Iowa all Trump district Democrats retiring in state house, 16 in total

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1497954799282753539?cxt=HHwWhsC4zYL95s...

[Schiff for Senate]

The GOP will 100% get a supermajority there this November. That's all I can say.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Iowa is as gone for the Democrats as is Colorado for Republicans.

[Roll Roons]

Again, this state was easily won twice not that long ago by a black man from the South Side of Chicago whose middle name is Hussein. It is a damning indictment of the Democratic Party that they've largely ceased to be competitive here.

Anyway, I genuinely wonder if it's possible that Iowa votes to the right of Kansas or maybe even Missouri in 2024.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lmao, Iowa is as gone for the Democrats as is Colorado for Republicans.

I can't believe I'm saying this (for a long time I've tried to convince myself that IA can still, under the right circumstances, go blue again), but good comparison.

Again, this state was won twice by a black man from the South Side of Chicago whose middle name is Hussein. It is a damning indictment of the Democratic Party that they've largely ceased to be competitive here.

Anyway, I genuinely wonder if it's possible that Iowa votes to the right of Kansas or maybe even Missouri in 2024.

To the first paragraph - Iowans have never been very racist or as concerned about Obama's race/name than other rurals (like, say, in the south). Iowa was one of the first states to allow gay marriage or something if I remember rightly. The fact is that Obama was a GOOD fit for IA, not a BAD fit at all - yes, IA is very white, but as I said, race isn't a big factor there, and what was probably a bigger factor was Obama being a fellow Midwesterner and being, well, somehwat populist (2008 - Hope and Change; 2012 - his opponent was Mitt Romney). And then Trump and Clinton came along. Trump was, for obvious reasons, a way better fit than McCain, Romney or Dubya, and Clinton was a terrible fit and much, much worse than Obama. No surprise, Clinton lost comfortably. 2020 - by then most Trump voters were fairly hyperpolarized and ingrained, and though Biden was probably a better fit in some ways than Clinton, it was still far from enough to flip the state. IA's whiteness and rural-ness has finally caught up with the Democrats thanks to Trump. And really, it's no 'indictment' of the party that they can't win there anymore - what should say more is that they won there as recently as 2012 in the first place. They should be impressed that they were able to win there in 3 out of 4 presidential elections from 2000-2012, honestly, and sad as it is, it's time to write it off completely and focus where trends are more beneficial - AZ, TX, GA.

To the second paragraph - no to both. No chance of KS voting to the left of IA, despite KS' recent leftward trend and IA's rightward trend, and absolutely zero chance of MO voting to the left of IA (it's trended rightward in the Trump era, too, and not too much less than IA, and it voted something like - if memory serves correct - 10 points to IA's right, so there's no way it somehow covers that gap up in 4, or even 8, years).

[Tekken_Guy]

Was Finkenauer's 2018 win a fluke? Would she even have won if not for the ethics scandals that Blum had?

[SnowLabrador]

Lmao, Iowa is as gone for the Democrats as is Colorado for Republicans.

A weak comparison, given that Colorado's a lot like Virginia, which just went red. That being said, Iowa is absolutely gone for Democrats.

[Frodo]

So we are looking at a 75:25 GOP majority in the Iowa House by next January.  How about the Iowa Senate where the GOP has a rough two-to-one majority at the moment?  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redistricting must really be making Ds nervous here. All the seats changing harms Democrats' incumbency advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL this is IA it's turning into AR, it have very few BlKs it's a rural state, Reynolds is very popular

IA has no bearing on other red states which have Latinos and BlKs, there are BlKs there aren't any Latinos or Asians

Like Tx Beto is only down 7 or Beasley in NC they can both win

[MT Treasurer]

Redistricting must really be making Ds nervous here. All the seats changing harms Democrats' incumbency advantage.

I’m sure they’re just retiring because of redistricting...

Anyway, IA will be an absolute slaughterhouse for Democrats in November — all the statewide elected Democratic officials (including Miller and Fitzgerald, finally) will lose, their Congressional delegation will be entirely Republican in 2023, and Democrats will suffer additional (heavy) losses in the legislature for historic R majorities in both chambers. Complete and utter decimation.

