Alberta election 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

[CelestialAlchemy]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

Makes sense, they've always been loyal to the conservative parties. I think they had a few Wildrose back before UCP, but if I recall correctly, that was always more of a factional dispute more than a big ideological difference?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

Makes sense, they've always been loyal to the conservative parties. I think they had a few Wildrose back before UCP, but if I recall correctly, that was always more of a factional dispute more than a big ideological difference?

It was a bit of both. The PCs were always somewhat of a big tent party while Wildrose was more ideological. In 2012 for example, Redford's PCs ran on a message that basically emphasized "progressive" more than "conservative", and Smith's Wildrose ran on a much more Danielle Smith-esque message. But Smith herself later defecting to the PCs is a good example of how a lot of the beef was more inside-baseball than ideological. Wildrose did best in the most right-wing parts of Alberta while PCs in 2012 won most of Edmonton (largely by picking off Liberal voters who strategically voted PC to stop Wildrose), so Alberta voters had already sorted themselves. But with politicians and insiders, as is often the case, it was more factional. You can kinda see it now where clearly some former PC voters have gone off to the NDP, but conservative politicians and insiders of both stripes have mostly stayed loyal to the UCP, except for a few exceptions like Thomas Lukaszuk who made a point to support NDP this time out.

But people like Lukaszuk are revealing in and of themselves, because he's an example of an ex-PC guy who was never particularly conservative, and represented a left-leaning riding. The PCs had grown to be such a broad coalition that they were simultaneously electing MLAs who represented government workers in Edmonton-Castle Downs and MLAs who represented Mormon farmers in Taber-Warner. A big tent like that may have held back then, but in today's polarized era, it's somewhat untenable.

Also, and as is often the case with big-tent parties, a lot of the factional disputes had more to do with the classic "who gets what, when, and where" stuff. There's only so many government positions and resources to go around that in the absence of competent leadership, people start jumping ship and the whole thing falls apart. Alison Redford's demise from power probably spelled the end of the era of PC dominance, because it started to become clear that comfort in power made the PCs internally unstable and incompetent. In Alberta's political culture, populist backlash against incompetent and/or corrupt governments almost always comes from rural areas, but so does hard-right politics, so the inside-baseball disputes and public policy differences went hand-in-hand

[adma]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

To me, psephologically speaking and given the kind of election that it was, that's about as inadequately is-the-sky-blue-is-the-grass-green "duh" an answer as one can offer.  I'd like to know *share* of victory relative to other parties et al, rather than just "easy UCP wins".

Which brings me to another issue: I tried looking up the polling results via Elections Alberta, and the polling maps don't coordinate w/the given figures because it'd seem like they've nuked numbered polling subdivision reporting on behalf of alphabetical all-in-one polling-location reporting--the dreaded "megapolls" which have plagued the last couple of Ontario elections.  And because there's no polling location that jumps out with the name "Cardston", I had to do a bit of searching to figure *what* the location serving Cardston was, as I don't know the named-location ground conditions there--I figured it to be the Tanner Centennial Seniors Centre, and *there*, the % result was UCP 79.39, "independent conservative" Angela Tabak (one of those "I recognize the Supremacy of God" types) 11.28, NDP 6.18, SM 3.04, TIP .11 (riding-wide: 74.24 UCP, 17.81 NDP, 5.97 Tabak, SM 1.45, TIP .43).  So, you can *definitely* read something there.  (There were a couple of other LDS-related polling locations--one, Del Bonita, had UCP w/81 votes to 2 NDP and 1 Tabak.  And Mountain View, W of Cardston, reported a quarter of the vote going for Tabak vs 3% NDP.  And the mobile for Cardston/Magrath had Tabak w/6 votes to the NDP's 3.)

