2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling UT-2 R for Stewart!

Uncalled:

OK-SEN D Slot 2
OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
IL-SEN R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-15 R
IL-17 D
IL-AG R
CO-GOV R
CO-3 D
CO-7 R
CO-8 R
UT-SEN R
UT-1 R
UT-3 R
UT-4 R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling CO-7 R for Aadland!
Calling CO-8 R for Kirkmeyer!
In another defeat for Trump, CO-GOV R goes for Ganahl!
Calling IL-AG R for DeVore!
Calling UT-3 R for Curtis!

Uncalled:

OK-SEN D Slot 2
OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
IL-SEN R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-15 R
IL-17 D
CO-3 D
UT-SEN R
UT-1 R
UT-4 R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1541968102514106368

Republicans evidently got a much better Senate nominee in Colorado than they did in Georgia or Pennsylvania.

[LAB-LIB]

Wow, Dem ahead by 5% in NE-01 with 71% in.

Only early votes reporting from every county.  ABC News says 35% reporting, which makes more sense.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nebraska-2022-primary-election-results/story?id=84596290

That would still make more sense. Found the NYT results page and they have it at 42% in.

Regardless is Pansing Brooks can keep it somewhat close it would be a big surprise.

Knew it was too good to be true.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling UT-SEN R for Lee!
Calling UT-4 R for Owens!

Uncalled:

OK-SEN D Slot 2
OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
IL-SEN R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-15 R
IL-17 D
CO-3 D
UT-1 R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OK-SEN D Slot 2 for Bollinger!
Calling IL-15 R for Miller!

Uncalled:

OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
IL-SEN R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-17 D
CO-3 D
UT-1 R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling CO-3 D for Frisch!
Calling UT-1 R for Moore!

Uncalled:

OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
IL-SEN R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-17 D
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling IL-17 D for Sorenson!

Not expecting to make any further calls tonight.

Uncalled:

OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
IL-SEN R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Senator Incitatus]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

[Senator Incitatus]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

[Utah Neolib]

I am a part of a special operation to uncover the mass ballot fraud Mike Flood has committed.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

[Roll Roons]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Colorado has become a very tough lift, but O'Dea appears to fit the state as well as any Republican possibly could.

Anyway, it's clear that Polis will likely run several points ahead of Bennet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

[Vosem]

Democrats have also already demonstrated some fear of O'Dea since they decided to try to spend heavily to get him to lose the primary, which both failed and -- at least in terms of organizations that might've been cool to him in a general given how moderate he is -- worked to shore up his right flank. Seems like a good candidate for the year and place.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Let's see how he holds up in the GE campaign. Running a moderate campaign can either be really successsful or end up making you look like a fool. I could see him flip-flopping too much or smtg pushing normally Dem-leaning but curious voters out of reach.

A good way to think about Colorado politics at this point is in order for Rs to win statewide, Republicans need to have CO-03, CO-04, CO-05, and CO-08 outvote CO-01, CO-02, CO-06, and CO-07. Tbf, in an R victory CO-07 likely wouldn't be netting Dems many if any votes, but CO-01 and CO-02 are extremely hard to outvote and CO-06 should be enough to cancel out CO-08

I'm curious though how "unnatual" Biden's performance was in Colorado in 2020 because that was a very very heavy swing left.

[Politics Fan]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choiceand iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Based on his website I wouldn’t exactly say he’s pro choice. He seems like more of a moderate on the issue but still supports some restrictions on abortion access.

“ Joe O’Dea strongly supports a nationwide ban on late-term abortion, a nationwide ban on taxpayer funding for abortion, a nationwide parental choice requirement, and will fight any attempt to make religious hospitals perform a procedure they object to. Joe is adamantly against Chuck Schumer’s late term abortion bill, and strongly opposes Jared Polis’ late-term abortion bill. ”

https://www.joeodea.com/lifeleaders

[Politics Fan]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Let's see how he holds up in the GE campaign. Running a moderate campaign can either be really successsful or end up making you look like a fool. I could see him flip-flopping too much or smtg pushing normally Dem-leaning but curious voters out of reach.

A good way to think about Colorado politics at this point is in order for Rs to win statewide, Republicans need to have CO-03, CO-04, CO-05, and CO-08 outvote CO-01, CO-02, CO-06, and CO-07. Tbf, in an R victory CO-07 likely wouldn't be netting Dems many if any votes, but CO-01 and CO-02 are extremely hard to outvote and CO-06 should be enough to cancel out CO-08

I'm curious though how "unnatual" Biden's performance was in Colorado in 2020 because that was a very very heavy swing left.

It’s possible that Democrats have simply just hit a ceiling in the state. Biden didn’t win the state by much less than he did so with NJ 13.5% v 15.94%. Similar to NJ you still have a strong conservative minority the non Denver metro which I do think prevents democrats from absolutely running away with the state and I’m not sure that’ll really change. Conversely I imagine the Dem base is fairly close to 50% so losing state wide will prob be a rare occurrence.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choiceand iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Based on his website I wouldn’t exactly say he’s pro choice. He seems like more of a moderate on the issue but still supports some restrictions on abortion access.

