Why are Bucks and Berks county much more Republican than other counties surrounding Philly?

[Cyrusman]

Why are both Bucks and Berks county PA much more GOP friendly than Chester, Delaware, Leigh, and Montgomery counties? Even though Bucks didn’t vote for Trump either time or was very close both times.

[Sol]

Why are both Bucks and Berks county PA much more GOP friendly than Chester, Delaware, Leigh, and Montgomery counties? Even though Bucks didn’t vote for Trump either time or was very close both times.

Berks is an easy one. Reading is a separate metro from Philly; it's similar to Lancaster and York as a lowland, more ag-oriented mini-metro with heavy Pennsylvania Dutch influence. It's on the edge of being swingy because Reading is a fairly heavily ex-industrial place with a large Latino population.

Bucks is a bit more complex. Lower Bucks is similar to NE Philly in that it's an inner suburban swingy area with a lot of more working-class white people, similar to places like Nassau County except less diverse. The central part of Bucks is a bit more upscale and liberal and votes like much of Montgomery County, but the far west is fairly exurban and consequently R-leaning.

[Boss_Rahm]

https://www.septa.org/maps/region/pdf/suburb.pdf

[lfromnj]

Why are both Bucks and Berks county PA much more GOP friendly than Chester, Delaware, Leigh, and Montgomery counties? Even though Bucks didn’t vote for Trump either time or was very close both times.

Berks is an easy one. Reading is a separate metro from Philly; it's similar to Lancaster and York as a lowland, more ag-oriented mini-metro with heavy Pennsylvania Dutch influence. It's on the edge of being swingy because Reading is a fairly heavily ex-industrial place with a large Latino population.

Bucks is a bit more complex. Lower Bucks is similar to NE Philly in that it's an inner suburban swingy area with a lot of more working-class white people, similar to places like Nassau County except less diverse. The central part of Bucks is a bit more upscale and liberal and votes like much of Montgomery County, but the far west is fairly exurban and consequently R-leaning.

But even then Middle Bucks isn't even close to as liberal as Montgomery even it has similar demographics. The lack of the main line is probably a key influence.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why are both Bucks and Berks county PA much more GOP friendly than Chester, Delaware, Leigh, and Montgomery counties? Even though Bucks didn’t vote for Trump either time or was very close both times.

Berks is an easy one. Reading is a separate metro from Philly; it's similar to Lancaster and York as a lowland, more ag-oriented mini-metro with heavy Pennsylvania Dutch influence. It's on the edge of being swingy because Reading is a fairly heavily ex-industrial place with a large Latino population.

Bucks is a bit more complex. Lower Bucks is similar to NE Philly in that it's an inner suburban swingy area with a lot of more working-class white people, similar to places like Nassau County except less diverse. The central part of Bucks is a bit more upscale and liberal and votes like much of Montgomery County, but the far west is fairly exurban and consequently R-leaning.

But even then Middle Bucks isn't even close to as liberal as Montgomery even it has similar demographics. The lack of the main line is probably a key influence.

The educated suburban Dem leaning streak that runs through Chester and Montgomery seems to mostly end by Bucks, with Bucks just getting a little bit of a remainder of it. The less WWC areas of South Bucks seem to be the biggest Dem vote net in this day and age.

Bucks seems like a micro-organism of swingy white America as it's been remarkably stable in it's voting for a while now, and has a little bit of everything but dramatic underlying shifts.

For reference:

2000 Pres: D + 4.4
2004 Pres: D + 2.8
2008 Pres: D + 8.7
2012 Pres: D + 1.2
2016 Pres: D + 0.6
2020 Pres: D + 4.4

Good chance it becomes a bellwether County of sorts that is routinely competitive, large, and in a key swing state.

[VPH]

It's been kind of (not perfectly aligned with statewide results but close) a bellwether for years now.