Another place I was curious about was the far-north Mennonite centres around La Crete; among the  3 most obvious polls for that territory, UCP got 91.02%, "freedom" independent Conrad Nunweiler got  4.79%, the NDP gor 4.19% (ridingwide in Peace River, UPC got 72.84, NDP got 22.92, Nunweiler got 2.57, TIP got 1.67)

[Benjamin Frank]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

To me, psephologically speaking and given the kind of election that it was, that's about as inadequately is-the-sky-blue-is-the-grass-green "duh" an answer as one can offer.  I'd like to know *share* of victory relative to other parties et al, rather than just "easy UCP wins".

Which brings me to another issue: I tried looking up the polling results via Elections Alberta, and the polling maps don't coordinate w/the given figures because it'd seem like they've nuked numbered polling subdivision reporting on behalf of alphabetical all-in-one polling-location reporting--the dreaded "megapolls" which have plagued the last couple of Ontario elections.  And because there's no polling location that jumps out with the name "Cardston", I had to do a bit of searching to figure *what* the location serving Cardston was, as I don't know the named-location ground conditions there--I figured it to be the Tanner Centennial Seniors Centre, and *there*, the % result was UCP 79.39, "independent conservative" Angela Tabak (one of those "I recognize the Supremacy of God" types) 11.28, NDP 6.18, SM 3.04, TIP .11 (riding-wide: 74.24 UCP, 17.81 NDP, 5.97 Tabak, SM 1.45, TIP .43).  So, you can *definitely* read something there.  (There were a couple of other LDS-related polling locations--one, Del Bonita, had UCP w/81 votes to 2 NDP and 1 Tabak.  And Mountain View, W of Cardston, reported a quarter of the vote going for Tabak vs 3% NDP.  And the mobile for Cardston/Magrath had Tabak w/6 votes to the NDP's 3.)

Another place I was curious about was the far-north Mennonite centres around La Crete; among the  3 most obvious polls for that territory, UCP got 91.02%, "freedom" independent Conrad Nunweiler got  4.79%, the NDP gor 4.19% (ridingwide in Peace River, UPC got 72.84, NDP got 22.92, Nunweiler got 2.57, TIP got 1.67)

That's why I gave that answer, because I only knew the result from the riding from Elections Alberta and knew that every polling station was an easy UCP win.

[adma]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

To me, psephologically speaking and given the kind of election that it was, that's about as inadequately is-the-sky-blue-is-the-grass-green "duh" an answer as one can offer.  I'd like to know *share* of victory relative to other parties et al, rather than just "easy UCP wins".

Which brings me to another issue: I tried looking up the polling results via Elections Alberta, and the polling maps don't coordinate w/the given figures because it'd seem like they've nuked numbered polling subdivision reporting on behalf of alphabetical all-in-one polling-location reporting--the dreaded "megapolls" which have plagued the last couple of Ontario elections.  And because there's no polling location that jumps out with the name "Cardston", I had to do a bit of searching to figure *what* the location serving Cardston was, as I don't know the named-location ground conditions there--I figured it to be the Tanner Centennial Seniors Centre, and *there*, the % result was UCP 79.39, "independent conservative" Angela Tabak (one of those "I recognize the Supremacy of God" types) 11.28, NDP 6.18, SM 3.04, TIP .11 (riding-wide: 74.24 UCP, 17.81 NDP, 5.97 Tabak, SM 1.45, TIP .43).  So, you can *definitely* read something there.  (There were a couple of other LDS-related polling locations--one, Del Bonita, had UCP w/81 votes to 2 NDP and 1 Tabak.  And Mountain View, W of Cardston, reported a quarter of the vote going for Tabak vs 3% NDP.  And the mobile for Cardston/Magrath had Tabak w/6 votes to the NDP's 3.)

Another place I was curious about was the far-north Mennonite centres around La Crete; among the  3 most obvious polls for that territory, UCP got 91.02%, "freedom" independent Conrad Nunweiler got  4.79%, the NDP gor 4.19% (ridingwide in Peace River, UPC got 72.84, NDP got 22.92, Nunweiler got 2.57, TIP got 1.67)

That's why I gave that answer, because I only knew the result from the riding from Elections Alberta and knew that every polling station was an easy UCP win.

