Missouri Primary (Event)

[ElectionAtlas]

This is the thread linked to the Missouri Primary Calendar event.

[© tweed]

Missouri Poll Taken 1/9-11:

(Gephardt 37%)
Dean 19%
Clark 15%
Kerry 6%
Lieberman 5%
Edwards 5%
others 6%
undecided 6%

[MAS117]

you cant really use that. if gephardt endorses someone he will be in the top there

[© tweed]

you cant really use that. if gephardt endorses someone he will be in the top there

It's all I got right now.

[Gustaf]

you cant really use that. if gephardt endorses someone he will be in the top there

I agree, it will be really interesting to see where MO goes, but it doesn't look like Gephardt is intending to endorse anyone at the moment.

[© tweed]

If it's Edwards v. Kerry, Edwards will win there narrowly unless Gephardt endorses Kerry.

[emergingDmajority1]

it seems to me that behind the scenes Edwards is making the biggest push for the Gephardt endorsement. It would make sense for him.

[© tweed]

it seems to me that behind the scenes Edwards is making the biggest push for the Gephardt endorsement. It would make sense for him.

I'm not so sure Gephardt will endorse anybody.

[Gustaf]

it seems to me that behind the scenes Edwards is making the biggest push for the Gephardt endorsement. It would make sense for him.

I'm not so sure Gephardt will endorse anybody.

I think Edwards needs a really good result on Feb 3rd to get the neccessary momentum, otherwise he's toast.

[© tweed]

it seems to me that behind the scenes Edwards is making the biggest push for the Gephardt endorsement. It would make sense for him.

I'm not so sure Gephardt will endorse anybody.

I think Edwards needs a really good result on Feb 3rd to get the neccessary momentum, otherwise he's toast.

If Edwards finishes second in NH, and the newest poll has him only 2% out of second in NH, he will have the necessary momentum to take on Kerry.

[Gustaf]

it seems to me that behind the scenes Edwards is making the biggest push for the Gephardt endorsement. It would make sense for him.

I'm not so sure Gephardt will endorse anybody.

I think Edwards needs a really good result on Feb 3rd to get the neccessary momentum, otherwise he's toast.

If Edwards finishes second in NH, and the newest poll has him only 2% out of second in NH, he will have the necessary momentum to take on Kerry.

I don't know...Kerry will keep his front runner image and in February he has Michigan and Maine coming along adding to his momentum, he is already leading in California and NY should be his territory.

[emergingDmajority1]

I've seen a few polls with Lieberman sneaking up, and they make me a little nervous

but in general the polls this week have been off the wall, some show Kerry up over Dean by 15-20, Some have him up by only 7-9. Some have Edwards up to 15%, some as low as 9%.

I don't know what to predict, but I see the same momentum building for Edwards in NH as it did in Iowa. Dean is stagnant, Clark is faltering.

I just hope he isn't dropped to 4th or 5th

[© tweed]

Dean may fall to fourth or fifth, that would be an interesting scenario.

[Gustaf]

Dean may fall to fourth or fifth, that would be an interesting scenario.

That seems a little unlikely, but if it happens he is so dead. A 2nd place is the only result he can survive, b/c, contrary to Iowa, New Hampshire is Dean's territory, one of the states where he has consistently been doing best. If he can't win there, he can't win anywhere.

[emergingDmajority1]

I'd love to see that, how would the deaniacs spin it? Where would the campaign go? All that money and zero momentum.

but edwards in 2nd in NH is definitely comeback kid material, it should earn him at least one magazine cover.

even a 2nd place finish for dean in NH is dissapointing, no real momentum

[Gustaf]

I'd love to see that, how would the deaniacs spin it? Where would the campaign go? All that money and zero momentum.

It would go to Missouri, and Oklahoma, and South Carolina, and North Dakota, and California and New York and Michigan and then it would go to Washington D.C. to take back the White House! YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAH!

What did you think?

[© tweed]

I'd love to see that, how would the deaniacs spin it?

They wouldn't be able to, Dean wouldn't drop out but would be hammered on 2/3 and then would drop out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NH is/was a Dean stronghold... he needs to win there to keep his campaign alive.

[Gustaf]

NH is/was a Dean stronghold... he needs to win there to keep his campaign alive.

Exactly. I pointed this out somewhere.

[jravnsbo]

everyone moves on after NH.

MO- I don't see Gephardt endorsing anyone until he sees the results of NH.

A lot of his staff has moved to edwards, but edwards is fhaving money problems in hiring and keeping them on.  Very telling.

[M]

Gep is considering moserating a debate in the state of Misery next week... that I've gotta see!

As long as Clark does indeed do terribly tomorrow (which looks likely) Missouri is wide open- but I think it leans Edwards. Gep, as aforementioned, is a major power broker.

The money will come in for Edwards. Question is, how quickly?

[© tweed]

Gep is considering moserating a debate in the state of Misery next week... that I've gotta see!

As long as Clark does indeed do terribly tomorrow (which looks likely) Missouri is wide open- but I think it leans Edwards. Gep, as aforementioned, is a major power broker.

The money will come in for Edwards. Question is, how quickly?

After Feb. 3rd, pretty fast.  If he puts up a good showing...expect $$$.

He should hape opted out of matching funds...

[© tweed]

New Poll released by Survey USA in Mizzo:

Kerry 41%
Edwards 17%
Dean 16%
Clark 8%
other 9%
undecided 9%


Ouch.  If we win SC and ND, we still have a chance, with southern primaries Tennessee and Virginia coming up.

[jravnsbo]

survey usa is very unreliable, waiting for something more reliable.  They have been WAY off int he past.

I do wish they wouldn't do polls now actually.  Polls may influence people, like the kerry 49-Bush 46 Newsweek one, which was bogus too ( ask Mondale how good Newsweek is)

rather let the people vote and make up their minds, plus I hear Sharpton is heading to ST louis to try and rally the balck vote for him there too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survey USA, Zogby and ARG all have dubious track records... and I wouldn't be inclined to believe any of 'em...
They all got Iowa wrong and only ARG was close in New Hampshire..

Unfortunately they seem to be the only companies doing tracking polls...

I realize that you have all heard this time and time again, but the only poll that counts is the one on election day.