When did Republicans lose Bush/Bush/Obama voters?

[GregTheGreat657]

I'd say sometime around 2006/07 when Bush had become unpopular for Iraq

[Bootes Void]

The Bush/Bush/Obama voters tend to be minorities, suburbanites and WWC who are not very socially conservative. I would have said McCain could have a better showing with these demographics if he had run with a better VP and a campaign that would appeal less to "redneck populism"

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

[darklordoftech]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

This. Additionally, Obama’s appeal to college-educated voters might have convinced some college-educated Bush voters to vote for him.

[NotSoLucky]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

Bizzarely, Obama performed worse than John Kerry in Louisiana in 2008. Kerry won 42.3% while Obama won 39.9% and barely didn't break 40%.

My only guess is that there was some racial resentment from rural whites. Despite Hillary endorsing his campaign, it seemed that a decent chunk of her southern white supporters (many of them voted for her husband Bill in 92/96) stayed home or even switched to McCain in the general :/

[WPADEM]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

[Alben Barkley]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

Bizzarely, Obama performed worse than John Kerry in Louisiana in 2008. Kerry won 42.3% while Obama won 39.9% and barely didn't break 40%.

My only guess is that there was some racial resentment from rural whites. Despite Hillary endorsing his campaign, it seemed that a decent chunk of her southern white supporters (many of them voted for her husband Bill in 92/96) stayed home or even switched to McCain in the general :/

There was also a big displacement of black voters in LA between 2004 and 2008 resulting from Katrina. But yeah that’s probably part of it too; it’s even more dramatic if you look at Arkansas, which Kerry came within single digits of winning and where Hillary was polling well ahead of McCain, yet Obama got blown out.

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

My entire county was a Bush/Bush/Obama county and I personally know many such voters including multiple family members. Mostly educated white suburbanites. The shift of that demographic leftward was accelerated significantly by Trump but it was already well underway by this point.

Plus how exactly do you think Obama won the presidency after two Bush wins, including even a state like Indiana where Bush beat Kerry in a landslide, without many voters switching from Bush to Obama?

[WPADEM]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

Bizzarely, Obama performed worse than John Kerry in Louisiana in 2008. Kerry won 42.3% while Obama won 39.9% and barely didn't break 40%.

My only guess is that there was some racial resentment from rural whites. Despite Hillary endorsing his campaign, it seemed that a decent chunk of her southern white supporters (many of them voted for her husband Bill in 92/96) stayed home or even switched to McCain in the general :/

There was also a big displacement of black voters in LA between 2004 and 2008 resulting from Katrina. But yeah that’s probably part of it too; it’s even more dramatic if you look at Arkansas, which Kerry came within single digits of winning and where Hillary was polling well ahead of McCain, yet Obama got blown out.

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

My entire county was a Bush/Bush/Obama county and I personally know many such voters including multiple family members. Mostly educated white suburbanites. The shift of that demographic leftward was accelerated significantly by Trump but it was already well underway by this point.

Plus how exactly do you think Obama won the presidency after two Bush wins, including even a state like Indiana where Bush beat Kerry in a landslide, without many voters switching from Bush to Obama?

There definitely were some, but no where near the 9 million or so Obama 12 Trump 16 voters. But there were a number of Bush-Bush-Obama voters in the Midwest.

Obama won in 2008 due to exhaustion with the GOP after Bush II, Working Class voters still having a lot of loyalty to the Democratic party, and Obama bringing out and engaging a lot of new voters who had become politically aware during the Bush II Presidency. He won Indiana thanks to an unprecedented ground game and voter registration drive. The GOP stood little chance in 2008, the Recession really broke open the floodgates for the Democrats to gain a lot of ground.

Too bad they couldn't sustain it. 

[Mr. Smith]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

There were, and then some. You're just too young I guess.

[NotSoLucky]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

Bizzarely, Obama performed worse than John Kerry in Louisiana in 2008. Kerry won 42.3% while Obama won 39.9% and barely didn't break 40%.