Though it's still a "duh" answer whereas deep digging brings out nuance.  (And in Cardston-Siksika, it's not quite accurate to state that every polling station was an easy UCP win--the FN reserves, Siksika in the N, Blood in the S, went NDP as one'd expect.)

[Njall]

How'd the election go in the Mormon-heavy areas in Southern Alberta? Cardston, and neighboring settlements.

Easy UCP wins.

To me, psephologically speaking and given the kind of election that it was, that's about as inadequately is-the-sky-blue-is-the-grass-green "duh" an answer as one can offer.  I'd like to know *share* of victory relative to other parties et al, rather than just "easy UCP wins".

Which brings me to another issue: I tried looking up the polling results via Elections Alberta, and the polling maps don't coordinate w/the given figures because it'd seem like they've nuked numbered polling subdivision reporting on behalf of alphabetical all-in-one polling-location reporting--the dreaded "megapolls" which have plagued the last couple of Ontario elections.  And because there's no polling location that jumps out with the name "Cardston", I had to do a bit of searching to figure *what* the location serving Cardston was, as I don't know the named-location ground conditions there--I figured it to be the Tanner Centennial Seniors Centre, and *there*, the % result was UCP 79.39, "independent conservative" Angela Tabak (one of those "I recognize the Supremacy of God" types) 11.28, NDP 6.18, SM 3.04, TIP .11 (riding-wide: 74.24 UCP, 17.81 NDP, 5.97 Tabak, SM 1.45, TIP .43).  So, you can *definitely* read something there.  (There were a couple of other LDS-related polling locations--one, Del Bonita, had UCP w/81 votes to 2 NDP and 1 Tabak.  And Mountain View, W of Cardston, reported a quarter of the vote going for Tabak vs 3% NDP.  And the mobile for Cardston/Magrath had Tabak w/6 votes to the NDP's 3.)

Another place I was curious about was the far-north Mennonite centres around La Crete; among the  3 most obvious polls for that territory, UCP got 91.02%, "freedom" independent Conrad Nunweiler got  4.79%, the NDP gor 4.19% (ridingwide in Peace River, UPC got 72.84, NDP got 22.92, Nunweiler got 2.57, TIP got 1.67)

That's why I gave that answer, because I only knew the result from the riding from Elections Alberta and knew that every polling station was an easy UCP win.

Though it's still a "duh" answer whereas deep digging brings out nuance.  (And in Cardston-Siksika, it's not quite accurate to state that every polling station was an easy UCP win--the FN reserves, Siksika in the N, Blood in the S, went NDP as one'd expect.)

Looking at some of the other Mormon towns, the poll covering Magrath was 74% UCP, 15.8% NDP, 6.8% Independent, and 3.2% Independence Party. And the poll covering Raymond and (I think) Stirling, which are in the neighbouring riding of Taber-Warner, was 74% UCP, 15.5% NDP, 7.5% Wildrose Loyalty Coalition (Paul Hinman), and 2% Green.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cynic has an interactive map of the results by polling station on his website: https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/international/ab-23

[mileslunn]

I decided to look at how each party did in percentages and got following so interesting.

UCP over 80% - 1 (Drumheller-Stettler) so anyone calling them a dinosaur party is somewhat true in sense they won biggest margin in that area although most mean out of date

UCP over 70% - 15 - all rural ridings so no surprise as Rural Alberta quite right wing and likely embraced Smith

NDP over 70% - 3 (Edmonton City Centre, Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood) so your urban central ones with lots of young progressive renters.

