Alberta election 2023

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I’m feeling lucky. Even luckier than before I read this thread. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a narrow NDP win, at least in terms of seats. I don’t think we should ignore the possibility of the UCP winning the popular vote though.

[Oryxslayer]

A surprising lack of E-Day commentary. Nothing but bated breath cause everyone expects a close result?

CBC results page for later today.

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections Alberta might be a better place to go, since they report results by polling division.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I decided to do a riding-by-riding prediction... or a not all that informed guess, really. Don't blame me if it doesn't add up. Anyway, instead of guessing the popular vote and estimating the seats based on that, I tried to put every seat into one of six groups: seats that I think will be won by UCP with 50-ish, 60-ish and 70-ish percent, and ditto for NDP. I did it based on these assumptions:

– A 5-ish point gain for NDP in rural Alberta, mostly from AP while UCP stays put or gains a little from small far-right parties
– A 5-10 point gain for NDP in and around Edmonton, mostly from AP and a little from UCP
– A 10-15 point gain for NDP in Calgary, mostly from AP but also 5-ish points from UCP

Of course, the problem with Calgary is that there are wildly different opinions on who the swing voters end up flocking to. This left me with some half dozen tossups, which I decided to allocated in a way that would give the most infuriating/entertaining result: a one-seat UCP majority. Then I added up the votes, subtracted a few percent that will probably go for third parties and ended up with this:

UCP 51% [▼4] 44 seats [▼19]
NDP 46% [▲12] 43 seats [▲19]
Others 3% [▼8]

The six categories are the ones mentioned above. If NDP does better, the next seats to fall will probably be Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-North West, Calgary-Peigan, Strathcona-Sherwood Park and Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville. I don't think the two Red Deer seats or the five southern Calgary seats will go NDP unless they win in a landslide.

Pale orange is NDP gains, pale blue are the five seats mentioned above.

Just saying, I think people vastly underestimate how well the UCP will do in Calgary, especially northeastern Calgary. Most of that area was pretty blue in 2019 and the UCP's polling numbers are not so much worse this time that they would be expected to lose that many ridings. Plus as others have pointed out prior in this thread, there is the potential for a 'shy Smith voter' phenomenon.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I expect a UCP win. Alberta is a beautiful province with ugly politics.

[Pericles]

The NDP tend to be overestimated and the UCP are in the lead, so I expect they will win but I am hopeful for the possibility of an NDP win.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Alright, here's my prediction:

UCP: 51 seats, 51% PV
NDP: 36 seats, 46% PV

Unless there was a massive polling error and/or rampant herding, the polling is clear that the race went from dead heat to a lean UCP popular vote advantage. The NDP does have a more efficient vote, which keeps them in contention. But Calgary regionals have been looking better for the UCP, so I don't think their vote will be too inefficient either.

More importantly, the NDP's momentum really seems to have stalled since the debate, if not since the fires. Wave elections that significantly change the makeup of government usually see a polling boost during the campaign reflecting that momentum - Layton '11, Trudeau '15, hell, Notley herself in 2015 saw a huge polling boost after the debates. This time though, the NDP was pretty stagnant all campaign, and the UCP leapfrogged them in polling averages for the first time since mid-2020.

So while I could still see an NDP win, as a function of how low Smith's approvals are and just how much better the NDP infrastructure has gotten in Alberta, I'd consider that an upset. I think UCP holds on.

[DistingFlyer]

Just getting this in under the wire (am at sea at the moment, and will be going on watch until an hour after the polls close):

Tories: 47 MLAs (49%)
New Democrats: 40 MLAs (46%)

In spite of the polls being pretty consistent over the last few weeks I'm still a little uncertain given how off they were last time, when the Tories' lead ended up not only exceeding the aggregate numbers but every single poll released during the campaign (and not by a small amount either). I doubt there'll be a big last-minute swing here, as most people seem to have made their minds up about both parties (and leaders) some time ago.

Will therefore give a margin of error of +/- 4 MLAs for the above prediction.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1663314634512777216?s=20

This is a good point. The election has more than once been described as "Americanized" as a response to the duoploistic parties squeezing out all others, and how the coalitions assembled break down in a familiar fashion according to demographic subsamples. The same may possibly be expected of advance voters.

[brucejoel99]

Ig the NDP gets its clock cleaned in the rurals but nails the Calgary inside-straight, vindicating MainSt riding polls/ThinkHQ:

NDP (Rachel Notley): 46 MLAs, 48.9% PV
UCP (Danielle Smith): 41 MLAs (incl. Jennifer Johnson), 49.7% PV

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gonna guess...
UCP 45 51%
NDP 42 46%

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’m gonna predict 

UCP 51
NDP 36

[S019]

UCP 50%, 48 seats
NDP 47% 39 seats

[RFK 2024]

This is one of those elections where I truly have no clue which way it's going to go, but I expect it will be quite close.  I have no plans of staying up all evening and watching it either.

Gun to my head the UCP narrowly wins.

[Independents for Nihilism]

What ridings are the ones to watch as early results come in? Does it basically just come down to who wins Calgary?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What ridings are the ones to watch as early results come in? Does it basically just come down to who wins Calgary?

Yeah more or less. It's hard to tell exactly where the biggest swings will be because regional subsamples tend to be very hit or miss. I think Calgary North West, North, Bow, Elbow, East, Beddington and Foothills are probably worth following closely. Outside Calgary, some ridings worth watching might be:

- Lethbridge East
- Lesser Slave Lake
- Banff-Kananaskis
- Morinville-St Albert
- Sherwood Park
- Strathcona-Sherwood Park

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Less than minute until polls close.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polls closed.

[TwinGeeks99]

The first results are coming in, mostly from the rural ridings.

[Oryxslayer]

First results in the first 3 ridings are not advance polls.

[TwinGeeks99]

The fact that there are two Calgary seats where exactly one vote was counted right now, both of them for the UCP.

[Independents for Nihilism]

The fact that there are two Calgary seats where exactly one vote was cast right now, both of them for the UCP.

UCP has 100% of the vote in Calgary, it's over clearly

[lyhom]

The fact that there are two Calgary seats where exactly one vote was counted right now, both of them for the UCP.

three more seats in calgary are now like this, apparently they're special ballots?

[Mexican Wolf]

Now the NDP has a 8-0 lead in one seat, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Now the NDP has a 8-0 lead in one seat, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul.

Realigning election of the century