Will Russian public opinion turn on Putin?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Russian public opinion turn on Putin in the war?

[It’s so Joever]

Not enough to change things.

[dead0man]

yes, but they might not be willing to admit it until he's dead a few years

[CumbrianLefty]

Very possibly, the lack of actual enthusiasm for this war in Russia has to be a big tell.

[President Johnson]

Not enough to make a difference. It certainly would happen with a free press. Since this isn't the case, I'm skeptical the public will turn on him. More likely is the apparatus having enough.

[brucejoel99]

So long as Putin controls the Russian media, no. Maybe the people turn on him after surviving soldiers return home from Ukraine & tell as many of their fellow countrymen as possible about the stupidity of the madman's "special military operation" & how it led their lives to ruin, but that's a long-shot, & unfortunately one that'll take time & cost many lives.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

How would you even tell?

Ministry of Truth reports 110% of Russians love Putin more than own mother

[MABA 2020]

Unlikely, Russia has never really know democracy for more than five minutes, they're used being ruled by strongmen and I think many Russians are resigned to it.

[Aurelius]

Yes, but not nearly as much as Western liberals think, and probably not enough to make a difference. I'll believe that Putin's become unpopular when the Levada Center says so.

[Lief 🗽]

No, they'll still be supporting him when the ICBMs launch.

[smoltchanov]

Not enough to change things.

Short-term - this. Too many people, who either sees a government propaganda ONLY (on their TV screens) or simply doesn't want  to think. Long-term (say, in more then 6 month) - may be..

[Meclazine for Israel]

Depends on the percentage of people who want change.

Depends on the next 2 months and the result.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unlikely, Russia has never really know democracy for more than five minutes, they're used being ruled by strongmen and I think many Russians are resigned to it.

Generalisations like this are some way from the whole truth. Russia's history can in fact be better summarised as periods of liberalisation followed by ones of repression.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Its possible his base expands as people rally around the guy who is standing up to the "evil" countries that are punishing the Russian people. Things are going to look more and more nazi-like around Russia in the coming years.

[Sir Mohamed]

I for sure wish, though I have a hard time seeing this in the foreseeable future. Perhaps things change once Russia is stuck over more than a year in a quagmire similar to what 'Nam was to us.

As already stated, the biggest obstacle is massive repression of free and objective information and the extreme repressions against any demonstrators. Public opinion against Putin is useless unless people get out in the streets en masse. Organizing that is already difficult, with mass surveillance and draconian punishments.

Additionally, I believe Westerners tend to overestimate backlash and opposition to Putin. Majority of Russians are older and consume State TV propaganda. The opposition is mainly younger intellectuals living in larger cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[Badger]

Not enough to change things.

Short-term - this. Too many people, who either sees a government propaganda ONLY (on their TV screens) or simply doesn't want  to think. Long-term (say, in more then 6 month) - may be..

 This, though I am highly skeptical/pessimistic that it will be enough to matter. There simply is not going to be a successful grassroots movement to throw Putin out no matter how bad economic conditions get.  The crackdown will continue to be severe and will get as bad as it needs to be to restore order.

 There is the slight possibility of a coup, or Putin  Being kicked out like Kruschev was. But  Even that slight chance will depend relatively little on public opinion.

[Badger]

Unlikely, Russia has never really know democracy for more than five minutes, they're used being ruled by strongmen and I think many Russians are resigned to it.

Generalisations like this are some way from the whole truth. Russia's history can in fact be better summarised as periods of liberalisation followed by ones of repression.

 And yet even those periods of relative liberalization were also marked by a basically autocratic system.

[CumbrianLefty]

Additionally, I believe Westerners tend to overestimate backlash and opposition to Putin. Majority of Russians are older and consume State TV propaganda. The opposition is mainly younger intellectuals living in larger cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

This is easy to do, but if anything some posts here are veering excessively in the other direction.

For a start, saying opposition is limited to "liberals" in Moscow and St Petersburg doesn't take into account that there have already been significant anti-war demos in literally dozens of Russian cities.

And dissent is popping up in some quite unexpected places, despite the information blackout.

Be in no doubt, this war is not going as Putin wanted on the home front as well as the battlefield.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It perhaps already has, but the more relevant question is whether the Russian security forces' opinion has turned on Putin.

Recently I've been thinking though... Russia's last electoral type event was the Duma election in September 2021 and I started to wonder whether Putin had waited until the gap to the next national election (President in 2024) is as big as possible in case the Ukraine invasion goes south necessitating far more vote rigging than usual if an election had been much closer now.