My only guess is that there was some racial resentment from rural whites. Despite Hillary endorsing his campaign, it seemed that a decent chunk of her southern white supporters (many of them voted for her husband Bill in 92/96) stayed home or even switched to McCain in the general :/

There was also a big displacement of black voters in LA between 2004 and 2008 resulting from Katrina. But yeah that’s probably part of it too; it’s even more dramatic if you look at Arkansas, which Kerry came within single digits of winning and where Hillary was polling well ahead of McCain, yet Obama got blown out.

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

My entire county was a Bush/Bush/Obama county and I personally know many such voters including multiple family members. Mostly educated white suburbanites. The shift of that demographic leftward was accelerated significantly by Trump but it was already well underway by this point.

Plus how exactly do you think Obama won the presidency after two Bush wins, including even a state like Indiana where Bush beat Kerry in a landslide, without many voters switching from Bush to Obama?

There definitely were some, but no where near the 9 million or so Obama 12 Trump 16 voters. But there were a number of them in the Midwest.

Obama won in 2008 due to exhaustion with the GOP after Bush II, Working Class voters still having a lot of loyalty to the Democratic party, and Obama bringing out and engaging a lot of new voters who had become politically aware during the Bush II Presidency. He won Indiana thanks to an unprecedented ground game and voter registration drive. The GOP stood little chance in 2008, the Recession really broke open the floodgates for the Democrats to gain a lot of ground.

Too bad they couldn't sustain it.

I think a major factor was also that Obama himself was from the Midwest. The Chicago metropolitan area spills into Indiana, and the St Louis and Quad Cities metropolitan areas spill into Illinois, so he did better in Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri than any democrat since.

[Mr. Smith]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

Bizzarely, Obama performed worse than John Kerry in Louisiana in 2008. Kerry won 42.3% while Obama won 39.9% and barely didn't break 40%.

My only guess is that there was some racial resentment from rural whites. Despite Hillary endorsing his campaign, it seemed that a decent chunk of her southern white supporters (many of them voted for her husband Bill in 92/96) stayed home or even switched to McCain in the general :/

There was also a big displacement of black voters in LA between 2004 and 2008 resulting from Katrina. But yeah that’s probably part of it too; it’s even more dramatic if you look at Arkansas, which Kerry came within single digits of winning and where Hillary was polling well ahead of McCain, yet Obama got blown out.

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

My entire county was a Bush/Bush/Obama county and I personally know many such voters including multiple family members. Mostly educated white suburbanites. The shift of that demographic leftward was accelerated significantly by Trump but it was already well underway by this point.

Plus how exactly do you think Obama won the presidency after two Bush wins, including even a state like Indiana where Bush beat Kerry in a landslide, without many voters switching from Bush to Obama?

There definitely were some, but no where near the 9 million or so Obama 12 Trump 16 voters. But there were a number of Bush-Bush-Obama voters in the Midwest.

Obama won in 2008 due to exhaustion with the GOP after Bush II, Working Class voters still having a lot of loyalty to the Democratic party, and Obama bringing out and engaging a lot of new voters who had become politically aware during the Bush II Presidency. He won Indiana thanks to an unprecedented ground game and voter registration drive. The GOP stood little chance in 2008, the Recession really broke open the floodgates for the Democrats to gain a lot of ground.

Too bad they couldn't sustain it. 

2004 -2008 was a R+2 -> D+7 shift

2012-> 2016 was a D+4 -> D+2 shift

You can't seriously tell me the population grew so much over Obama that such a minor shift could actually mean more voters.

[Smash255]

Katrina was a key factor and something Bush never really recovered from.  Iraq and the financial collapse just added to it and destroyed any chance of recovering from the fallout of Katrina, but that was certainly the domino that started it all.

[Redban]

Just from my memory, living through the Bush-years, I think people turned on him hard in 2005. I was young then, but I remember that people began to talk a lot of trash about Bush from that point.

Looking at Gallup -- Bush's disapproval dipped to 56% in August 2005 (Katrina), and he never seemed to recover. He never had below-50% disapproval afterwards. So Katrina does seem like the beginning

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx

[Person Man]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

There were millions.

[Calthrina950]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

There were millions.

