2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Mexican Wolf]

Masters is leading by 6% in the Senate race over Lamon, with Brnovich in third.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As much as it would anger certain portions of their base (though how big that base really is has been significantly questioned tonight), I think the smart play for the GOP would be to urge states to protect abortion in cases of rape, incest, life of the mother, and during the first trimester, while strongly opposing allowance for later abortions. Make Dems defend later, elective abortions, which polling consistently shows is a tough argument for them to make, and take the early/non-elective cases off the table to deprive Dems of their biggest attack line.

[roxas11]

The results in Kansas would scare the heck out of me if I was the republicans because it basically confirms that the Dems were right about the Voter backlash over killing Roe v Wade

The GOP should have just left Roe v Wade alone...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I hope Meijer loses because I'd rather that seat be held by a Democrat and it would be easier for Scholten to be Gibbs in this environment.

Idk. I'm increasingly just Pro anything that will halt the increasingly authoritarian bent to the right in this country and harming their Supreme leaders ego, Drumpf, is probably the best way to do that.

I'm a Socialist ffs but when your Democracy is this close to collapse I'll put up with Republicans like Kinzinger, Meijer, Cheney, etc who at least aren't actively trying to bring down our Democratic institutions for their fascistic view of the world.

[GALeftist]

I hope Meijer holds on, even though it will make the seat harder to flip. Having the courage and integrity to stand up for what’s right needs to be rewarded.

I understand the impulse but if the only place pro-impeachment Republicans can win is in Biden territory that's practically no better than not having them at all imo.

[Mexican Wolf]

Hobbs got the call already from CNN.

[Senator Incitatus]

The results in Kansas would scare the heck out of me if I was the republicans because it basically confirms that the Dems were right about the Voter backlash over killing Roe v Wade

The GOP should have just left Roe v Wade alone...

As I'm sure you're aware, the Republican Party did not decide Dobbs. I'm sure they'd have held off until the election if they could have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good Lake is losing D's rather run against Robson than Lake anyways, D's voted for Robson in the primary anyways

Traggy got this wrong they said Lake was winning 48/39 plse

ROBSON 50/40

Polls EPIC FAIL AGAIN

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1554663270505742336?s=20&t=VlFZgOnZUFoE...

Also goes on to say that the E-Day and early vote didn't split that much.

Fellas... I think we may need to change the narrative I was arguing about with certain idiots earlier today ("Hurr durr Oz will win by double digits because polls bad and muh fundamentals mean red wave!") to a blue wave now being at least as likely as a red wave.

[Alben Barkley]

As much as it would anger certain portions of their base (though how big that base really is has been significantly questioned tonight), I think the smart play for the GOP would be to urge states to protect abortion in cases of rape, incest, life of the mother, and during the first trimester, while strongly opposing allowance for later abortions. Make Dems defend later, elective abortions, which polling consistently shows is a tough argument for them to make, and take the early/non-elective cases off the table to deprive Dems of their biggest attack line.

That would indeed be the smart thing to do, which means Republicans will never do it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

This sounds too strong.  The GE won't be a single issue abortion vote!  This could push it back to boring R-leaning year from R blowout, but the economy still matters.  I do have the senate as too close to call, but that's because they have 2 candidates in swing states who appear to be blowing it.

Though MI Republicans really could be in trouble given this issue is on the ballot

True, and Tudor Dixon spoke in favor of a total ban without sexual assault exceptions.  That's going to be truly out of the mainstream in Michigan.

[Alben Barkley]

Robson winning big in the early results from AZ. Leading by nine points statewide, ten in Maricopa. Going to be hard for Lake to overcome that.

Dark Brandon RN:

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling AZ-GOV D for Hobbs!
Calling AZ-1 D for Hodge!
Calling AZ-1 R for Schweikert!
Calling AZ-9 R for Gosar!
Calling AZ-Treasurer R for Yee!