IA voting (slightly) to the right of KS and MO even in 2024 is very possible, btw. (the same people who are now adamant that there is "zero chance" of this happening already embarrassed themselves with awful IA predictions in the past and are just as confident now as they were back then). MO actually trended Democratic in 2020 and has rural/small-town areas that are very close to maxed out for the GOP (hardly the case in IA), in addition to more D-friendly suburban shifts than IA.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lmao, Iowa is as gone for the Democrats as is Colorado for Republicans.

Yup, that's a fitting comparison. Either can get sort of close in a wave election though.

[jamestroll]

Redistricting must really be making Ds nervous here. All the seats changing harms Democrats' incumbency advantage.

I’m sure they’re just retiring because of redistricting...

Anyway, IA will be an absolute slaughterhouse for Democrats in November — all the statewide elected Democratic officials (including Miller and Fitzgerald, finally) will lose, their Congressional delegation will be entirely Republican in 2023, and Democrats will suffer additional (heavy) losses in the legislature for historic R majorities in both chambers. Complete and utter decimation.

IA voting (slightly) to the right of KS and MO even in 2024 is very possible, btw. (the same people who are now adamant that there is "zero chance" of this happening already embarrassed themselves with awful IA predictions in the past and are just as confident now as they were back then). MO actually trended Democratic in 2020 and has rural/small-town areas that are very close to maxed out for the GOP (hardly the case in IA), in addition to more D-friendly suburban shifts than IA.

I agree that MO could vote to the left of Iowa but I know Missouri suburbs well and they have very little reason to vote Democratic.

Very little diversity and culturally conservative.

Even if MO-05 kept in tack, it could be vulnerable in 2022 or any strong GOP year anyway.

[One Term Floridian]

IA turning into the next AR/WV but shifting in less than half the time those two states took because of rapid polarization. Sad to see really

[Roll Roons]

IA turning into the next AR/WV but shifting in less than half the time those two states took because of rapid polarization. Sad to see really

I think the cities will keep it from going that level of red. IN or MO level seems more likely.

[One Term Floridian]

IA turning into the next AR/WV but shifting in less than half the time those two states took because of rapid polarization. Sad to see really

I think the cities will keep it from going that level of red. IN or MO level seems more likely.

You're right. I was mostly referring to the speed at which Dems are getting shut out of the state

[Mr.Phips]

So we are looking at a 75:25 GOP majority in the Iowa House by next January.  How about the Iowa Senate where the GOP has a rough two-to-one majority at the moment?  

No will be more like 70-30R.  Senate likely to be 35-15 R.

[lfromnj]

So we are looking at a 75:25 GOP majority in the Iowa House by next January.  How about the Iowa Senate where the GOP has a rough two-to-one majority at the moment?  

No will be more like 70-30R.  Senate likely to be 35-15 R.

https://projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/iowa

Cnalysis says 66 33 -1 rn for the house although they may be generous with the number of tilt Ds towards Democrats. Flipping all the tilts and the tossup to Rs does give a 73 27 super majority. They say 24 seats are safe which I assume are actually safe.

[Roll Roons]

Speaking of Iowa, former Republican Congressman David Young (who lost reelection in 2018 and a comeback bid in 2020) is running for an open swing House seat in Dallas County: https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2022/02/28/david-young-running-in-iowa-house-district-28/

[Suburbia]

Lmao, Iowa is as gone for the Democrats as is Colorado for Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is the MO of the Midwest now

[Mopsus]

IA is the MO of the Midwest now

Isn't Missouri the Missouri of the Midwest?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IA is the MO of the Midwest now

Isn't Missouri the Missouri of the Midwest?

Missouri is the Missouri of the South

[Mopsus]

IA is the MO of the Midwest now

Isn't Missouri the Missouri of the Midwest?

Missouri is the Missouri of the South

It's the westernmost eastern state, the easternmost western state, the southernmost northern state, and the northernmost southern state.

[Chips]

There's a good chance of a GOP supermajority after November.