3.7% and still win power. (Five of the six most vulnerable Tory ridings that they need to pick up are in Calgary, while the sixth is in Lethbridge, so this is quite doable for them.)

[mileslunn]

With the official counts completed, have updated the pdf file to include the 2023 results (https://drive.google.com/file/d/190e1ieCLhZhtOmR2NA9sp69hg_QjD84R/view?usp=drive_link)

Looking at Calgary, Edmonton & the rest of the province, here's how things break down:

Calgary
NDP - 49.3% (+15%), 14 MLAs (+11)
UCP - 48.3% (-5%), 12 MLAs (-11)
Swing - 10.1% NDP

Edmonton
NDP - 62.9% (+10%), 20 MLAs (+1)
UCP - 34.5% (-0%) (-1 MLA)
Swing - 5.2% NDP

Remainder
UCP - 63.5% (-1%), 37 MLAs (-2)
NDP - 32.3% (+9%), 4 MLAs (+2)
Swing - 5.2% NDP


As I illustrated earlier, had there been a uniform province-wide swing of 6.8% last week the Tories would have won a majority of 25; the big swing in Calgary (which contained a disproportionate number of Tory marginals) was mostly responsible for their majority being cut to only 11 - had the entire province swung the same way as that city, the Tory majority would have been nine, and their province-wide popular vote margin would have been only 2% instead of 8.6%.

This also gives the NDP an advantage next time, as they only need a 2.5% swing to elect their 44th MLA - that is, they can lose the popular vote by 3.7% and still win power. (Five of the six most vulnerable Tory ridings that they need to pick up are in Calgary, while the sixth is in Lethbridge, so this is quite doable for them.)

Also redistribution will likely make it even more favourable to NDP as I suspect under new boundaries majority will be even smaller as most growth in two main cities.  Surrounding areas nearby only areas good for UCP that are growing fast and Edmonton donut was fairly competitive while surrounding Calgary areas more solidly UCP but not enough to counter other fast growing areas.

I also think who is in Ottawa may help or hinder NDP.  If Tories are in power federally, which is quite possible I think that will make it easier for NDP as UCP won't have that card to bash them with.  I actually believe that had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won last election in seats (not votes however) as that would have been enough to pick up those close seats.

[DL]

There SHOULD be a new redistribution in Alberta based on the 2021 census and that redistribution SHOULD create a couple of new suburban seats that are likely to be NDP leaning and the redistribution SHOULD eliminate a couple of underpopulated rural seats.

But does ANYONE trust Danielle Smith not to interfere in the process and try to gerrymander the map to the benefit of the UCP?

[mileslunn]

There SHOULD be a new redistribution in Alberta based on the 2021 census and that redistribution SHOULD create a couple of new suburban seats that are likely to be NDP leaning and the redistribution SHOULD eliminate a couple of underpopulated rural seats.

But does ANYONE trust Danielle Smith not to interfere in the process and try to gerrymander the map to the benefit of the UCP?

If she does probably just leads to further backlash.  Remember Harper's so called fair elections act which was a misnomer and more about making harder to vote for those who usually don't vote Conservative.  It had opposite impact as Canadians aren't as polarized as Americans so fewer who believe in cheating to help their own preferred party.  Some do, but not as tolerated as it is in US.

[Benjamin Frank]

Cabinet has been announced. None of the newly-elected MLAs have been appointed. The full list:


Premier and Minister of Intergovernmental Relations: Danielle Smith (Brooks-Medicine Hat)

Deputy Premier and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Services: Mike Ellis (Calgary-West)

President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance: Nate Horner (Drumheller-Stettler)

Minister of Advanced Education: Rajan Sawhney (Calgary-North West)

Minister of Affordability and Utilities and Vice-chair of Treasury Board: Nathan Neudorf (Lethbridge-East)

Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation: RJ Sigurdson (Highwood)

Minister of Arts, Culture and Status of Women: Tanya Fir (Calgary-Peigan)