Uncalled:

AZ-GOV R
AZ-SEN R
AZ-SOS R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-2 R
AZ-4 R
AZ-6 D
AZ-6 R
AZ-7 R
AZ-AG R
AZ-Superintendent R
MO-SEN D
MO-1 R
MO-5 R
MO-6 D
MO-7 R
MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R

[Senator Incitatus]

As my last few posts will indicate, I'm surprised by the result in Arizona so far, particularly Lamon and Robson (albeit Robson by less than her statewide margin) leading in the two border counties to report.

[Crumpets]

Not sure if this has already been posted, but initial results are pretty good for Republicans in WA, with Murray only up ~5 over Smiley. Those results will almost certainly improve for Murray over the next couple of days, but both parties will probably treat this as a competitive election, albeit with Murray heavily favored.

[Utah Neolib]

Red Eagle Politics must be melting down right now

[Morning in Atlas]

As I've said before, Levin's loss in MI-11 is a major blow to the peace movement. It was a full-on mobilization by AIPAC - which has grown to represent the right's vision for what Israel should be - against a candidate that wanted a two-state solution and a more diplomatic approach in the Middle East. It involved a deluge of outside spending, and an outright excuse of anti-Semitic attacks against Levin by Haley Stevens.

https://twitter.com/EgSophie/status/1487071654123560962?t=c-1a_PJMLF9ixZQ7L4LYww...

For the unaware, AIPAC's former president put out a fundraising email calling Levin a self-hating Jew. At the very least, he accused him of being Omar/Tlaib's token Jew that they use for cover. I don't think I need to explain the anti-Semitic canards here - they're obvious to see for everyone.

Stevens refused to condemn this, and when asked about Victor's comments, called him an important mentor in her early days. Since then, Stevens has come out against the Iran deal and has yet to sponsor a two-state solution.

Just incredibly disturbing stuff. It was gross when Nina did it and it was gross when Victor did it. The fact that she won't condemn one of her allies using anti-Semitic canards to attack a Jewish congressman is beyond disqualifying for office. At the very least, she's an apologist for anti-Semitism, and unlike what the mods might say I don't believe it's "excessively hyperbolic" to call her an anti-Semite herself.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not sure if this has already been posted, but initial results are pretty good for Republicans in WA, with Murray only up ~5 over Smiley. Those results will almost certainly improve for Murray over the next couple of days, but both parties will probably treat this as a competitive election, albeit with Murray heavily favored.

Nothing in yet from King county. Patience.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling WA-SEN for Murray and Smiley!
Calling WA-SOS Slot 1 for Hobbs!
Calling WA-2 Slot 1 for Larsen!
Calling WA-5 Slot 1 for Rodgers!
Calling WA-6 Slot 1 for Kilmer!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-1
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3
WA-4
WA-5 Slot 2
WA-6 Slot 2
WA-7
WA-8
WA-9
WA-10
AZ-GOV R
AZ-SEN R
AZ-SOS R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-2 R
AZ-4 R
AZ-6 D
AZ-6 R
AZ-7 R
AZ-AG R
AZ-Superintendent R
MO-SEN D
MO-1 R
MO-5 R
MO-6 D
MO-7 R
MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R

[RI]

Welp, my district's first numbers are way left of where I thought they'd be. GG

[Alben Barkley]

IF Meijer wins, Lake loses, AND the KS abortion amendment goes down in flames, this has to be the worst night for Donald Trump since November 2020 right?

If so, this be me right now:

“He gazed up at the enormous face. Two years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the goofy gaze. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two bourbon-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Dark Brandon.”

[Skill and Chance]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise.  

[Crumpets]

Not sure if this has already been posted, but initial results are pretty good for Republicans in WA, with Murray only up ~5 over Smiley. Those results will almost certainly improve for Murray over the next couple of days, but both parties will probably treat this as a competitive election, albeit with Murray heavily favored.

Nothing in yet from King county. Patience.

Ah, didn't see that. Good call.

[Gracile]

Not sure if this has already been posted, but initial results are pretty good for Republicans in WA, with Murray only up ~5 over Smiley. Those results will almost certainly improve for Murray over the next couple of days, but both parties will probably treat this as a competitive election, albeit with Murray heavily favored.

Murray is now up by about 12 points over Smiley as some of the more Democratic counties (Snohomish, Thurston) have come in.