UCP over 60% - 30 (this shows divide as didn't crack 60% in either of the two main cities, but got over that in all but 11 outside two main)

NDP over 60% - 13 (11 in Edmonton while 2 in Calgary, which were Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview so very urban central with lots of young renters)

UCP over 50% - 47 (37 of 41 outside two cities while 10 in Calgary)

NDP over 50% - 31 (all 20 in Edmonton, 8 in Calgary while 3 outside two main cities, Banff-Kananaskis got under but over in other three won).  31 over 50% is actually very impressive for Alberta

UCP over 40% - 66 (Only 3 in Edmonton, but 23 of 26 in Calgary while 40 of 41 in rest of Alberta with St. Albert being only one under there)

NDP over 40% - 55 (all 20 in Edmonton and 25 of 26 in Calgary with 39% being worst in city in Calgary Southeast, while 10 outside two main cities but mostly smaller cities or areas in Donut around Edmonton, only one truly rural which NDP won).  This shows NDP has strong base and if they can just improve, they are closer to power than many think.

UCP over 30% - 81 (only 6 central Edmonton ones they fell below that) which makes sense as Edmonton elects Conservatives federally and main reason UCP bombed there is non-conservative vote united whereas federally does not.  Smith only got 4% less than O'Toole did in Edmonton although I imagine most PPC voters there probably voted for Smith.

NDP over 30% - 63 - This showed big rural/urban divide as in two cities, smaller cities and areas within commuting distance of both cities, NDP mostly cracked 30%.  In the truly rural ridings however generally failed.

UCP over 20% - 86, only riding they failed that was Edmonton-Strathcona, otherwise Notley's own riding

NDP over 20% - 79 so most but slightly more under due to unpopularity in Rural Alberta.  However even federally Tories seldom get over 80% in rural Alberta. 

If you look at poll by polls, noticed UCP did crack 90% in some rural polls, some even 95%.

[DL]

CTV reports the recount is complete in Calgary Acadia is complete and the NDP margin expands from 7 votes to 25!

[adma]

Looking at some of the other Mormon towns, the poll covering Magrath was 74% UCP, 15.8% NDP, 6.8% Independent, and 3.2% Independence Party. And the poll covering Raymond and (I think) Stirling, which are in the neighbouring riding of Taber-Warner, was 74% UCP, 15.5% NDP, 7.5% Wildrose Loyalty Coalition (Paul Hinman), and 2% Green.

Which is interesting in how neither diverge quite as much from the riding mean as Cardston does, i.e. the NDP was not all *that* far off from riding-wide levels--perhaps because the LDS political-cultural identity is less "binding" where there are mere meetinghouses rather than a temple; Magrath and Raymond operate a bit more like outer satellites of Lethbridge in that light, more open to a rural-Alberta world beyond LDS...

[DL]

The NDP win in Calgary Glenmore is confirmed after the recount. Election night 30 vote margin grows to 42 votes.

[mileslunn]

A lot of focus of NDP was on old PC vote and convincing them NDP was more like them than current UCP.  Looking at past elections, seems at best success there limited but won some over.  NDP pretty much won over all Alberta Party and Liberal supporters and same federally.  But amongst old PCs, it looks like got some in Calgary but relatively few in other parts of province.  Mind you in Edmonton, it does seem prior to 2015, PCs did do better there but looks like most left in 2015 for NDP and in 2019 either already going NDP or went Alberta Party.  A lot of Alberta Party supporters were old PC types.  Otherwise of PC types who voted UCP in 2019, it looks like outside Calgary, UCP was successful in holding them in 2023.  If anything the few they lost it appears more likely stayed home rather than switched parties.  Otherwise did what Ken Boessenkool did (he disliked Smith and wrote he was not going to vote at all) as opposed to Thomas Lukaszak who crossed over, but in his case pretty sure he didn't vote UCP in 2019 either.

For federal Tories it gets harder, but UCP vote was only slightly below what O'Toole got.  At same time probably fair to assume most PPC voters went UCP so it was close to awash there but does suggest some federal Tories went NDP.  Never mind it seems provincial Tories almost always do worse than federal counterparts and gap wasn't any larger than normal.  Biggest drop if anything was 2019 to 2021 as appears many who voted for Scheer went for Notley, but most of that group also went Liberal or NDP in 2021.  I think that was more an anti-Trudeau vote as Kenney still in honeymoon phase, but by 2021 many who disliked both parties went based on who they saw as lesser of two evils.

