2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Nyvin]

I do think No is going to win at this point, but I think some of you are having extreme overreactions to the margin so far; I expect it will narrow significantly.

What makes you expect that? It’s certainly not the voting patterns thus far.

It literally narrowed by a point in the minute since I posted this. There's a lot of election-day vote still out.

Yes might "possibly" crack 40% if the rest of the vote goes it's way, but that's hardly any meaningful victory.

A lot of those western rural counties are pretty empty.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I love how I still beat NBC on calling the amendment even coming in late

Are we getting results from Arizona?

at 11

[Cyrusman]

I’m not really sure why so many people seem shocked the “No” vote passed in KS and that all those trump counties went in the direction of “no”. Not every Republican is a religious person who cares about abortion in a sense of taking it away. There’s plenty of pro choice republicans who are conservative for fiscal issues, immigration, energy, crime, but don’t support abortion bans and are pro choice. Kansas along with many other Midwestern states is conservative but not so much so for abortion/religious reason. It’s conservative for the other reasons I outlined. This isn’t Alabama.
Also this very different than a congressional race between D and R in which you are voting for a number of issues.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well at least voters got to decide rather than unelected justices

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

[Alben Barkley]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

I can't tell you how much I respect you for saying this. I mean it!

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not really sure why so many people seem shocked the “No” vote passed in KS and that all those trump counties went in the direction of “no”. Not every Republican is a religious person who cares about abortion in a sense of taking it away. There’s plenty of pro choice republicans who are conservative for fiscal issues, immigration, energy, crime, but don’t support abortion bans and are pro choice. Kansas along with many other Midwestern states is conservative but not so much so for abortion/religious reason. It’s conservative for the other reasons I outlined. This isn’t Alabama.
Also this very different than a congressional race between D and R in which you are voting for a number of issues.

This is a state which has sent many pro-choice Democrats to Topeka, so it’s not surprising that "No" won. It’s the margin that is giving many people pause (and for good reason).

[Koharu]

I cannot believe that I am to the right of nearly 40% of Trump voters in KS on this issue. That is just hard to believe.

Think about it this way: Let's say that this vote was about gun ownership as a constitutional right. The amendment itself wouldn't make gun ownership illegal, nor would it really even change laws about gun ownership. However, it would no longer provide a right to gun ownership. While, of course, proposed legislation could be just minor restrictions, without the protection of gun ownership being a right, you would fear it paving the way for a complete ban, right? It's the same with this.

Add on the fact that a large portion of Americans, including Republicans, believe that abortion should be an option in certain circumstances, and this outcome makes more sense. It's not that these voters are significantly pro-choice, it's that they realize that getting rid of the constitutional protection makes it possible for a total ban, even if that's not at all what would actually come forward as legislation. And since Republicans are pushing for total bans without any sort of exceptions whatsoever, it makes sense to be concerned that would be what would happen if this had passed.

While I don't know where you fall on the spectrum of allowing abortions for the health of the mother or in cases of rape etc, it doesn't particularly matter, as this vote isn't an indicator of position in the way you seem to think it is. Even though the amendment itself is mild, it opens the door to a total ban, and that's unpalatable to most Americans.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My guess is Dems will use a ballot measure strategy on this issue from now on as that will make it hard for the GOP in those races to try to avoid it

[Horus]

This is a very male heavy forum and I think some of us, perhaps myself included, underestimated just how angry so many women are right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1554649994837127169

[Alben Barkley]

I’m not really sure why so many people seem shocked the “No” vote passed in KS and that all those trump counties went in the direction of “no”. Not every Republican is a religious person who cares about abortion in a sense of taking it away. There’s plenty of pro choice republicans who are conservative for fiscal issues, immigration, energy, crime, but don’t support abortion bans and are pro choice. Kansas along with many other Midwestern states is conservative but not so much so for abortion/religious reason. It’s conservative for the other reasons I outlined. This isn’t Alabama.
Also this very different than a congressional race between D and R in which you are voting for a number of issues.

Kansas was the home of the Westboro Baptist Church, George Tiller who was assassinated by pro-birth extremists in his own church, and numerous other examples of pro-birth extremism.