How else can we explain Obama flipping nine states Bush won in 2004? Or the double-digit landslides he won in states such as Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Bush came within single digits? Yes, there was a major increase in turnout, and Obama won a majority of the first-time voters, but he clearly flipped many Bush voters as well.

[WPADEM]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

There were millions.

How else can we explain Obama flipping nine states Bush won in 2004? Or the double-digit landslides he won in states such as Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Bush came within single digits? Yes, there was a major increase in turnout, and Obama won a majority of the first-time voters, but he clearly flipped many Bush voters as well.

Ok. I guess there were a lot more than I realize. Do you think the Bush-Bush-Obama voters were more Working Class, with ancestral Democratic ties? Or something else?

[Calthrina950]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

There were millions.

How else can we explain Obama flipping nine states Bush won in 2004? Or the double-digit landslides he won in states such as Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Bush came within single digits? Yes, there was a major increase in turnout, and Obama won a majority of the first-time voters, but he clearly flipped many Bush voters as well.

Ok. I guess there were a lot more than I realize. Do you think the Bush-Bush-Obama voters were more Working Class, with ancestral Democratic ties? Or something else?

A mix of the two. Obama did win many working-class and rural voters. He carried Indiana, in part, because of significantly outperforming John Kerry in the state's rural areas and small towns. That also explains much of the Obama strength throughout the remainder of the rural Midwest, particularly in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, but also in the Dakotas (where he came within single digits) and in Missouri, which McCain won by less than 4,000 votes. But Obama also won over many moderate and independent suburbanites who had gone for Bush twice, and who had previously voted Republican.

He was the first Democrat to win suburban counties like Arapahoe and Jefferson (Colorado), as well as Loudoun and Prince William (Virginia), and Chester (Pennsylvania), since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first to carry many of the Collar Counties of Chicago (such as Kane, DuPage, McHenry, and Kendall) since the nineteenth century. Obama also significantly improved over Kerry in the Atlanta suburbs, laying the groundwork for their eventual flip into the Democratic fold by Clinton and Biden.

[WPADEM]

I don't think there were too many of these voters.

There were millions.

How else can we explain Obama flipping nine states Bush won in 2004? Or the double-digit landslides he won in states such as Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Bush came within single digits? Yes, there was a major increase in turnout, and Obama won a majority of the first-time voters, but he clearly flipped many Bush voters as well.

Ok. I guess there were a lot more than I realize. Do you think the Bush-Bush-Obama voters were more Working Class, with ancestral Democratic ties? Or something else?

A mix of the two. Obama did win many working-class and rural voters. He carried Indiana, in part, because of significantly outperforming John Kerry in the state's rural areas and small towns. That also explains much of the Obama strength throughout the remainder of the rural Midwest, particularly in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, but also in the Dakotas (where he came within single digits) and in Missouri, which McCain won by less than 4,000 votes. But Obama also won over many moderate and independent suburbanites who had gone for Bush twice, and who had previously voted Republican.

He was the first Democrat to win suburban counties like Arapahoe and Jefferson (Colorado), as well as Loudoun and Prince William (Virginia), and Chester (Pennsylvania), since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first to carry many of the Collar Counties of Chicago (such as Kane, DuPage, McHenry, and Kendall) since the nineteenth century. Obama also significantly improved over Kerry in the Atlanta suburbs, laying the groundwork for their eventual flip into the Democratic fold by Clinton and Biden.

I think this was a major group of Bush-Obama voters. The GOP seemed very dominant in 2005, yet fell very hard during Bush's second term. The financial crisis really caused the bottom to fall out for the GOP in the 2008 campaign, though polarization (and dare I say Palin) prevented a wipeout. Which left the GOP in a position to rise again and much sooner than most would have guessed.

[Pres Mike]

It wasn't at any one point. They bled them fairly consistently from Katrina, Iraq dragging on, the financial collapse and probably lost a few as early as Bush's botched Social Security privatization attempt.

My only guess is that there was some racial resentment from rural whites. Despite Hillary

You guess?

I thought this was the universal consensus since Obama did 10 points better in every state except for states like Louisana or Tennessee where he went backwards