If Putin seizes control of all of Ukraine...

[John Dule]

I think Transnistria is more likely than not to be annexed fairly quickly if it finds itself bordering Russia. Less sure about Belarus, but Lukashenko will probably allow it to be subsumed at some point in the not-so-distant future.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think Transnistria is more likely than not to be annexed fairly quickly if it finds itself bordering Russia. Less sure about Belarus, but Lukashenko will probably allow it to be subsumed at some point in the not-so-distant future.

Does Russia want to annex them?  I feel like Russia would prefer to have a bunch of little fiefdoms run by corrupt puppets like Lukashenko that can give it extra votes in the U.N. and the appearance of some sort of coalition of independent states.

[Ferguson97]

Isn't Belarus basically a puppet regime anyway?

[Aurelius]

Isn't Belarus basically a puppet regime anyway?

Kind of. Lukashenko spent two decades playing Russia and the West against each other for economic concessions. Last summer, when the popular uprising happened, Putin said he'd bail Luka out if and only if Luka recommitted to the Union State and returned firmly to Russia's camp. Luka still has tremendous power within Belarus, independently of Russia, but he is now forced to follow Russia's lead on foreign policy.

[Person Man]

Isn't Belarus basically a puppet regime anyway?

Kind of. Lukashenko spent two decades playing Russia and the West against each other for economic concessions. Last summer, when the popular uprising happened, Putin said he'd bail Luka out if and only if Luka recommitted to the Union State and returned firmly to Russia's camp. Luka still has tremendous power within Belarus, independently of Russia, but he is now forced to follow Russia's lead on foreign policy.

So he basically is already part of Russia.

[BlueSwan]

Isn't Belarus basically a puppet regime anyway?

Yes, exactly. So there isn't much need for Russia to annex Belarus. But rest assured that Russia will react if the people of Belarus finally manage to overthrow Lukashenko at some point (which almost happened fairly recently).

[Blue3]

Putin has long said he wants Belarus to officially become a part of Russia again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin has long said he wants Belarus to officially become a part of Russia again.

He has long said it, but until now has done little about it.

[Person Man]

Putin has long said he wants Belarus to officially become a part of Russia again.

He has long said it, but until now has done little about it.

If he think he can do it, he will do it.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The trouble with client states is that they often cause immense headaches for their patrons. The US knows this well enough, and so did the predecessor state to the Russian Federation.