This is a massive, MASSIVE defeat for pro-birthers tonight. There is no getting around it, no suddenly pretending Kansas was some "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" bastion before tonight. No. Not at all. It's just smug Samuel Alito and the rest of his Christo-fascist court are WILDLY out of step with American public opinion. And now your party is paying the political price. Rightfully so.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

NYT Calls it for No!

[Cyrusman]

I’m not really sure why so many people seem shocked the “No” vote passed in KS and that all those trump counties went in the direction of “no”. Not every Republican is a religious person who cares about abortion in a sense of taking it away. There’s plenty of pro choice republicans who are conservative for fiscal issues, immigration, energy, crime, but don’t support abortion bans and are pro choice. Kansas along with many other Midwestern states is conservative but not so much so for abortion/religious reason. It’s conservative for the other reasons I outlined. This isn’t Alabama.
Also this very different than a congressional race between D and R in which you are voting for a number of issues.

This is a state which has sent many pro-choice Democrats to Topeka, so it’s not surprising that "No" won. It’s the margin that is giving many people pause (and for good reason).

I’m really not that surprised. I’m sure plenty of republicans voted no on this. While the Republican politicians may not reflect it there are plenty of pro choice republicans outside of the south, and in a situation like this where they have a vote on one single issue and that’s literally it why would they vote to outlaw and ban abortion?
It’s different than a D vs R race where these same pro choice republicans may not agree with their Republican candidate on their abortion stance but they do for literally everything else so they end up voting R.

[Minnesota Mike]

Gibbs just did better on a dump from Kent county (election day?). Went from 7% to 15% in and his lead increased a tiny bit.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I mean is this that different from Medicaid expansion referedums where if the emphasis is on one issue they all vote for it.

[Mexican Wolf]

I mean is this that different from Medicaid expansion referedums where if the emphasis is on one issue they all vote for it.

That's probably the best comparison to make.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Proof that theocratic right-wing Conservatives are in the minority and that if regular Americans actually turn out and vote we can win. Just a tiny bit of hope restored in my country today.

[Senator Incitatus]

This is a very male heavy forum and I think some of us, perhaps myself included, underestimated just how angry so many women are right now.

You're not giving this forum's male users enough credit for their remarkable ability to sympathize with women.

[Ferguson97]

This is a very male heavy forum and I think some of us, perhaps myself included, underestimated just how angry so many women are right now.

Yup. I rolled by eyes whenever people like Ayatollah smugly claimed that only partisans cared about abortion. Nonsensical.

[Morning in Atlas]

Because Kansans value both women
and children, the constitution of the
state of Kansas does not require
government funding of abortion
and does not create or secure a
right to abortion. To the extent
permitted by the constitution of the
United States, the people, through
their elected state representatives
and state senators, may pass laws
regarding abortion, including, but
not limited to, laws that account
for circumstances of pregnancy
resulting from rape or incest, or
circumstances of necessity to save
the life of the mother

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf


Yah this was a misleading question

L

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

This sounds too strong.  The GE won't be a single issue abortion vote!  This could push it back to boring R-leaning year from R blowout, but the economy still matters.  I do have the senate as too close to call, but that's because they have 2 candidates in swing states who appear to be blowing it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

This sounds too strong.  The GE won't be a single issue abortion vote!  This could push it back to boring R-leaning year from R blowout, but the economy still matters.  I do have the senate as too close to call, but that's because they have 2 candidates in swing states who appear to be blowing it.

Though MI Republicans really could be in trouble given this issue is on the ballot

[Mexican Wolf]

Busch Valentine has maintained a solid 6% to 10% lead against Kunce for most of the night so far. Seems pretty likely to me she'll be the nominee.

[Yoda]

My guess is Dems will use a ballot measure strategy on this issue from now on as that will make it hard for the GOP in those races to try to avoid it

Yup. Stay tuned for Ohio in 2024. If it can pass with 60% in Kansas, it can hit 65% in Ohio. Senator Sherrod Brown thanks the extremist republican operatives on SCOTUS for handing him reelection in '24.