2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Brittain33]

No is outrunning Biden by exactly 25 points in rural Harvey County

Harvey went for Kelly in 2018, right?

You are correct, it was a bellwether for that race.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/kansas/governor/

She got 47% there. No is currently getting 64% (but caveats, maybe this is early or partial vote.)

[Alben Barkley]

Wasserman just called MI-11 for Stevens

Yuck.

I donated to her lol, guess it paid off!

[GALeftist]

Levin up 18% with 37% in. Surprises me a bit.

Their vote shares just switched on NYT? Not sure what happened there

Probably a computer/entry error.

I've seen enough: Stevens wins this one.

TBH, that margin doesn't seem insurmountable if they counted earlies/mail-ins first. If not, though, yeah, I'm ready to call it.

Is there any reason to think Levin would benefit if they did? I don't recall progressive candidates doing better on same day votes than "moderate" Democrats in the 2020 or subsequent primaries compared to mail-in/early. My memory could be wrong on that though.

Yeah, election day votes saved Summer Lee in PA-12 for example. They tend to be more progressive than earlies or mail-ins.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL at Brown

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Levin up 18% with 37% in. Surprises me a bit.

Their vote shares just switched on NYT? Not sure what happened there

Probably a computer/entry error.

I've seen enough: Stevens wins this one.

TBH, that margin doesn't seem insurmountable if they counted earlies/mail-ins first. If not, though, yeah, I'm ready to call it.

Is there any reason to think Levin would benefit if they did? I don't recall progressive candidates doing better on same day votes than "moderate" Democrats in the 2020 or subsequent primaries compared to mail-in/early. My memory could be wrong on that though.

Yeah, election day votes saved Summer Lee in PA-12 for example. They tend to be more progressive than earlies or mail-ins.

But Stevens is a 2018 wave candidate and is not therefore a progressive cup of tea.

[Alben Barkley]

Nate Silver seems almost ready to call it for "No!"

Other sources have results from a half dozen counties, Sarah, and I don’t think there’s any intrinsic reason why you couldn’t extrapolate from one county. Like in 2024, if early results suggest that the Democratic nominee is losing in Brooklyn (Kings County) we can be pretty sure they’re losing the election.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It doesn’t look like it’ll even be close. Thank god

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Nate Silver seems almost ready to call it for "No!"

Other sources have results from a half dozen counties, Sarah, and I don’t think there’s any intrinsic reason why you couldn’t extrapolate from one county. Like in 2024, if early results suggest that the Democratic nominee is losing in Brooklyn (Kings County) we can be pretty sure they’re losing the election.

What do the real political forecasters think though?

[Horus]

Levin up 18% with 37% in. Surprises me a bit.

Their vote shares just switched on NYT? Not sure what happened there

Probably a computer/entry error.

I've seen enough: Stevens wins this one.

TBH, that margin doesn't seem insurmountable if they counted earlies/mail-ins first. If not, though, yeah, I'm ready to call it.

Is there any reason to think Levin would benefit if they did? I don't recall progressive candidates doing better on same day votes than "moderate" Democrats in the 2020 or subsequent primaries compared to mail-in/early. My memory could be wrong on that though.

Yeah, election day votes saved Summer Lee in PA-12 for example. They tend to be more progressive than earlies or mail-ins.

But Stevens is a 2018 wave candidate and is not therefore a progressive cup of tea.

Levin works with the squad all the time and had the progressive support consolidated. There is no left wing antisemitism in the US and not a whole lot internationally either.

[Nyvin]

But Stevens is a 2018 wave candidate and Levin is a Jew. Neither are therefore a progressive cup of tea.

What does being a jew have to do with it?  Bernie Sanders is a jew, so is Brian Schatz.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

25 point overperformance in Ellsworth

[Brittain33]

We have our first Yes county on DDHQ where with partial results, Clay County is for the amendment. No is still outrunning Biden by 19%.

[Alben Barkley]

If this holds, and "No" wins by a significant margin in KANSAS, well I think maybe Trump was on to something when he said maybe overturning Roe v. Wade would be electorally bad for Republicans...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL Kobach is only up by 3%

[GALeftist]

Yeah on the bright side No is outperforming my (extremely unsophisticated) benchmarks thus far and it looks like Tlaib and Bush are going to romp.

[Alben Barkley]

LOL Kobach is only up by 3%

LOL.

Is it too early for me to start celebrating and pulling out the Trump loses 2020 memes again?

Oh well, I'm doing it anyway. I missed that hopium!

[Senator Incitatus]

Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

Yes, according to 538.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The overperformance is seemingly different for each county. There's like a 10% difference between Ellsworth and Phillips.

[Alben Barkley]

Kansas is conveniently centrally located so it works well as a safe haven for women seeking abortions in much of middle America.

[Senator Incitatus]

Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

Yes, according to 538.

Thanks; bodes well for Kobach and gives Yes a fighting chance.

[Pink Panther]

Schmitt has a ten point lead with 3% in accounting to CNN.

[Brittain33]

Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

They must be, because if not, No would be on track to win with more than 60%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The overperformance is only 6% in Meade. WTF?

[Politician]

Meijer getting trucked so far in MI-3