Wheat price thread and effect on world

[lfromnj]

Wanted to keep a separate thread as this isn't that direct to Ukraine but can have major ramifications for the globe.

Discuss.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arab World governments are probably watching the wheat price with immense interest.

[lfromnj]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/surging-wheat-prices-to-spur-canada-farmers-to-sow-more-acres

Seems that American/Canadian farmers are shifting to produce more wheat as well. Ironically the provinces with mass farming in Canada have a lot of Ukranians.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ironically the provinces with mass farming in Canada have a lot of Ukranians.

Which likely isn't a coincidence tbh.

[lfromnj]

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/W_1:COM

Wheat futures are not pretty.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Arab World governments are probably watching the wheat price with immense interest.

Certainly some of them are - Lebanon is probably the most klaxon alarm of all - but a lot of them are going to be bailed out by high oil prices.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arab World governments are probably watching the wheat price with immense interest.

Certainly some of them are - Lebanon is probably the most klaxon alarm of all - but a lot of them are going to be bailed out by high oil prices.

That's true.
Egypt is probably the big one to look at here, given its overall food needs.
Ironic - Egypt was once the breadbasket of ancient Rome...and wheat from Egypt helped feed Rome.

[jaichind]

India is a big wheat producer and will benefit from this.  Of course that is more than wiped out many fold by the surge of energy prices impact on energy import prices although India will be able to lower the bill by importing Russian energy selling for discount.

[Torie]

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/W_1:COM

Wheat futures are not pretty.

What is the term of these futures?

[lfromnj]

India is a big wheat producer and will benefit from this.  Of course that is more than wiped out many fold by the surge of energy prices impact on energy import prices although India will be able to lower the bill by importing Russian energy selling for discount.

Which country is the biggest loser from lack of oil and wheat ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

India is a big wheat producer and will benefit from this.  Of course that is more than wiped out many fold by the surge of energy prices impact on energy import prices although India will be able to lower the bill by importing Russian energy selling for discount.

Which country is the biggest loser from lack of oil and wheat ?

Japan would be a major loser from higher than normal oil, gas and wheat prices. Not a lot of Westerners know this, but the 1973 oil embargo had a major and severely negative impact on the Japanese economy. Nowadays, it is still a huge oil importer, and it's also a major wheat importer. Japan in general imports roughly 90% of its wheat and upwards of 95% of its oil. I'm not aware of any developed hydrocarbon fields on Japanese soil.
I don't think South Korea is much different either.

[pppolitics]

Eat more rice!

[jaichind]

India is a big wheat producer and will benefit from this.  Of course that is more than wiped out many fold by the surge of energy prices impact on energy import prices although India will be able to lower the bill by importing Russian energy selling for discount.

Which country is the biggest loser from lack of oil and wheat ?

I would say Japan, ROK, and Turkey.  Indonesia is a big food importer but they are solid in terms of energy.   PRC is a big importer of both but they are small relative to the size of their food and energy markets.  Also, the PRC seems to have started to hoard food starting in 2019.  Some of it is because of the USA trade deal but they have gone beyond that.  Perhaps they knew something like this was coming ?

The impact on all this in Japan will be interesting to see.  Part of the "problem" in Japan is that consumers (especially from the pensioner class) refuse to accept any prices increase which means businesses could not raise wages.  This has been the situation since the late 1990s.  An external price shock, in theory, could break Japan out of it and the 2007-2008 world inflation surge potentially could have broken this but that was quickly followed by the Great Recession and worldwide deflation.  If the current world inflation surge goes on for a couple of years it could cause a large economic shift in Japan with huge impact on the pensioner class but good news for those in their 20s and 30s.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

India is a big wheat producer and will benefit from this.  Of course that is more than wiped out many fold by the surge of energy prices impact on energy import prices although India will be able to lower the bill by importing Russian energy selling for discount.

Which country is the biggest loser from lack of oil and wheat ?

I would say Japan, ROK, and Turkey.  Indonesia is a big food importer but they are solid in terms of energy.   PRC is a big importer of both but they are small relative to the size of their food and energy markets.  Also, the PRC seems to have started to hoard food starting in 2019.  Some of it is because of the USA trade deal but they have gone beyond that.  Perhaps they knew something like this was coming ?

The impact on all this in Japan will be interesting to see.  Part of the "problem" in Japan is that consumers (especially from the pensioner class) refuse to accept any prices increase which means businesses could not raise wages.  This has been the situation since the late 1990s.  An external price shock, in theory, could break Japan out of it and the 2007-2008 world inflation surge potentially could have broken this but that was quickly followed by the Great Recession and worldwide deflation.  If the current world inflation surge goes on for a couple of years it could cause a large economic shift in Japan with huge impact on the pensioner class but good news for those in their 20s and 30s.

I forgot about Turkey, but that makes sense.
Turkey gets a clear majority, perhaps even the vast majority, of its wheat from Russia; it just occurred to me that Russia could threaten wheat sales to Turkey as a bargaining chip.

[lfromnj]

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/07/we-need-bread-fears-in-middle-east-as-ukraine-russia-war-hits-wheat-imports

Yemen imports almost all of its Wheat!

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1500493319587213318

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1500873690107375620

[jaichind]

https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/high-flying-wheat-etf-runs-out-of-shares-amid-russo-ukrainian-war/a2381654

Wheat ETF runs out of shares

[ingemann]

Arab World governments are probably watching the wheat price with immense interest.

Certainly some of them are - Lebanon is probably the most klaxon alarm of all - but a lot of them are going to be bailed out by high oil prices.

That's true.
Egypt is probably the big one to look at here, given its overall food needs.
Ironic - Egypt was once the breadbasket of ancient Rome...and wheat from Egypt helped feed Rome.

Egypt had a far smaller population historical, when Napoleon invaded Egypt it had a smaller population than the Netherlands. If modern Egypt still had comparative population to Netherlands, it would still be a major food exporters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arab World governments are probably watching the wheat price with immense interest.

Certainly some of them are - Lebanon is probably the most klaxon alarm of all - but a lot of them are going to be bailed out by high oil prices.

That's true.
Egypt is probably the big one to look at here, given its overall food needs.
Ironic - Egypt was once the breadbasket of ancient Rome...and wheat from Egypt helped feed Rome.

Egypt had a far smaller population historical, when Napoleon invaded Egypt it had a smaller population than the Netherlands. If modern Egypt still had comparative population to Netherlands, it would still be a major food exporters.

I am aware of why it is now importing.
It is still a historical irony of course.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SarahTaber_bww/status/1504122889380978689

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/wa-country-hour/episodes/

If someone wants to do the research, this program will undoubtedly have a discussion on wheat, barley and other crop exports from Western Australia.

[jaichind]

FT reports Middle East bread prices have surged 70%

[PSOL]

Revolution time!

[dead0man]

Revolution time!

in Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, China, Iran, Belarus, and most of the -stans?