Minister of Children and Family Services: Searle Turton (Spruce Grove-Stony Plain)

Minister of Education: Demetrios Nicolaides (Calgary-Bow)

Minister of Energy and Minerals: Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche)

Minister of Environment and Protected Areas: Rebecca Schulz (Calgary-Shaw)

Ministry of Forestry and Parks: Todd Loewen (Central Peace-Notley)

Minister of Health: Adriana LaGrange (Red Deer-North)

Minister of Immigration and Multiculturalism: Muhammad Yaseen (Calgary-North)

Minister of Indigenous Relations: Rick Wilson (Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin)

Minister of Infrastructure: Pete Guthrie (Airdrie-Cochrane)

Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade: Matt Jones (Calgary-South East)

Minister of Justice: Mickey Amery (Calgary-Cross)

Minister of Mental Health and Addiction: Dan Williams (Peace River)

Minister of Municipal Affairs: Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays)

Minister of Seniors, Community and Social Services: Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)

Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction: Dale Nally (Morinville-St. Albert)

Minister of Technology and Innovation: Nate Glubish (Strathcona-Sherwood Park)

Minister of Tourism and Sport: Joseph Schow (Cardston-Siksika)

Minister of Transportation and Economic Corridors: Devin Dreeshen (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)

1.What is the ministry of affordability and utilities?
2.25 ministers but no labour minister.

[Njall]

Cabinet has been announced. None of the newly-elected MLAs have been appointed. The full list:


Premier and Minister of Intergovernmental Relations: Danielle Smith (Brooks-Medicine Hat)

Deputy Premier and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Services: Mike Ellis (Calgary-West)

President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance: Nate Horner (Drumheller-Stettler)

Minister of Advanced Education: Rajan Sawhney (Calgary-North West)

Minister of Affordability and Utilities and Vice-chair of Treasury Board: Nathan Neudorf (Lethbridge-East)

Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation: RJ Sigurdson (Highwood)

Minister of Arts, Culture and Status of Women: Tanya Fir (Calgary-Peigan)

Minister of Children and Family Services: Searle Turton (Spruce Grove-Stony Plain)

Minister of Education: Demetrios Nicolaides (Calgary-Bow)

Minister of Energy and Minerals: Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche)

Minister of Environment and Protected Areas: Rebecca Schulz (Calgary-Shaw)

Ministry of Forestry and Parks: Todd Loewen (Central Peace-Notley)

Minister of Health: Adriana LaGrange (Red Deer-North)

Minister of Immigration and Multiculturalism: Muhammad Yaseen (Calgary-North)

Minister of Indigenous Relations: Rick Wilson (Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin)

Minister of Infrastructure: Pete Guthrie (Airdrie-Cochrane)

Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade: Matt Jones (Calgary-South East)

Minister of Justice: Mickey Amery (Calgary-Cross)

Minister of Mental Health and Addiction: Dan Williams (Peace River)

Minister of Municipal Affairs: Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays)

Minister of Seniors, Community and Social Services: Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)

Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction: Dale Nally (Morinville-St. Albert)

Minister of Technology and Innovation: Nate Glubish (Strathcona-Sherwood Park)

Minister of Tourism and Sport: Joseph Schow (Cardston-Siksika)

Minister of Transportation and Economic Corridors: Devin Dreeshen (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)

1.What is the ministry of affordability and utilities?
2.25 ministers but no labour minister.

1. It seems to largely be a ministry created for PR purposes given ongoing inflation and cost of living challenges. From what I can see, it seems to be in charge of doling out various rebates and other affordability payments from time to time, plus overseeing and regulating the utilities sector.

2. Yeah, there hasn't been an explicit labour ministry since Smith became Premier. The labour portfolio appears to have been folded into Jobs, Economy and Trade.

[Njall]

There SHOULD be a new redistribution in Alberta based on the 2021 census and that redistribution SHOULD create a couple of new suburban seats that are likely to be NDP leaning and the redistribution SHOULD eliminate a couple of underpopulated rural seats.