[Benjamin Frank]

Lorne Gunter is a right wing hack, as is evidenced by this article, but it does also accurately sum up the points that have been made here.

To make it clear how both are possible: his evidence is accurate, his conclusions from the evidence is right wing hackery (mostly.)

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

The one thing I believe he got wrong is that I believe turnout in 1989 was about the same as in 1986. I believe it was 1993 when turnout increased bigly.

Edit to add: turnout increased in both 1989 and in 1993, but the Conservatives only lost two seats in 1989, so I'm not really sure what point Gunter is making other than to point out that Don Getty lost his own seat in 1989.

I agree it will be interesting to see the cabinet that Danielle Smith puts together, this is the one non right wing hackery opinion in the article:

"If Smith can avoid controversial policies (and I don’t mean controversial according to the CBC or social media, I mean controversial according to ordinary Albertans...That sounds simple enough. It starts by appointing a moderate cabinet...Wooing right-of-centre voters while keeping the hardcore, such as Take Back Alberta, happy will be a tricky balancing act, though."  

[adma]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

[Benjamin Frank]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

[mileslunn]

Looking at past elections, I think in terms of UCP vote losses you can breakdown the following.

Rest of Alberta: UCP vote largely held up here with exception of a few small cities.  While lots of talk of old PCs going NDP, looks like in some rural areas, particularly Northwestern Alberta (where Grant Notley came from) it appears many who voted NDP in 2015 went UCP in last two. 

Edmonton: UCP did underperform PCs further back but got identical percentage to 2019 so that suggests to me any moderate PCs they lost, they lost them earlier not most recent election.  NDP gains came mainly from collapse of third parties and virtually all of that going NDP.  NDP though I think still got slightly less than 2015 and UCP did exceed combined PC + WRP from 2015 so probably some NDP votes then were simply throw the bums out types but not actually philosophically aligned with NDP.  It does seem in Edmonton conservative vote varies more but not sure that is due to them staying home or more most are close to centre so more open to switching.

Calgary: Its clear this is one area where NDP did pick up some old PC vote and no it wasn't just as Gunter suggests conservatives staying home.  NDP only got 33% in 2015, while 49% in 2023 so definite shift here.  So NDP's decision to focus heavily on Calgary was a smart move, just the shift they needed was a very large one and despite positive shift they came up a bit short.

I noticed many conservatives who are more ideological always claim loss is due to conservatives staying home when in reality I suspect its a mix of both.  Rarely when turnout falls is all the decline of one party, it tends to be across board.

[adma]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

But, and here's where my addressing Lorne Gunter kicks in: how "right-of-centre Alberta conservative" were they, if Danielle Smith wasn't good enough for them?  The shortfall would have been in more of a non-Notley "middle vote", closer to the "centre" part of "right-of-centre" than to the "right" part...

[Benjamin Frank]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

But, and here's where my addressing Lorne Gunter kicks in: how "right-of-centre Alberta conservative" were they, if Danielle Smith wasn't good enough for them?  The shortfall would have been in more of a non-Notley "middle vote", closer to the "centre" part of "right-of-centre" than to the "right" part...

By and large they must have been people who didn't vote in 2015 but voted UCP in 2019 and then were unhappy with the UCP government or with Danielle Smith but weren't about to vote NDP either.

That does raise a question: was there a single riding in the province where the actual UCP vote, not the percentage of vote, increased in 2023 over 2019?

[Hatman 🍁]

The ridings where the UCP increased in their share of the vote all saw a drop in their numerical share. It will be interesting when Elections Alberta posts the turnout figures by riding so we can see where the turnout drops were the highest. Certainly the three ridings where the UCP share went up were seriously effected by the forest fires, so I wouldn't be surprised if those were the ridings with the biggest drop in turnout. Certainly Lesser Slave Lake saw a large drop just by looking at the number of people who voted.

