2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The AP has finally called CA-22 Slot 2 for the Incumbent David G. Valadao!
https://apnews.com/article/california-donald-trump-congress-david-valadao-government-and-politics-de9f2688e0f82ec44c71ecb3dfe83a83

Valadao thus far I believe is the only Republican Incumbent Congressman who managed to survive his Impeachment Vote.

Ironically, I actually think there’s a very real chance Valadao loses the GE for completely unrelated reasons.  The new district definitely contains less of the types of areas where Valadao traditionally over-performed most and IIRC also contains much more of the types of areas where Rudy Salas has the greatest appeal.  

For that matter, Valadao’s performance in the new district’s Republican base against some extremely weak primary competition.  His main Republican opponent was an unheralded some dude who carpetbagged to NM to run for Congress two years ago and then carpetbagged from there to run here in 2022 IIRC and received little backing or attention from national Trumpists.  In fact, I don’t even think Trump remembers who Valadao is tbh.  

Under the circumstances, Valadao’s performance among in reliably conservative Kings County was pathetic and it’s clear that he’d have lost to an even semi-competent MAGA challenger.  Even if he were just facing Salas and the third place finisher instead of also facing a second weak Republican challenger, he’d have likely come in third.  There is definitely a lack of local Republican enthusiasm for Valadao, at least among Kings County Republicans.

By contrast, Salas turned in a solid performance in the all Party primary given that his 45.4% is almost certainly a significantly lower vote share than he will get in November barring some unforeseeable scandal or what-have-you (at worst, it’s lower than Salas’ floor in the GE).  Historically speaking, as a rule Democratic challengers and open seat candidates (in competitive races) tend to dramatically underperform in the all-party primary compared to November, including in both Democratic and Republican wave years.  This has been true in Hispanic Central Valley districts, affluent Orange County seats, and everywhere in between.  Republicans have often tried to weaponize this,* with mixed results.  

This is a seat that should be on the watch list of seats that could very well buck the CW even with a Republican wave.  The only thing that really gives me pause here (and might be enough to save Valadao in this environment) is that while Rio Grande Hispanics are zooming rightward and there is evidence of at least some sort of rightward shift nationally among Hispanics (albeit a much, much smaller one than in the RGV which seems to be its own regionally idiosyncratic phenomenon), we don’t really know yet how much of it was driven nationally by low-propensity minority voters who actually showed up in 2020 being much more Trump-friendly than their respective groups as a whole.  

Ultimately, while Valadao could certainly hang on, I actually have this race at tossup Tilt D (although that’s only b/c I don’t do the “pure tossup” cop out in my predictions, same with how I have Slotkin’s race at Tilt R even though it’s basically a coin flip).  I will say that Salas would be wise to focus on healthcare, social safety net economic programs, etc rather than the more social-issue focused message I suspect national Democrats will be going with after yesterday’s events**, this isn’t the sort of place where the latter is likely to be a winning strategy.

*successfully boxing Dems out of the GE in CA-31 in 2012, CA-25 in 2014, and nearly doing so in CA-31 in 2014, CA-10 in 2018, CA-39 in 2018, CA-48 in 2018).  

**That said, I do think Roe being overturned will hurt Republicans a lot in the midterms, wave or no wave.  As someone else noted, the fact that even MTG and Marsha Blackburn were initially trying to be pretty circumspect/non-inflammatory (by their standards) in how they talked about the Dobbs decision really tells you all you need to know.  I remember reading a while back that polling generally showed ~20% of Trump voters in most Midwestern and Rust Belt states were pro-choice.  

We’re even starting to see articles pop up about how Trump is privately telling folks he thinks this will hurt both him and Republicans in general.  And even when the draft opinion leaked, folks like McConnell were clearly trying to downplay this as an issue.  This is a fight Republicans are clearly afraid of having and I suspect the reason is that their own internal polling consistently shows that this is not only a losing issue for them, but one that actually costs them a significant amount of support from folks who would’ve otherwise voted Republican, but I digress

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling DC Shadow Rep. D for Owolewa!
Calling CA-2 Slot 2 for Brower!
Calling CA-22 Slot 2 for Valadao!

Uncalled:

CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's previews of tonight's elections:

Democratic: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/9-democratic-primaries-to-watch-in-illinois-and-new-york/

Republican (plus the NE-1 special): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/21-republican-primaries-and-a-special-election-to-watch-on-june-28/

[wbrocks67]

Who is more likely to win? Casten or Newman?

Newman seems to have really screwed herself with the bribery scandal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who is more likely to win? Casten or Newman?

Newman seems to have really screwed herself with the bribery scandal.

Agreed, and I think Casten will win.

[Gracile]

Who is more likely to win? Casten or Newman?

Newman seems to have really screwed herself with the bribery scandal.

I think Casten will win, but I expect it to be a closer race based on the little polling we have and because Newman still maintains a geographic advantage that will at least provide her with a solid floor. The bribery scandal didn't help her, yes, but this is something that, as far as I can tell, has been forgotten about after the initial bad news cycle. A Newman win wouldn't surprise me, either.

[Zenobiyl]

Who is more likely to win? Casten or Newman?

Newman seems to have really screwed herself with the bribery scandal.

Casten.

[Green Line]

Dowell IL 1.  Very divided field but she has best organization here.
Ramirez IL 3.  White libs push her over the line.
Casten IL 6.  He will romp in dupage and she will underperform in Cook.
Davis in IL 7.  This will be very close.

Pekau IL 6.  Bigger name recognition and grassroots support vs Grasso.  Ives endorsement will help bigly in DuPage.
Davis IL 15.  Rodney is established and central IL is not a firebrand area.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-illinois-colorado-new-york-oklahoma-utah-mississippi-nebraska.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

We start with runoffs in SC for D Senate and R superintendent at 7 ET. More major primaries across the country begin at 8 ET.