But does ANYONE trust Danielle Smith not to interfere in the process and try to gerrymander the map to the benefit of the UCP?

I expect the redistribution process to happen, but it's worth noting that the redistribution process in Alberta is uniquely susceptible (within Canada) to gerrymandering if one is brazen enough. The Commission consists of two members nominated by the Premier and two members nominated by the Leader of the Opposition, plus a Chair who is basically appointed by Cabinet, so the end result is a Commission where 3 of the 5 members are appointed by the governing party. And the nominees bring something of a partisan lens to their work. Anecdotally, after I had presented to the last boundaries commission, one of the NDP appointees had texted a friend who was involved in the NDP and attended university with me (my university logo was on my notebook) asking "what my politics are like".

Anyways, Alberta's legislation also permits unusually-wide populations deviations of +/- 25%, so a commission could choose to purposefully overpopulate urban ridings and underpopulated rural ridings (and the actual disparities would be even greater, because they'd be using 2021 census data for ridings that would first be used in 2027). And for up to four ridings, if they meet certain criteria, they are permitted to allow a population deviation of up to -50%. This is the provision that currently allows Central Peace-Notley and Lesser Slave Lake to exist, but it could be invoked elsewhere. For instance, a commission could choose to protect a depopulating riding like Drumheller-Stettler under that clause instead of expanding its borders.

[DL]

I wonder why the NDP didn’t clean up the redistribution process and make it more non partisan when they had the chance?

[Benjamin Frank]

Final Result Totals

Total Votes: 1,765,089
UCP: 928,896, 52.6%, 49
NDP: 777,397, 44.0%, 38

City proper
Edmonton: 370,496
NDP: 232,879, 62.9%, 20
UCP: 127,773, 34.5%,  0

Calgary: 551,920
NDP: 272,344, 49.3%, 14
UCP: 266,425, 48.3%, 12


If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

Edmonton 'Donut': 1.Leduc-Beaumont, 2.Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, 3.Morinville-St.Albert, 4.Sherwood Park, 5.Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, 6.St. Albert, 7.Strathcona-Sherwood Park

Edmonton 'Donut' 178,307
UCP: 91,593, 51.4%
NDP: 80,833, 45.3%

Riding Results
20,000+ votes, 53/87 ridings
50%+ turnout, 76/87 ridings
60%+ turnout, 46/87 ridings

Most votes: Airdrie-Cochrane: 30,072

[DL]

Final Result Totals

Total Votes: 1,765,089
UCP: 928,896, 52.6%, 49
NDP: 777,397, 44.0%, 38

City proper
Edmonton: 370,496
NDP: 232,879, 62.9%, 20
UCP: 127,773, 34.5%,  0

Calgary: 551,920
NDP: 272,344, 49.3%, 14
UCP: 266,425, 48.3%, 12


If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

Edmonton 'Donut': 1.Leduc-Beaumont, 2.Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, 3.Morinville-St.Albert, 4.Sherwood Park, 5.Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, 6.St. Albert, 7.Strathcona-Sherwood Park

Edmonton 'Donut' 178,307
UCP: 91,593, 51.4%
NDP: 80,833, 45.3%

Riding Results
20,000+ votes, 53/87 ridings
50%+ turnout, 76/87 ridings
60%+ turnout, 46/87 ridings

Most votes: Airdrie-Cochrane: 30,072

Thanks for doing this but shouldn't there be another category for "small cities" (i.e. Lethbridge, Red Deer etc.) and what do you do about "Calgary donut"? PS: Some would argue that Banff-Kananaskis is more Calgary donut than it is rural south, but i digress.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

[MaxQue]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

As I said above

If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

[adma]

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

Calg, Edm, their respective donuts + small cities = "less rural".