[Njall]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

But, and here's where my addressing Lorne Gunter kicks in: how "right-of-centre Alberta conservative" were they, if Danielle Smith wasn't good enough for them?  The shortfall would have been in more of a non-Notley "middle vote", closer to the "centre" part of "right-of-centre" than to the "right" part...

By and large they must have been people who didn't vote in 2015 but voted UCP in 2019 and then were unhappy with the UCP government or with Danielle Smith but weren't about to vote NDP either.

That does raise a question: was there a single riding in the province where the actual UCP vote, not the percentage of vote, increased in 2023 over 2019?

This is more interesting trivia than anything, but I know of at least two ridings where the raw UCP vote increased from 2019: Calgary-South East and Edmonton-South West (Kaycee Madu's former seat). Both of these results would basically 100% boil down to population growth, as they both contain numerous quickly-growing suburban communities. Calgary-South East was also a bit of an outlier in 2019 as the Alberta Party candidate, who got almost 20% of the vote, was an incumbent MLA who had crossed the floor from the PCs.

Anyways, in both of those ridings, the UCP gained around 1,000 votes over 2019. But the NDP gained around 5,000 or 6,000 votes over 2019 in each of them.

[MaxQue]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

But, and here's where my addressing Lorne Gunter kicks in: how "right-of-centre Alberta conservative" were they, if Danielle Smith wasn't good enough for them?  The shortfall would have been in more of a non-Notley "middle vote", closer to the "centre" part of "right-of-centre" than to the "right" part...

By and large they must have been people who didn't vote in 2015 but voted UCP in 2019 and then were unhappy with the UCP government or with Danielle Smith but weren't about to vote NDP either.

That does raise a question: was there a single riding in the province where the actual UCP vote, not the percentage of vote, increased in 2023 over 2019?

This is more interesting trivia than anything, but I know of at least two ridings where the raw UCP vote increased from 2019: Calgary-South East and Edmonton-South West (Kaycee Madu's former seat). Both of these results would basically 100% boil down to population growth, as they both contain numerous quickly-growing suburban communities. Calgary-South East was also a bit of an outlier in 2019 as the Alberta Party candidate, who got almost 20% of the vote, was an incumbent MLA who had crossed the floor from the PCs.

Anyways, in both of those ridings, the UCP gained around 1,000 votes over 2019. But the NDP gained around 5,000 or 6,000 votes over 2019 in each of them.

Going down the list, they also gained votes in:
Calgary-Elbow (+493, NDP+6392; the UCP also went up in vote share, but lost the seat (which was technically vacant). The seat had a AP incumbent in 2019 who polled 2nd 31%)
Calgary-Bhullar-McCall (+201; NDP +391, the UCP also went up in vote share; NDP hold)
Calgary-North-East (+702, NDP +5065, lost in vote share and the seat)
Banff-Kananaskis (+439, NDP +2597, lost in vote share and the seat)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (+383, NDP +1650, went up in vote share)
Morinville-St. Albert (+31, NDP +2964, went up in vote share)

So, 8 seats where the raw vote went up, but the NDP had a larger vote increase than them in all 8, the UCP lost vote share in 4 of them and the result in those seats were 3 UCP hold, 1 NDP hold and 4 NDP gains.

[Njall]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

But, and here's where my addressing Lorne Gunter kicks in: how "right-of-centre Alberta conservative" were they, if Danielle Smith wasn't good enough for them?  The shortfall would have been in more of a non-Notley "middle vote", closer to the "centre" part of "right-of-centre" than to the "right" part...

By and large they must have been people who didn't vote in 2015 but voted UCP in 2019 and then were unhappy with the UCP government or with Danielle Smith but weren't about to vote NDP either.

That does raise a question: was there a single riding in the province where the actual UCP vote, not the percentage of vote, increased in 2023 over 2019?

This is more interesting trivia than anything, but I know of at least two ridings where the raw UCP vote increased from 2019: Calgary-South East and Edmonton-South West (Kaycee Madu's former seat). Both of these results would basically 100% boil down to population growth, as they both contain numerous quickly-growing suburban communities. Calgary-South East was also a bit of an outlier in 2019 as the Alberta Party candidate, who got almost 20% of the vote, was an incumbent MLA who had crossed the floor from the PCs.