“ Joe O’Dea strongly supports a nationwide ban on late-term abortion, a nationwide ban on taxpayer funding for abortion, a nationwide parental choice requirement, and will fight any attempt to make religious hospitals perform a procedure they object to. Joe is adamantly against Chuck Schumer’s late term abortion bill, and strongly opposes Jared Polis’ late-term abortion bill. ”

https://www.joeodea.com/lifeleaders

He's not ninth-month pro-choice (which is what Schumer's and Polis's bill allows), but he looks like a SJW compared to most GOP elected officials:

Joe does not support a ban in the case of rape, incest, or the life of the mother or early in the pregnancy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Additional Results:

OK-AG R - Drummond
OK-Corporation Commissioner R - David/Thomsen RUNOFF
OK-Labor Commissioner R - Osborn/Roberts RUNOFF
OK-Superintendent R - Walters/Grace RUNOFF
OK-Treasurer R - Russ/Jolley RUNOFF
IL-SEN R - Salvi
IL-1 D - Jackson
IL-5 R - Hanson
IL-6 R - Pekau
IL-7 D - Davis
IL-8 R - Dargis
IL-11 R - Lauf
IL-13 R - Deering
IL-14 R - Gryder

Uncalled:
IL-1 R
IL-2 R
IL-12 D
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It’s a shame Danny Davis managed to hang on.  He has ties to the Moonies and the district could probably do a lot better.

EDIT: also:

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

First, let me say that I was kinda dismissive in my response to your post in a way that wasn’t very nice, so I apologize for that.  Here is why I think O’Dea has no chance.  First, Colorado was already a very anti-Trump leftward-trending blue state where Republicans can still win, but will face a very uphill climb statewide even in a good year.  While VA isn’t a terrible comparison, I actually think Republicans generally face steeper odds statewide in Colorado.  

Now O’Dea is trying to build the right profile here and I do think he’ll do better than he “should” on paper.  He may even keep things to about ~5%, but I don’t think he has any chance of actually beating Bennet and that’s what I base my rating on.  Moreover, O’Dea is attempting to walk an extremely difficult tightrope and it’s at least as likely that he actually underperforms due to pissing off the extremely SoCon Republican base.  

However, the biggest blow to O’Dea’s chances is Dobbs.  Colorado is exactly the type of blue state where Dobbs is likely to cripple Republicans efforts to eek out a wave-driven statewide win or two on Democratic turf.  O’Dea can say whatever he wants about abortion, but no pro-choice voters are gonna believe him when he says that he opposes an abortion ban.  Fairly or unfairly, the R next to his name neutralizes any assurances O’Dea might provide.  

Plus, he’s going about his appeals to center-left independents and persuadable Democratic voters the wrong way in terms of his language.  For example, promising to be the “Joe Manchin of the Republicans” is dumb b/c you’ll annoy Republicans and most non-Republicans (assuming they even know who Manchin is) hate Manchin.  To the extent anyone knows who he’s talking about, it’s gonna be a strike against him.

As for supporting BIF, rightly or wrongly, most voters in general are not and were not particularly invested in the version of that bill.  It got stripped of the stuff that was really popular like negotiating drug prices, keeping down Obamacare subsidies, extending the child tax credit, universal pre-K, and Medicaid expansion.  Given the state he’s running in, O’Dea needs to convince voters that he is a socially liberal; fiscally center-right #ModerateHero  But that’s just to have any chance and unproven assurances you’d be a moderate simply don’t cut it in a post-Dobbs world.  And unlike Sununu, O’Dea lacks a public office platform where he can engage in virtue signaling to convince weary center-left voters he’ll put his money where his mouth is.  

Additionally, Trump is just as much of an anathema to suburbia as ever and you need to keep the down Democratic margins there in a big way to win in Colorado statewide as a Republican.  Unlike Udall, Bennet isn’t under constant attack from hostile local media outlets and Bennet clearly has not been asleep at the wheel.  

Now you may say spending money to boost Hanks shows Democrats feared O’Dea to which I say that in a rough environment, why not try to help make sure the other side nominates its weakest candidate if there is an opening?  Even in a race that seems pretty safe, weird things happen in big waves and it’s just one less thing you have to keep an eye on.  It merely shows Democrats thought Hanks was the weaker candidate, not that they feared O’Dea.  And unlike Hickenlooper, Bennet doesn’t really have any glaring weaknesses that might cause him to underperform in the right (or wrong, depending on your perspective) environment.

Finally, no one has really made the case for why hardline anti-Trump, socially liberal center-left voters in suburbia would back a Republican who says “no, but…but…but guys, I promise I really am pro-choice…well…mostly pro-choice…pro-life with exceptions, but you can totally trust me” over a Democratic Senator with an actual pro-choice record and who is generally a good fit for his state.