This thread will NOT cover the Special Senate Primary in Oklahoma or the Special General Election in NE-1. Please refer to the stickied congressional special elections thread for that content.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-illinois-colorado-new-york-oklahoma-utah-mississippi-nebraska.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

We start with runoffs in SC for D Senate and R superintendent at 7 ET. More major primaries across the country begin at 8 ET.

This thread will NOT cover the Special Senate Primary in Oklahoma or the Special General Election in NE-1. Please refer to the stickied congressional special elections thread for that content.

Why? I know you started the thread but unless you are a moderator it is not up to you what can be posted in it. For better or worse this has turned into a primary night mega thread and that includes specials IMO. If I have anything to say about NE-01 (which I don't expect to as it will be a blowout) I would just as soon post it here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-illinois-colorado-new-york-oklahoma-utah-mississippi-nebraska.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

We start with runoffs in SC for D Senate and R superintendent at 7 ET. More major primaries across the country begin at 8 ET.

This thread will NOT cover the Special Senate Primary in Oklahoma or the Special General Election in NE-1. Please refer to the stickied congressional special elections thread for that content.

Why? I know you started the thread but unless you are a moderator it is not up to you what can be posted in it. For better or worse this has turned into a primary night mega thread and that includes specials IMO. If I have anything to say about NE-01 (which I don't expect to as it will be a blowout) I would just as soon post it here.

It'd be best to get the mods' decision on this for there to be a standard, but I actually do agree with Wulfric here: special elections are a different beast than primaries and it's useful to have all of their results compiled in a separate megathread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-illinois-colorado-new-york-oklahoma-utah-mississippi-nebraska.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

We start with runoffs in SC for D Senate and R superintendent at 7 ET. More major primaries across the country begin at 8 ET.

This thread will NOT cover the Special Senate Primary in Oklahoma or the Special General Election in NE-1. Please refer to the stickied congressional special elections thread for that content.

Why? I know you started the thread but unless you are a moderator it is not up to you what can be posted in it. For better or worse this has turned into a primary night mega thread and that includes specials IMO. If I have anything to say about NE-01 (which I don't expect to as it will be a blowout) I would just as soon post it here.

It'd be best to get the mods' decision on this for there to be a standard, but I actually do agree with Wulfric here: special elections are a different beast than primaries and it's useful to have all of their results compiled in a separate megathread.

My opinion -- and I'm not the only mod for this board -- is that this thread is the de facto "election night results" thread for all elections, so I don't see a problem with people posting results from special elections occurring on the same night here.  However, I also agree with your point that it's useful to have all special results in one thread.  So I suggest continuing to maintain the separate special election thread, but not trying to keep discussions about specials out of this one.  If Wulfric or anyone else only wants to post about specials in the specials thread, that's up to them, but it shouldn't be required for everyone.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling IL-GOV D for Pritzker!
Calling OK-SEN R for Lankford!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OK-3 R for Lucas!
Calling OK-4 R for Cole!
Calling OK-5 R for Bice!
Calling OK-GOV D for Hofmeister!
Calling OK-GOV R for Stitt!

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's live blog for tonight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/ny-illinois-colorado-election-2022/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling IL-6 D for Casten!
Calling IL-13 D for Budzinski!

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1541940951723253760

Some caveats (early vote, turf that Davis had). But this will not be a blowout like WV-02 was. Maybe Rodney can pull this out…

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541944750420402176

Big win for House progressives here.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OK-Auditor R for Byrd!

Uncalled:

OK-SEN D
OK-2 R
OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
MS-2 R
MS-3 R
MS-4 R
SC-SEN D
SC-Superintendent R
IL-GOV R
IL-SEN R
IL-SOS D & R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-3 D
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 D & R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-15 R
IL-16 R
IL-17 D & R
IL-AG R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Big win, Sean Casten is a great representative.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541946761991921666?t=vFxCsSfyjtibUtYoi10D...

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling SC Superintendent R for Weaver!
Calling IL-16 R for LaHood!
Calling IL-3 D for Ramirez!

Uncalled:

OK-SEN D
OK-2 R
OK-AG R
OK-Corporation Commissioner R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
OK-Treasurer R
MS-2 R
MS-3 R
MS-4 R
SC-SEN D
IL-GOV R
IL-SEN R
IL-SOS D & R
IL-1 D & R
IL-2 R
IL-5 R
IL-6 R
IL-7 D
IL-8 D & R
IL-11 R
IL-12 D
IL-13 R
IL-14 R
IL-15 R
IL-17 D & R
IL-AG R
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2

[Gracile]

Big win, Sean Casten is a great representative. Also I think this is the first loss for an incumbent DSA congresswoman in a primary.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541946761991921666?t=vFxCsSfyjtibUtYoi10D...

Newman is not a DSA member/politician.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Big win, Sean Casten is a great representative. Also I think this is the first loss for an incumbent DSA congresswoman in a primary.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541946761991921666?t=vFxCsSfyjtibUtYoi10D...

Newman is not a DSA member/politician.

Oh sorry I thought she was, given all the specualtion about her being part of the squad

[GALeftist]

Big win, Sean Casten is a great representative. Also I think this is the first loss for an incumbent DSA congresswoman in a primary.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541946761991921666?t=vFxCsSfyjtibUtYoi10D...

Newman isn't DSA I think although she ran to Casten's left. Not broken up about it regardless, the bribery was a very bad look and I'm far more excited about Delia Ramirez and hopefully Jonathan Jackson and/or Kina Collins.

[Mexican Wolf]

Joy Hofmeister got the nod for OK-Gov.