You've got three things playing out at once:
-Lower Bucks is historically Dem WWC and trending towards the GOP, even swinging away from Democrats from 2016 to 2020 like NE Philly did
-Middle Bucks is suburban, decently well off, and moderate but trending towards Democrats
-Exurban Northern Bucks is pretty consistently GOP and doesn't swing much in either direction

Brian Fitzpatrick is immensely popular and wins over enough of these three groups as a centrist and pro-labor GOPer. On the other hand, Democrats like Josh Shapiro and Joe Biden perform well there.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Reading and its suburbs collectively are ever so slightly Dem-leaning, but the massive GOP raw vote margins put out by its share of Pennsylvania Dutch country (less present, and rapidly vanishing, in counties closer to Philly) are more than enough to offset it, the small and modestly Dem college town of Kutztown notwithstanding. Its closest analogue in the state is clearly Lancaster County, though it has some similarities with the Lehigh Valley to its northeast as well. Berks County surely doesn't inspire the sort of interior migration of the liberal and affluent that the Main Line gets, either, and has fewer of those types to begin with.

Side note: I remember seeing a John Fetterman tweet from when he was attending a gathering in Kutztown where he called his environs the most Republican county in the state. Poor bastard.

[wbrocks67]

Well, if you've ever been to Berks, it's not hard to see, lol. It's also just more of a 'rural' suburban area compared to Montco and Chester.

Montco/Chester, and Bucks to an extent also seem to get a lot of college+ people moving in, while Berks is not seen that way (as the first choice for the "suburban" outside Philly life, obv)

[Cyrusman]

Well, if you've ever been to Berks, it's not hard to see, lol. It's also just more of a 'rural' suburban area compared to Montco and Chester.

Montco/Chester, and Bucks to an extent also seem to get a lot of college+ people moving in, while Berks is not seen that way (as the first choice for the "suburban" outside Philly life, obv)

Why is Bucks so much more republican than Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties?

[Smash255]

Well, if you've ever been to Berks, it's not hard to see, lol. It's also just more of a 'rural' suburban area compared to Montco and Chester.

Montco/Chester, and Bucks to an extent also seem to get a lot of college+ people moving in, while Berks is not seen that way (as the first choice for the "suburban" outside Philly life, obv)

Why is Bucks so much more republican than Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties?

Bucks, while fairly well educated, is a bit more WWC than the other three.  It is also only recently that Bucks has become more Republican than Chester.   Granted it was by just a few hundred votes, but Romney actually won Chester in 2012.  Chester has trended heavily Democratic since then due to the GOP's problems with the college educated vote under Trump.  As VPH pointed out Bucks has a few trends that cancel each other out and as a whole has been stagnant.

[King of Kensington]

Some very crude generalizations:

Delaware County:  inner-ring suburbs, largely an extension of white ethnic and Black Philadelphia

Montgomery County:  affluent/Main Line, liberal, largely Jewish

Chester County:  more WASPy affluent suburbs, trending blue

Bucks County:  mix of inner-ring suburbs and McMansions

South Jersey:  More working class and more Italian American than PA side

[Tintrlvr]

Some very crude generalizations:

Delaware County:  inner-ring suburbs, largely an extension of white ethnic and Black Philadelphia

This is not really accurate. There are some "white ethnic/WWC" areas of Delaware County along the Delaware River, but they're relatively small compared to the size of the county, and the description as WWC would make you think the county is trending Republican; in fact, it's trending strongly Democratic. This is in part due to the growing black population but more significantly due to changing voting patterns among wealthy white voters who make up a big part of the population of Delaware County, which are concentrated in the north of the county (along Route 3, especially the towns of Haverford and Radnor) and around and west of Swarthmore (such as Nether Providence and extending to a lesser degree well west into Middletown, Chester Heights, etc.). Part of the Main Line also runs through Delaware County at Wayne, which also happens to be the very wealthiest area of the entire Philadelphia metro. (Wayne-Radnor is where, e.g., CEOs of major companies headquartered in/around Philadelphia live.)

Montgomery County:  affluent/Main Line, liberal, largely Jewish

The Main Line only barely runs through Montgomery County in the far south (around Ardmore). This doesn't make the affluent/liberal characterization wrong (although some heavily minority and more middle class areas, like Cheltenham and Norristown, add quite significantly to Montgomery County's solid Democratic status as well), but it's worth noting that "Main Line" is much more accurately a descriptor of Chester County, where most it runs, and applies equally to northern Delaware County as to southern Montgomery County. Also, while I agree the Jewish population in the Philadelphia metro mostly lives in Montgomery County, calling it "largely" Jewish is a huge overstatement; the Jewish population of Montgomery County must be under 10%.