[Njall]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

As I said above

If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

Fwiw, as a token Albertan on this forum, I think that that list of "true" rural seats does indeed make sense. One could maybe quibble about Banff-Kananaskis, but it really doesn't fit that well anywhere. On balance, I'd consider it to be part of the rural south, albeit an anomalous part.

[Benjamin Frank]

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

Calg, Edm, their respective donuts + small cities = "less rural".

I actually meant 'total less (or minus) Edmonton ridings, and total less rural ridings, but same idea.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

As I said above

If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

Fwiw, as a token Albertan on this forum, I think that that list of "true" rural seats does indeed make sense. One could maybe quibble about Banff-Kananaskis, but it really doesn't fit that well anywhere. On balance, I'd consider it to be part of the rural south, albeit an anomalous part.

Interesting, so kind of like Powell River-Sunshine Coast in British Columbia. That area (and riding) isn't that far from North/West Vancouver but it isn't easy to get to Greater Vancouver from Powell River-Sunshine Coast, it's opposite Central/Northern Vancouver Island but takes a fairly long ferry to get there and it's not that far from Northern and Central British Columbia but I'm actually not sure how to get there from Powell River-Sunshine Coast. That area (and riding) is kind of connected to everything and nothing at the same time.

[MaxQue]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

As I said above

If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

Fwiw, as a token Albertan on this forum, I think that that list of "true" rural seats does indeed make sense. One could maybe quibble about Banff-Kananaskis, but it really doesn't fit that well anywhere. On balance, I'd consider it to be part of the rural south, albeit an anomalous part.

Interesting, so kind of like Powell River-Sunshine Coast in British Columbia. That area (and riding) isn't that far from North/West Vancouver but it isn't easy to get to Greater Vancouver from Powell River-Sunshine Coast, it's opposite Central/Northern Vancouver Island but takes a fairly long ferry to get there and it's not that far from Northern and Central British Columbia but I'm actually not sure how to get there from Powell River-Sunshine Coast. That area (and riding) is kind of connected to everything and nothing at the same time.

You don't. You either take the ferry to Comox on Vancouver Island or the long road with two ferries that brings you to West Vancouver.

There was a project to build a road to Squamish, according to Wikipedia, but it was cancelled due to requiring 2 tunnels and costing over 5 billions.

[adma]

Easily, from a psephological POV, the worst thing about the election is how Alberta totally caved to the "megapoll" tendency--that is, where a riding like Calgary North West where there were around 75 polling subdivisions in '19, there were only *9* in '23.  Which means, those of us into "deep psephology" (y'know, fine-grained polling detail and all of that) can just "go over" the whole province within the space of 2-3 hours and draw very little but the most banal, dumbed-down detail (Jasper a NDP landslide while the rest of its riding's a UCP landslide, ho hum).  That is stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, idiotic, stupid, stupid (and it seems to happen under right-wing or right-adjacent regimes; almost like it serves their purpose to dumb things down thusly--or even that they'd want to suppress that detail totally from public view, and maybe look forward to a "post-polling-station" electronic-voting future)

[Hatman 🍁]

Didn't it happen under Wynne in Ontario? I wouldn't exactly call her's a "right wing regime"

[DL]

On top of that, with ever increasing proportions of voters voting in advance polls (it will soon be 50% in some jurisdictions) - it will soon be virtually impossible to look at election results at any sort of granular level.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It’s got nothing to do with ideology or suppressing detail (?) it’s purely reflecting the lower rate of turnout on election day itself due to advance voting. And it’s a good thing that Electoral commissions are making it easier to vote to encourage higher turnout! Insisting everyone votes on the day at their own local polling place purely so psephology data is more granular doesn’t serve the greater public interest.
I’m sure this’ll gradually happen in all provinces, as urban Canada especially seems to have an absurdly high ratio of polling stations to population that simply isn’t fiscally justifiable.

(And if you hate the lower granularity of results, you’d hate it here in Australia where we don’t have assigned local polling places and people can just vote wherever happens to be convenient!)