2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Barnette didn't do better in Montco. On one hand, she's gone crazy and Montco Rs tend to be more moderate, but she also has her 'base' there and the most fans you'd think b/c she ran in 2020 here.

[Greedo punched first]

Why did Barnette win Potter County?

[wbrocks67]

So if the 32k for GOP is correct, Dems have about ~73k mail-ins left to count.

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1526963114138288129

[Cyrusman]

Does anyone have the numbers of overall turnout in previous PA primaries where there were federal races involved? I’m interested to compare the party turnaround

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have the numbers of overall turnout in previous PA primaries where there were federal races involved? I’m interested to compare the party turnaround

2016 Senate

Democratic: 1,575,922 (54.0%)
Republican: 1,342,941 (46.0%) (unopposed)

2018 Senate

Democratic: 752,008 (52.2%) (unopposed)
Republican: 687,430 (47.8%)

I'd have to look back further though for when both sides had competitive primaries. Even this year, it's not total apples to apples because Shapiro was unopposed

[Pyro]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526969639086989313

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Are we entirely sure that McCormick barely winning on mail-in ballots and Oz and, more importantly, Trump making a big fuss about the 'stolen' election isn't the best possible scenario for Fetterman?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Does anyone have the numbers of overall turnout in previous PA primaries where there were federal races involved? I’m interested to compare the party turnaround

2016 Senate

Democratic: 1,575,922 (54.0%)
Republican: 1,342,941 (46.0%) (unopposed)

2018 Senate

Democratic: 752,008 (52.2%) (unopposed)
Republican: 687,430 (47.8%)

I'd have to look back further though for when both sides had competitive primaries. Even this year, it's not total apples to apples because Shapiro was unopposed

2022 Senate

Republican: 1,319,452 (52.6%)
Democratic: 1,186,333 (47.4%)

Not bad for the Dems since they had a relatively non-competitive Senate primary and no Gubernatorial primary while the GOP had a complete clown car in both.

[brucejoel99]

STOP THE STEAL
https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1526954652494962688

Does this mean that Trump might not endorse McCormick if McCormick ends up winning?

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have the numbers of overall turnout in previous PA primaries where there were federal races involved? I’m interested to compare the party turnaround

2016 Senate

Democratic: 1,575,922 (54.0%)
Republican: 1,342,941 (46.0%) (unopposed)

2018 Senate

Democratic: 752,008 (52.2%) (unopposed)
Republican: 687,430 (47.8%)

I'd have to look back further though for when both sides had competitive primaries. Even this year, it's not total apples to apples because Shapiro was unopposed

2022 Senate

Republican: 1,319,452 (52.6%)
Democratic: 1,186,333 (47.4%)

Not bad for the Dems since they had a relatively non-competitive Senate primary and no Gubernatorial primary while the GOP had a complete clown car in both.

+ likely to get tighter, since GOP has ~30k mail-ins left while Dems have ~70k.

[Sol]

Why did Barnette win Potter County?

Potter does have a reputation for far-right movements--I'm assuming the White Supremacists there aren't supporting Barnette but the local culture probably makes them well-disposed to the most right-wing candidate.

[GALeftist]

I can't decide what I want to happen in PA-SEN. On the one hand I think the Trump meltdown if McCormick comes back on Oz from late counted mail ballots would be hilarious but on the other hand I don't know if the nutjobs will stay home with Mastriano on the ballot.

[2016]

I already viewed the PA-GOV, PA-SEN Races as certain loss for Republicans.

Trump should not endorse McCormick for the GE if he wins.

Republicans shouldn't spent a dime in PA. If McCormick wins he can self-fund and see how far he gets with it.

Republicans have better shots winning GA, AZ, NV and even NH before PA.

[Rat]

So the Penn GOP primary is a deadlock between a former Hedge fund manager that graduated from West Point, fought in the Gulf War, and was a treasury department official under Dubya and...

Dr. Oz, reality tv host who got a Trump endorsement.

The state of the GOP, folks.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman passes 700K votes.

[Greedo punched first]

Is there a large grassroots movement on the left in Oregon?

[Matty]

Out of only 332 mail votes that just dropped in Erie, McCormick gained *40* votes. A 57-43 margin over Oz

If the estimates are true that 50k votes are left to count, I don’t see how McCormick doesn’t come close to tying it

[Greedo punched first]

If McCormick wins the primary, will Trump refuse to endorse him?

[wbrocks67]

Out of only 332 mail votes that just dropped in Erie, McCormick gained *40* votes. A 57-43 margin over Oz

If the estimates are true that 50k votes are left to count, I don’t see how McCormick doesn’t come close to tying it

There aren't 50K. There were at most 32K mail-ins, but that was earlier this morning, so there's probably like only 25-30k left now.

[Umengus]

I already viewed the PA-GOV, PA-SEN Races as certain loss for Republicans.

Trump should not endorse McCormick for the GE if he wins.

Republicans shouldn't spent a dime in PA. If McCormick wins he can self-fund and see how far he gets with it.

Republicans have better shots winning GA, AZ, NV and even NH before PA.

Disagree. Fetterman is weak too. Lamb was a better choice for dem.

[Matty]

Out of only 332 mail votes that just dropped in Erie, McCormick gained *40* votes. A 57-43 margin over Oz

If the estimates are true that 50k votes are left to count, I don’t see how McCormick doesn’t come close to tying it

There aren't 50K. There were at most 32K mail-ins, but that was earlier this morning, so there's probably like only 25-30k left now.

Kornacki says it’s more than 32k

[wbrocks67]

Out of only 332 mail votes that just dropped in Erie, McCormick gained *40* votes. A 57-43 margin over Oz

If the estimates are true that 50k votes are left to count, I don’t see how McCormick doesn’t come close to tying it

There aren't 50K. There were at most 32K mail-ins, but that was earlier this morning, so there's probably like only 25-30k left now.

Kornacki says it’s more than 32k

Where? The overall universe this morning was 105K. GOP had 32K initially, which would make senes then for Dems to have ~73K since they were a majority of the mail ins.

[n1240]

Out of only 332 mail votes that just dropped in Erie, McCormick gained *40* votes. A 57-43 margin over Oz

If the estimates are true that 50k votes are left to count, I don’t see how McCormick doesn’t come close to tying it

There aren't 50K. There were at most 32K mail-ins, but that was earlier this morning, so there's probably like only 25-30k left now.

Kornacki says it’s more than 32k

Kornacki's analysis was flawed because he forgot to account for undervote and write-ins, it's probably closer to around 20k mail left after what was been counted so far today.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1526997164974653440?t=7HCmOtJjshTkoGdHpDtCbg&...

Positive news for Oz.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1526997164974653440?t=7HCmOtJjshTkoGdHpDtCbg&...

Positive news for Oz.

Really missed an opportunity there, AD: "positive prognosis for Oz".