It's also worth pointing out that Montgomery County stretches way out into the exurbs. Somewhere like Pottstown is barely even in the Philadelphia metro, and there are areas out near Pottstown that feel genuinely rural (unlike in Delaware County, which is the most completely built out of the ring counties).

Chester County:  more WASPy affluent suburbs, trending blue

This is true, but I would also say the "Main Line" descriptor is most apt for Chester County, and Chester County, like Montgomery County, does have some heavily minority towns such as Coatesville. Also, outer Chester County is quite rural.

Bucks County:  mix of inner-ring suburbs and McMansions

The WWC descriptor you gave for Delaware County is really more accurate for Bucks County. Although Bucks County also has a Montgomery County-like area in the middle of the county as well, and like Montgomery and Chester Counties the farthest part of the county from Philadelphia is quite rural (although starting to butt up against the Lehigh Valley metro as well).

South Jersey:  More working class and more Italian American than PA side

Agree generally - but also more minority, especially in Camden County, which has a much higher non-white population than any of the suburban ring counties in Pennsylvania.

[King of Kensington]

Ancestry:

Bucks

German  24.7%
Irish  24.6%
Italian  15.9%
English/American  14%

Chester

Irish  23.5%
German  22.2%
English/American  15.8%
Italian  15%

Delaware

Irish  25.7%
Italian  17%
German  14.5%
English/American  11.1%

Montgomery

Irish  21.5%
German  21.5%
Italian  15.5%
English/American  12.2%

Burlington

Irish  20.2%
German  18%
Italian  16.1%
English/American  12.1%

Camden

Irish  19.1%
Italian  16.4%
German  14.6%
English/American  9.5%

Gloucester

Irish  27%
Italian  25.9%
German  21.9%
English/American  12.4%

Salem

Irish  21.1%
German  19.8%
English/American  16.6%
Italian  13.5%

Montgomery is the most Jewish county (8.1%), followed by Bucks (6.6%) and Camden (6.2%).

[King of Kensington]

College graduates

Chester  50.3%
Montgomery  47.5%
Bucks  38.4%
Delaware  36.7%
Burlington  36.4%
Camden  30.7%
Gloucester  30%
Salem  20.3%

[Flyersfan232]

Why are both Bucks and Berks county PA much more GOP friendly than Chester, Delaware, Leigh, and Montgomery counties? Even though Bucks didn’t vote for Trump either time or was very close both times.

Berks is an easy one. Reading is a separate metro from Philly; it's similar to Lancaster and York as a lowland, more ag-oriented mini-metro with heavy Pennsylvania Dutch influence. It's on the edge of being swingy because Reading is a fairly heavily ex-industrial place with a large Latino population.

Bucks is a bit more complex. Lower Bucks is similar to NE Philly in that it's an inner suburban swingy area with a lot of more working-class white people, similar to places like Nassau County except less diverse. The central part of Bucks is a bit more upscale and liberal and votes like much of Montgomery County, but the far west is fairly exurban and consequently R-leaning.

upper bucks it exburbian with some rural too

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

College graduates

Chester  50.3%
Montgomery  47.5%
Bucks  38.4%
Delaware  36.7%
Burlington  36.4%
Camden  30.7%
Gloucester  30%
Salem  20.3%

The size of that gap between Camden and Chester is interesting. Comes to show that this data only tell part of the story insofar as to how a county votes (minorities are obviously quite numerous in Camden).
But then again the NJ side of the metro is less UMC in general, white or otherwise.

[sting in the rafters]

Lower Bucks is similar to NE Philly in that it's an inner suburban swingy area with a lot of more working-class white people, similar to places like Nassau County except less diverse.

They even have their own Levittown's! But yeah Bucks going to always be competitive due to having the the heads which have been there since it Penn founded it which are ancestrally R, the first waves of postwar growth which are now declining, a good amount of minority immigration post-1965 because of the school districts in Central, and some of the Lehigh Valley growth transplants spilling over in Upper.