Which of the following countries will be EU members by 2040?

[Astatine]

Assuming the European Union will still exist by then and no "new" countries are created.

[CumbrianLefty]

I know its a bit of a "curveball" right now, but Russia should also be an option. Who knows, if Putin is removed in disgrace soon and his successors decide to pivot hard towards the West.....

[brucejoel99]

I know its a bit of a "curveball" right now, but Russia should also be an option. Who knows, if Putin is removed in disgrace soon and his successors decide to pivot hard towards the West.....

Step 1: Re-militarizing Europe spurs the EU to integrate militarily, reducing their dependence on American military power.

Step 2: EU relations with post-Putin Russia eventually thaw, while Europe remains independent from U.S. military interests.

Step 3: A remorseful post-Putin Russia pivots to Europe instead of China, integrating into the EU, now a global superpower.

Step 4: Russia is a superpower again, NATO's relevance is diminished, & America stands all-but-alone with, what, CANZUK?

Thank you, I'll be here all week.

[smoltchanov]

I know its a bit of a "curveball" right now, but Russia should also be an option. Who knows, if Putin is removed in disgrace soon and his successors decide to pivot hard towards the West.....

Especially because 2040 is 18 years from now. A lot of time, and, possibly - lot of political change

[Former President tack50]

Only Montenegro; but there's a small chance North Macedonia makes it too. I feel that once the war is over the EU will be way more reluctant to admit new members, and similarly support for joining the EU will go down on Eastern Europe.

As for the few Western European countries remaining, Switzerland is never ever joining the EU. The UK is also probably not rejoining any time soon. I can see Norwegian support for the EU spiking because of the war but again, it will go down. Iceland is the most realistic proposition but even they are unlikely to join.

If anything, a hypothetical independent Scotland is more likely than any of those.

[LabourJersey]

If Ukraine is split between East and West as a result of the war, West Ukraine would definitely be a member by 2040.

Montenegro and North Macedonia are also likely. Bosnia is possible but they have a lot of problems currently.

[CumbrianLefty]

Depending on how this crisis shakes out, UK (re)entry under this timescale might become more likely.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Serbia is least likely because of it's historical, cultural, and linguistic links to Russia even if Russia enters the post Putin era Serbia is still going to be more Russophobic

[Cassius]

The only realistic candidates are those who are in active talks for EU accession (ie not Turkey) and those who aren’t but would presumably have a fairly smooth path to entry (Norway, Iceland and Switzerland). The rest are all far too problematic to be entering the EU within that timespan, both in terms of their internal and foreign affairs, barring some sort of miracle.

[vitoNova]

North Macedonia.  But I refuse to call it that.

It will forever be known as the 'Vardar Republic' deep in my heart.

[NewYorkExpress]

If the UK splits up, I would suspect that both Scotland and Northern Ireland would enter the EU fairly quickly. Other than that, I don't think anyone is particularly likely, and I think it's more likely countries leave the EU AND NATO, especially those in Eastern Europe, as Putin has now shown he really doesn't care about whether NATO will defend one of their own from invasion.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the UK splits up, I would suspect that both Scotland and Northern Ireland would enter the EU fairly quickly. Other than that, I don't think anyone is particularly likely, and I think it's more likely countries leave the EU AND NATO, especially those in Eastern Europe, as Putin has now shown he really doesn't care about whether NATO will defend one of their own from invasion.

Bad take on just about every level.