2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NH-SEN R for Bolduc!

Uncalled:

RI-GOV D
RI-Treasurer D
NH-1 R
NH-2 R

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Now ~1900 vote margin for Bolduc

[Not Me, Us]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

Yep

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

Maybe not entirely, but I feel comfortable saying the path for Bolduc is conspicuously narrower than it would be for Morse.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NH-1 R for Leavitt!
Calling RI-GOV D for McKee!


Uncalled:
RI-Treasurer D
NH-2 R

[Minnesota Mike]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

I wouldn't say safe but Democrats are not unhappy he won.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1569888453235466241?s=46&t=yY8pJPFmnv_...

[Roll Roons]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

Not sure I'd go that far yet, but she is looking like a clear favorite.

[Gracile]

Burns took the lead from Hansel in NH-02.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NH-2 R for Burns!
Calling RI-Treasurer D for Diossa!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

Not sure I'd go that far yet, but she is looking like a clear favorite.

I wonder if it will affect 538.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So Bolduc makes this race pretty much safe for Hassan, right?

Not sure I'd go that far yet, but she is looking like a clear favorite.

I wonder if it will affect 538.

Possibly depending on stuff like fundraising that they consider.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Seems like there wasn't anything unexpected out of New Hampshire except perhaps the overperformance of Lily Tang Williams in NH-02. It'd be nice if she somehow won but despite ticking up with the last updates it looks like Burns is going to take it.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Republicans could've gotten Sununu but ended up with Bolduc- well this is now Likely D. Honestly Colorado looks like a more promising pickup now.

[Pink Panther]

Honestly, I'm not sure there's been a worse recruitment of candidates in modern history as a whole than this batch of GOP Senate Candidates. This has blown out Obama level recruitment out of the water at this point. Yeah, Dobbs and Biden's rise in popularity hurts as well, but you have got to imagine just how many winnable races the GOP blew this year by choosing some terrible candidates in key races?

[kwabbit]

Seems like there wasn't anything unexpected out of New Hampshire except perhaps the overperformance of Lily Tang Williams in NH-02. It'd be nice if she somehow won but despite ticking up with the last updates it looks like Burns is going to take it.

The NH-Sen primary was a little closer than I expected but isn't going to be close enough to have been enthralling. Bolduc's up by 3.3, it'll probably tick down to +2, but that's nothing major.

Edit: DDHQ has Bolduc +1.2. Quite close.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's early, but Senate Primary turnout is tight. If the Dems pull it out, this would be their first (and only) turnout win in a competitive state.

This didn't hold by the way. GOP is crushing it now with 59.11% of the primary turnout, might go over 60% when everything is in. Firmly keeps the race on the map for them - This is a stronger GOP performance than Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana or Nevada.

[Lief 🗽]

NH is a good microcosm of what's happening with the GOP nationally right now. In a midterm, the out-party should be picking up NH's senate seat and its two house seats. 2006 and 2010 in particular were bloodbaths in this state. And it's popular "moderate" governor should be running for Senate and locking the race up as a safe pickup. But the deranged primary voters nominated horrible candidates, and now all three seats are Lean Dem at worst.

[Xing]

So is the NH GOP primary really over? It’s looking very close…

[kwabbit]

So is the NH GOP primary really over? It’s looking very close…

I think it’s over in an AZ 2020 sort of sense. Called too early by many people, but won’t end up biting them. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Bolduc <1, since the remaining towns should be friendly to Morse, but I don’t think there’s a serious chance of Morse winning.

[Minnesota Mike]

It's early, but Senate Primary turnout is tight. If the Dems pull it out, this would be their first (and only) turnout win in a competitive state.

This didn't hold by the way. GOP is crushing it now with 59.11% of the primary turnout, might go over 60% when everything is in. Firmly keeps the race on the map for them - This is a stronger GOP performance than Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana or Nevada.

No. Just no. There were zero competitive Dem races, Republicans had competitive races for Sen and both House seats. Turnout means nothing in a situation like this.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's early, but Senate Primary turnout is tight. If the Dems pull it out, this would be their first (and only) turnout win in a competitive state.

This didn't hold by the way. GOP is crushing it now with 59.11% of the primary turnout, might go over 60% when everything is in. Firmly keeps the race on the map for them - This is a stronger GOP performance than Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana or Nevada.

No. Just no. There were zero competitive Dem races, Republicans had competitive races for Sen and both House seats. Turnout means nothing in a situation like this.

Same was true in several of the states where turnout was tighter

[UncleSam]

It's early, but Senate Primary turnout is tight. If the Dems pull it out, this would be their first (and only) turnout win in a competitive state.

This didn't hold by the way. GOP is crushing it now with 59.11% of the primary turnout, might go over 60% when everything is in. Firmly keeps the race on the map for them - This is a stronger GOP performance than Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana or Nevada.

No. Just no. There were zero competitive Dem races, Republicans had competitive races for Sen and both House seats. Turnout means nothing in a situation like this.

Ya unlike some other states, this is the correct take. NH is the perfect storm of A. Contested GOP primaries B. No contested Dem primaries C. Open primaries to independents and D. Highly educated population. There’s no reason to think that primary turnout is any indicator of general election performance in NH.

I do think that some of the other results are more meaningful than many here would like to admit, however (I.e. Rs getting 60%+ in OH, handily outpacing Dems in FL and NC, etc.). Just NH isn’t one of them.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Ironically, on the GOP side, we saw a bit of a return to sanity in the downballot. Most of the secessionists outright lost their primaries. There are only two left in the caucus.

Sylvia, Silber, and Hough, who Sununu specifically anti-endorsed due to their role in the Gunstock crisis, also lost.

Interestingly enough, liberty-minded rep Michael Yakubovich seems to have defeated Barbara Griffin, the head of the Redistricting Committee, in SD-16. She wound up drawing this district, gerrymandering a Democrat out so she could run in it. He will probably walk to victory. Not a lot of surprises, except Dave DeVoy's surprisingly strong performance in SD-2.

Race ratings should be out soon.