Anyways, in both of those ridings, the UCP gained around 1,000 votes over 2019. But the NDP gained around 5,000 or 6,000 votes over 2019 in each of them.

Going down the list, they also gained votes in:
Calgary-Elbow (+493, NDP+6392; the UCP also went up in vote share, but lost the seat (which was technically vacant). The seat had a AP incumbent in 2019 who polled 2nd 31%)
Calgary-Bhullar-McCall (+201; NDP +391, the UCP also went up in vote share; NDP hold)
Calgary-North-East (+702, NDP +5065, lost in vote share and the seat)
Banff-Kananaskis (+439, NDP +2597, lost in vote share and the seat)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (+383, NDP +1650, went up in vote share)
Morinville-St. Albert (+31, NDP +2964, went up in vote share)

So, 8 seats where the raw vote went up, but the NDP had a larger vote increase than them in all 8, the UCP lost vote share in 4 of them and the result in those seats were 3 UCP hold, 1 NDP hold and 4 NDP gains.

Also with that full list, it looks like seven of those eight ridings fit into two categories:

1. Quickly-growing ridings (Calgary-South East, Calgary-North East, Edmonton-South West, Banff-Kananaskis). Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville may also qualify here based on growth in the City of Fort Saskatchewan.

2. Ridings with strong(er) Alberta Party performances in 2019 (Calgary-South East (again), Calgary-Elbow, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Morinville-St. Albert).

The remaining one, Calgary-Bhullar-McCall, is likely the result of there only being two candidates on the ballot, possibly combined with mildly above-average population growth.

[Benjamin Frank]

New cabinet to be named on Friday. Should be interesting.

If it was me, I'd promote the more moderates like Rajan Sawhney to finance, but I doubt Danielle Smith will do that. It will be interesting to see if any of the 'Take Back Alberta' 3 or 4 new MLAs get into cabinet. We'll also see if Danielle Smith backtracks on not allowing Jennifer Johnson into the caucus (who is one of the Take Back Alberta.) It will also be interesting to see if Smith shrinks the size of the cabinet.

If it were up to me (which, again, it isn't ) I wouldn't put any newly elected MLAs into the cabinet, thereby explaining to Take Back Alberta  "They just haven't earned it yet, baby."

I'd shrink the cabinet from 25 to 21, leave all the 17 reelected ministers in the cabinet, and and 4 of the Parliamentary Secretaries/Government House Leader.

Unlike the 'anti woke' here I think that racial diversity is an issue, but it's not the only measure of 'diversity' by any means. A big part of the problem for the UCP cabinet I think is that at least 2/3 of their MLAs backgrounds is in business. There aren't many MLAs with a social service background or in education especially.

Those on the right make a big deal about people without a business background as minister of finance, or, in Alberta, people without an energy background as energy minister (while otherwise,as far as I can tell, denying the relevance of 'lived experience') but, similarly, a construction company owner as social services minister or minister of education?

(The current education minister was a Catholic school board chair.)

7 UCP MLAs have a business background in construction or property management/development and 7 have a business background as farmers/ranchers, but one is both a construction company owner and a farmer/rancher, so that's 13 of the 49.

[mileslunn]

I would also give as many Calgary and Edmonton donut MLAs cabinet posts while limit rural (will be rural dominated as caucus is).  They came dangerously close to losing several more Calgary seats so probably want to showcase Calgary caucus more.  Being shut out of Edmonton, I think that means those from donut become more important.  On racial front, I would try to include as many visible minorities as possible.  Also more women.  I don't expect gender parity, but probably should aim for 1/3 to 40% women.

As mentioned including only existing MLAs probably smart as any Take Back Alberta types likely to be an embarrassment, but not including them could anger Take Back Alberta.  Could also include a few in lower profile portfolios that are not too important and then when they screw up, as they will, use that as reason they aren't fit for cabinet.